[DarkstarZero]

Realtalk.

In the US, the M2CS is likely to fall in value nearly instantly to 60k with and without CCBs optioned as those usually don't make a big difference in resale value, though can make a difference in speed of sale.

After the initial big drop it will fall in value slowly to 40-30k over the next 8-10 years, depending on condition. This is where the depreciation stops. It will maintain that value for 3-5 years after that before finally going up in value around the 13 year old mark. At around 18 years old, I expect average condition cars to be worth original asking price and continue upward from there with exceptional condition examples to go even higher.

I think comparing the M2CS to the M3 Evo, or M3 LTW etc. is incorrect. Instead, imagine if there was an ultimate version of the S54 Z3M, an M car that started its production run with the S50 engine but switched mid-way to S54. That should be the comparison.

If you want to buy the M2CS as an investment that you can drive, wait 10 years.
If you want to buy the ultimate updated version of the 1M concept and initial depreciation doesn't matter to you, buy it new.

Will there be discounts? Well this isn't Europe, we don't get taxed extra for sports cars. On average there's a flat 5% sales tax plus 2k gas guzzler tax. Not as much of a sports car discouragement as Europe deals with. Freedom.

I still think BMW is charging $10k too much for the car in general and missed a real opportunity to release a legend. Imagine if the 1M was $75k new, reviews would have been worse, price to performance wouldn't be there and it would have depreciated to 50k immediately. But because it was released at 50k, price to performance was amazing, driving demand and sending values to 75k a year later. Same car, perception is everything.

All that said, I'm still first on my dealer's waiting list.

[Poochie]

The M2 CS will do fine, you guys are forgetting that regardless of the strength of the economy, people in its price bracket remain unaffected..

To some people with deep pockets, "recession" is merely just a figure of speech and has no bearing on them..

[Tag]

What are the winning lottery numbers for tomorrow?

Ready when you are...

[F87EVO]

The topic is beaten to death already , even without a review ! So you are telling me that in some time the M2CS will fall to 30k ? What will be the M2 and M2 Comp worth in that time ? 10-15k i guess ?

[DarkstarZero]

Originally Posted by F87 M2CS

The topic is beaten to death already , even without a review ! So you are telling me that in some time the M2CS will fall to 30k ? What will be the M2 and M2 Comp worth in that time ? 10-15k i guess ?

With high milage a M2CS will be 30k in 10 years, yeah. M2 will be 15k and M2 Comp will be 20k (sale price, not asking price, and does not take into account future inflation). Look at an average 10 year old M3 with high milage.

To be clear, I'm predicting a good example M2CS to only depreciate a total of around 50% in its lifetime. That's really good, much better than most cars. But it's not going to be an instant classic like some are dreaming.

[Moflow]

Originally Posted by DarkstarZero

Realtalk.

In the US, the M2CS is likely to fall in value nearly instantly to 60k with and without CCBs optioned as those usually don't make a big difference in resale value, though can make a difference in speed of sale.

After the initial big drop it will fall in value slowly to 40-30k over the next 8-10 years, depending on condition. This is where the depreciation stops. It will maintain that value for 3-5 years after that before finally going up in value around the 13 year old mark. At around 18 years old, I expect average condition cars to be worth original asking price and continue upward from there with exceptional condition examples to go even higher.

I think comparing the M2CS to the M3 Evo, or M3 LTW etc. is incorrect. Instead, imagine if there was an ultimate version of the S54 Z3M, an M car that started its production run with the S50 engine but switched mid-way to S54. That should be the comparison.

If you want to buy the M2CS as an investment that you can drive, wait 10 years.
If you want to buy the ultimate updated version of the 1M concept and initial depreciation doesn't matter to you, buy it new.

Will there be discounts? Well this isn't Europe, we don't get taxed extra for sports cars. On average there's a flat 5% sales tax plus 2k gas guzzler tax. Not as much of a sports car discouragement as Europe deals with. Freedom.

I still think BMW is charging $10k too much for the car in general and missed a real opportunity to release a legend. Imagine if the 1M was $75k new, reviews would have been worse, price to performance wouldn't be there and it would have depreciated to 50k immediately. But because it was released at 50k, price to performance was amazing, driving demand and sending values to 75k a year later. Same car, perception is everything.

All that said, I'm still first on my dealer's waiting list.

I'd say I agree with you about 90 percent. I think you're being a little tiny bit too pessimistic with M2 values in general. The Z3M is a really interesting comparison because of the engine change, but I generally think the M2 has been accepted and embraced by mainstream automotive culture more than the Z3 ever was. I also think that BMW's "thing" in the psyche of most automotive enthusiasts is "sport sedans/coupes" rather than full on sports cars.

Then again this is colored by some pretty obvious biases (i own an M2, I hate the way the Z3 looks.) And at the end of the day, i think you're being like 10-15 percent pessimistic, which is basically a rounding error at this point, since its all speculation anyway.

So...uh...great post!

[medphysdave]

My current car has depreciated almost $70k in 2.5yrs.

[///M1]

Originally Posted by DarkstarZero

Realtalk.

In the US, the M2CS is likely to fall in value nearly instantly to 60k with and without CCBs optioned as those usually don't make a big difference in resale value, though can make a difference in speed of sale.

After the initial big drop it will fall in value slowly to 40-30k over the next 8-10 years, depending on condition. This is where the depreciation stops. It will maintain that value for 3-5 years after that before finally going up in value around the 13 year old mark. At around 18 years old, I expect average condition cars to be worth original asking price and continue upward from there with exceptional condition examples to go even higher.

I think comparing the M2CS to the M3 Evo, or M3 LTW etc. is incorrect. Instead, imagine if there was an ultimate version of the S54 Z3M, an M car that started its production run with the S50 engine but switched mid-way to S54. That should be the comparison.

If you want to buy the M2CS as an investment that you can drive, wait 10 years.
If you want to buy the ultimate updated version of the 1M concept and initial depreciation doesn't matter to you, buy it new.

Will there be discounts? Well this isn't Europe, we don't get taxed extra for sports cars. On average there's a flat 5% sales tax plus 2k gas guzzler tax. Not as much of a sports car discouragement as Europe deals with. Freedom.

I still think BMW is charging $10k too much for the car in general and missed a real opportunity to release a legend. Imagine if the 1M was $75k new, reviews would have been worse, price to performance wouldn't be there and it would have depreciated to 50k immediately. But because it was released at 50k, price to performance was amazing, driving demand and sending values to 75k a year later. Same car, perception is everything.

All that said, I'm still first on my dealer's waiting list.

I suggest you change your handle to "Nostradamus". (and start your 'path to early retirement' wealth mgmt business given your uncanny ability to read the tea leaves before anyone else can...)

[Really_fat_ninja]

Sadly I can’t afford the car

[Artemis]

Originally Posted by DarkstarZero

Realtalk.

OK, we can assume abstract tendencies based on past experiences, but do mind that should also be part of the equation for your thought exercise: in the 2020-2030 decade, emission taxes are on the rise, leasing high performance ICE cars gets fiscally discouraged, cities and towns gradually restrict high performance ICE cars, exhaust sounds are further muzzled in Europe and COVID-19 shifts the paradigm of priorities for lots of people.

Even Zara encountered a little hiccup:

[omasou]

I love these predictions. Just like the Apple FUD that I have had to endure since 1986.

Apple will fail. Microsoft will rule. Except today it's ...

Apple will fail. Google will rule. or

Apple will fail. Samsung has ##X greater market share.

[Karmic Man]

Yes, will depreciate once the S58 G87 arrives since the G series M2 can do everything the CS does but better.

Heak even 991.1 GT3 RS depreciates here...used to be around AUD500k on the road here and now can be had for 350k second hand with a few thousand kilometers mileage. With 992 GT3 on the horizon the 991.2 GT3 already took a beating in the 2nd hand market.

Porsche's RS used to be the epitome of 'investment grade' GT cars (an RS is an RS) but since Porsche keeps rolling out generations of generations of GT cars out of the factory, the trend dies.

Many people just look at the production number of one generation and think that number seems low enough to be quite exclusive but one needs to look beyond that.

BMW is in the business of making money, rolling new and 'better' cars out of the factory generations after generations. They are not there to ensure the value of owner's car will beat inflation and is a better asset investment class than gold. Same with any car manufacturer.

[JustChris]

I'm gonna go with a 'no' OP.

I think like the M3/4CS and even GT. there is a little pattern maybe;-

1) Those that but it outright at RRP (or even higher). These guys have watched the car for years and 'just want one'. I'm never going to knock them, huge fans usually and plenty on here. I'm one at times in my mind but the 'tight git' in me cannot usually bring myself to fork out full prices. BMW UK has massive history of big distinction in regular and even special models. Worth pointing out that things like depreciation are irrelevant to these buyers as the car is a keeper. Theoretical values are just that.

2) After thins there's often stock left over from speculators unable to flip them at high prices or people bailing. Then they usual list at something like halfway between full RRP and default series model pricing. This is fair enough.

3) Then after quite some time the used market cars pop up with low low mileage, These do not seem to drop much lower than option 2) above and don't encounter scary depreciation.

Before all the Covid nightmare I felt the really low number of cars coming to U.K. might have kept pricing up at RRP but now I'm not so sure.

In the end though let's be honest. Cars and sporty/sports cars are a really emotional purchase.

Spend what you want and don't fret about depreciation.

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by F87 M2CS

The topic is beaten to death already , even without a review ! So you are telling me that in some time the M2CS will fall to 30k ? What will be the M2 and M2 Comp worth in that time ? 10-15k i guess ?

Originally Posted by Poochie

The M2 CS will do fine, you guys are forgetting that regardless of the strength of the economy, people in its price bracket remain unaffected..

To some people with deep pockets, "recession" is merely just a figure of speech and has no bearing on them..

Originally Posted by Tag

What are the winning lottery numbers for tomorrow?

Ready when you are...

This.
This.
This.

Especially the beaten to death bit. The prolonged release hasn't helped anyone....especially eager fans!

Enjoy it when it's here....all the sweater with the longer wait.

[RPM33]

The M2 CS will probably depreciate similar to the M3 CS. The M2 CS will be a great car, looking forward to driving reviews which will hopefully address if it is worth the premium price.

[cactusjack]

This is why my mind is always boggled by so many people buying new when they usually cant afford it. Depreciation is such a huge thing that is often overlooked, especially with m cars. The M2s have been holding steady but there will be a huge drop within 6 months to a year. We will see m2s for under 30 within 2 years I think

[grl.racr]

Thought I was on Rennlist for a second with all the valuation speculating happening. Buy a car to drive, period. If you are worried about value/depreciation/how much your car is worth in X years please save us all a headache and don't buy it.

[Hangman4358]

Originally Posted by cactusjack

This is why my mind is always boggled by so many people buying new when they usually cant afford it. Depreciation is such a huge thing that is often overlooked, especially with m cars. The M2s have been holding steady but there will be a huge drop within 6 months to a year. We will see m2s for under 30 within 2 years I think

$66k+TTL on a 30 month lease. That was how much the previous owner of our 2017 M2 paid in March 2017. Exec and DCT. The old paperwork was still in the glove box at the dealer! We picked it up in November 2019 for $42k+TTL.

My assumption has always been that in 3 years, at 6 years old and 50k miles, I could get right around 25k for it.

[IB M]

Here's to hoping that enough cars with CCBs are built and become garage queens so I can scoop one up in 3 to 5 years for 50% of MSRP. That said hope isn't a strategy.

[seis-speed]

Manual transmission is the key.

I am not even in the market, I would need to sell two cars, that I love, to get one, but due to the manual transmission, I am on a list and check this forum once a week.....

M2 in general speaks to enthusiasts, the CS with a manual will bring in buyers from other brands, IMO. I think demand on properly speced cars will hold value, but I am curious how the lack of Euro Delivery will impact initial orders.

I think the lack of Euro Delivery will make some go into wait and see mode, not feeling like they missed out on a special experience.

[Pol]

Good news for the US market :https://www.bmwblog.com/2020/05/26/b...an-production/

[CosmosMpower]

Originally Posted by Poochie

The M2 CS will do fine, you guys are forgetting that regardless of the strength of the economy, people in its price bracket remain unaffected..

To some people with deep pockets, "recession" is merely just a figure of speech and has no bearing on them..

People with truly deep pockets that are not affected at all by the recession are likely not buying any BMW's especially 2 series based cars. Most buyers in the income bracket for this car are going to be affected, 100-300K salary type people.