BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BMW M2 Forum > Pricing / Ordering / European Delivery / PCD > Used M2 Pricing Forecast

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      02-27-2019, 12:36 AM   #1
Marcumac
Lieutenant Colonel
Marcumac's Avatar
United_States
60
Rep
1,539
Posts

Drives: M235i
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Cincinnati

iTrader: (6)

Garage List
2014 BMW M235i  [0.00]
Question Used M2 Pricing Forecast

I am entertaining an OG M2 six speed as my next mode of transportation. Am I overly optimistic to expect a few 2016s to dip into the mid-30k range by July/August of this year? If so, what kind of mileage would you expect them to have?

I'm curious to see how M2C popularity and the lease return cycle will affect the used market this summer. I know they didn't lease well and a lot of people are skeptical of how many will return to dealers in 2019, but IIRC something like 60% of new BMWs are leased. While the M2 may fall a bit short of that expectation, I don't imagine it being a total outlier.

I've been cross-shopping the M235i, M240i and M2, but worry I would be disappointed with anything short of an M. I sold my beloved M Roadster about 3 years ago and part of me would rather find my way into an E90 M3 than take a step backwards.
__________________

Estoril | Coral | 6S
Appreciate 0
      02-27-2019, 12:34 PM   #2
CosmosMpower
Brigadier General
CosmosMpower's Avatar
1851
Rep
3,640
Posts

Drives: F80, F87c, GT3, MK7 GTI
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Frisco, TX

iTrader: (1)

I don't see mid 30's by summer, maybe high 30's unless it's a 40-70k mile car or something. Most the 2016's with reasonable miles are around low 40's right now which is about a 15-17k hit and the depreciation rate will slow down a bit from here on out. Low miles 2017's are still mid 40's.

I don't think very many people leased M2's, so there won't be that many on lease turn in's.
Appreciate 0
      02-27-2019, 12:59 PM   #3
afwares
Lieutenant
afwares's Avatar
United_States
1099
Rep
548
Posts

Drives: 2018 M2 LCI 6MT LBB
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Chandler, AZ

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmosMpower View Post
I don't see mid 30's by summer, maybe high 30's unless it's a 40-70k mile car or something. Most the 2016's with reasonable miles are around low 40's right now which is about a 15-17k hit and the depreciation rate will slow down a bit from here on out. Low miles 2017's are still mid 40's.

I don't think very many people leased M2's, so there won't be that many on lease turn in's.
I agree - very few people leased the M2, the terms just weren't advantageous to car flippers, and the M2 may actually be the BMW outlier relative to all their other models. And many of those that did lease were often taking advantage of business deductions and/or planning to purchase at lease end so those won't go back to the dealer anyway. I just don't see a big lease turn-in cycle with this car.

That said, I think the economy and the stock market are very disconnected - you'd think from watching CNBC that everything is great but I don't think that's the case. Too many people are over-leveraged, buried in debt and car payments they wish they could unload. If you're patient and a smart Internet shopper you'll find a good deal. I just see too many people playing "keep up with the Joneses", and anyone with cash in the bank is going to have plenty of good opportunities to take advantage when those people get desperate to sell.

I like your E90 M3 idea...if I weren't mechanically clueless and paranoid about spun bearings, I'd love to spend a year or two with an E93 M3 just to cross it off the bucket list.
Appreciate 1
      02-27-2019, 05:33 PM   #4
TemjinX2
Major
472
Rep
1,377
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW M2
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Las Vegas,NV

iTrader: (0)

i'm waiting as well...the depreciation will be slow until the first big batch of 2016/2017s come off lease. Most people didn't start actually getting the 2016s until april so you probably won't see any big price drops until may/june.

right now there hovering around low 40s due to low supply.

msrp in 2016 i think was around 58k with a residuel of 48% = $27840 with dealer make up and CPO cost added , i can see a $35k CPO price.

You saw something similar to the m4 where they were mostly in the low to mid 50s until the first big batch of lease returns came and they quickly dropped to mid to low 40s, non CPO or high mileage dipping into high 30s.

I would say wait until june/july and see how the market is. The current market is all about SUV/CUVs, so its going to be a buyers market for used 2dr coupes.

Low mileage CPO 718 caymans are finally hitting around the 49-51k, so thats tempting too if the price of the M2 doesnt move much.
Appreciate 1
      02-27-2019, 08:29 PM   #5
nomoracin
Captain
United_States
622
Rep
888
Posts

Drives: M2C
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Virginia

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
I suppose it's possible...

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace...9511639273862/
Appreciate 0
      02-27-2019, 10:08 PM   #6
cpxchewy
Monkey
68
Rep
176
Posts

Drives: 2020 M2C, 2014 320i
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: California

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomoracin View Post
Rebuilt title....
Appreciate 0
      03-25-2019, 05:48 PM   #7
IcyLiquid
New Member
Canada
21
Rep
28
Posts

Drives: 6MT LBB M2C
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Montreal

iTrader: (1)

Garage List
Your comment got me curious so I googled.

I don't know what you're freaking out about, it was just a scratch...

/s
Attached Images
  
Appreciate 1
Kankles635.50

      03-26-2019, 07:52 AM   #8
detroitm2
Major
detroitm2's Avatar
United_States
1313
Rep
1,416
Posts

Drives: 2018 M2
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Michigan

iTrader: (1)

Garage List
2018 BMW M2  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by IcyLiquid View Post
Your comment got me curious so I googled.

I don't know what you're freaking out about, it was just a scratch...

[SIZE="1"]/s[/SIZE]
I'm sure that'll buff right out..
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 11:35 AM   #9
Bimmer Pleaser
Second Lieutenant
112
Rep
244
Posts

Drives: C43
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: -

iTrader: (0)

Man I've seen videos of people "repairing" twisted piles of metal like this... Some old Russian dude in his garage yanking the frame with a chain auctioned by King Kong handlers. After a nice paint job it looks like brand new and not a death trap it actually is.
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 12:03 PM   #10
TemjinX2
Major
472
Rep
1,377
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW M2
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Las Vegas,NV

iTrader: (0)

there's been a few clean title m2's around 41k...usually 36k miles. But they sell fast, carmax had a few and some BMW dealerships in the mid west had a few.
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 04:39 PM   #11
XRAVE
Member
XRAVE's Avatar
429
Rep
1,499
Posts

Drives: 135i
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Miami, Florida

iTrader: (0)

I don't think the M2C had that big of an affect on the used car market, where it hit was the 2018's left on the lot and people getting out of their orders. I would say almost 0 lease returns. For those who did lease, it would make no sense to turn in a car that has a buyout of ~30k when you could turn it into carmax for well above that.

The OG M2 production while not limited, was fairly small. Compared the E9x platform, they produced about 1/3. Comparing directly to the E92, about 1/2. While its easier to find what you want because of only one package, one interior color, and 4 exterior, I don't see the affecting it too much. Sub 30k miles I think will stay in ~40k range for the next couple of years.

I would look at the E9x pricing as a forecast.
__________________
Previous: 2013 135i Space Grey w/Coral Red | 6 Speed MT | M Pkg | JB4 | AA Downpipes | AA Exhaust |
Previous: 2015 M3, BSM[/SO/CF | DCT | Adaptive M | 19" Black | CF Roof |
Current: 2018 M2, AW | DCT | Exec Pkg
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 05:01 PM   #12
Exar Kun
Private First Class
136
Rep
145
Posts

Drives: 2018 M2 LCI
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Earth

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 BMW M2  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by XRAVE View Post
I don't think the M2C had that big of an affect on the used car market, where it hit was the 2018's left on the lot and people getting out of their orders. I would say almost 0 lease returns. For those who did lease, it would make no sense to turn in a car that has a buyout of ~30k when you could turn it into carmax for well above that.

The OG M2 production while not limited, was fairly small. Compared the E9x platform, they produced about 1/3. Comparing directly to the E92, about 1/2. While its easier to find what you want because of only one package, one interior color, and 4 exterior, I don't see the affecting it too much. Sub 30k miles I think will stay in ~40k range for the next couple of years.

I would look at the E9x pricing as a forecast.
Spot on. Lease rates on these things were not great from my research, especially when compared to M3/M4. Factor in that and limited production (in comparison), and overall, I think the OG will hold value decently.
__________________
Current: 2018 AW M2 LCI
Past: 2010 AW E90 M3
M2 LCI European Delivery
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 06:53 PM   #13
detroitm2
Major
detroitm2's Avatar
United_States
1313
Rep
1,416
Posts

Drives: 2018 M2
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Michigan

iTrader: (1)

Garage List
2018 BMW M2  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcumac View Post
, but IIRC something like 60% of new BMWs are leased. While the M2 may fall a bit short of that expectation, I don't imagine it being a total outlier.
I'm pretty sure the lease take on M2s was nowhere near 60%. They just had terrible lease values compared to everything else on the market.
Appreciate 0
      03-26-2019, 09:07 PM   #14
XRAVE
Member
XRAVE's Avatar
429
Rep
1,499
Posts

Drives: 135i
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Miami, Florida

iTrader: (0)

I think another factor in the M2 holding its value is because of the current M3/M4. From what I've seen, people were not as happy with the F8x platform compared to the E9x, myself included. I believe that the M3 outsold the M4 and as a whole produced a lot more than the E9x. Once the next generation M3/M4 is released, the F8x will take a huge hit. Take a look at current M4 prices, 50k miles and there going for mid 35k. An equivalent e92 goes for lowish 30s.

An enthusiast looking for a used coupe, rear wheel drive car will gravitate towards the M2, not the M3/M4. While I love the E92, it's getting a bit old for a daily driver and the reliability is not great.
__________________
Previous: 2013 135i Space Grey w/Coral Red | 6 Speed MT | M Pkg | JB4 | AA Downpipes | AA Exhaust |
Previous: 2015 M3, BSM[/SO/CF | DCT | Adaptive M | 19" Black | CF Roof |
Current: 2018 M2, AW | DCT | Exec Pkg
Appreciate 1
      03-27-2019, 09:08 AM   #15
Bimmer Pleaser
Second Lieutenant
112
Rep
244
Posts

Drives: C43
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: -

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XRAVE View Post
I think another factor in the M2 holding its value is because of the current M3/M4. From what I've seen, people were not as happy with the F8x platform compared to the E9x, myself included. I believe that the M3 outsold the M4 and as a whole produced a lot more than the E9x. Once the next generation M3/M4 is released, the F8x will take a huge hit. Take a look at current M4 prices, 50k miles and there going for mid 35k. An equivalent e92 goes for lowish 30s.

An enthusiast looking for a used coupe, rear wheel drive car will gravitate towards the M2, not the M3/M4. While I love the E92, it's getting a bit old for a daily driver and the reliability is not great.
I wish I could have kept my old E92, it wasn't M but it was a joy to drive. wrestling with that hydraulic steering wheel was a blast. But yeah, I was tired of playing whack a leak with the gaskets.
Appreciate 0
      03-27-2019, 10:59 AM   #16
TemjinX2
Major
472
Rep
1,377
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW M2
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Las Vegas,NV

iTrader: (0)

if you look at some of the car fax histories on the used M2s from the dealerships there have been a few where the 1st owner owned the car for 2yrs 9months, 2yrs 10months makes sense it can be a lease, since BMW will do a pull ahead on your lease within 2-3 months of your lease if you lease another BMW.

But not one knows the M2 lease take rate except BMW.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2019, 11:57 AM   #17
TemjinX2
Major
472
Rep
1,377
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW M2
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Las Vegas,NV

iTrader: (0)

so it looks like there few 2016s sub $40k now. But seems to be around 36-39k miles which isnt a lot considering thats the mileage 3yr old car should be..but after seeing of bunch of 10-15k cars...i got use to that mileage lol.

the dealership was originally selling a 2017 BMW M2 6spd with executive package with 3700 miles on it for $50k. They lower the price to $47k. I was able to negotiate the car down to $43k. I figure i would've negotiated the 2016s down to 36k but given the upgrades on the 2017 and the super low mileage...i opted for the 2017. I plan on keeping the car for a long time..this will probably be BMW last analogish M cars.

I love the 6spd and i'm happy with the price i paid given how low the mileage was. The previous owner already installed ceramic tint and it came with clear bra.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2019, 01:21 PM   #18
MisterGoober
Private First Class
51
Rep
111
Posts

Drives: Searching!
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Texas!

iTrader: (0)

The lease pricing was never favorable on the M2 AFAIK. I shopped both for the original M2 and later the M2C, and lease rates were never attractive.
Appreciate 0
      08-07-2019, 03:27 PM   #19
CosmosMpower
Brigadier General
CosmosMpower's Avatar
1851
Rep
3,640
Posts

Drives: F80, F87c, GT3, MK7 GTI
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Frisco, TX

iTrader: (1)

Well it's summer, any mid 30K reasonable mile 16/17 M2's floating around?
Appreciate 0
      08-07-2019, 10:53 PM   #20
jkoral
Major
United_States
302
Rep
1,308
Posts

Drives: 2017 M2 LBB 6MT
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MA

iTrader: (5)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmosMpower View Post
Well it's summer, any mid 30K reasonable mile 16/17 M2's floating around?
Not that I saw last month, nothing even close to that -- although I was mostly focused on a low mileage 17/18 6MT in the Northeast (limited to 500 mile radius).

Even searching nationwide on autotrader today, I only see four cars under 40 and they are all 39+.
Appreciate 0
      08-08-2019, 04:07 PM   #21
TemjinX2
Major
472
Rep
1,377
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW M2
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Las Vegas,NV

iTrader: (0)

you can probably negotiate the $39k ones down to $35k. i negotiated my 2017 m2 with 3700 miles on 6spd from $47k down to $43k. best value seems to be the 2017s 18k miles for around $43-46k.
Appreciate 0
      08-08-2019, 04:10 PM   #22
CosmosMpower
Brigadier General
CosmosMpower's Avatar
1851
Rep
3,640
Posts

Drives: F80, F87c, GT3, MK7 GTI
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Frisco, TX

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TemjinX2 View Post
you can probably negotiate the $39k ones down to $35k. i negotiated my 2017 m2 with 3700 miles on 6spd from $47k down to $43k. best value seems to be the 2017s 18k miles for around $43-46k.
Doubt it, most dealers don't have 4k margin on a car like a M2.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:10 AM.




m2
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST