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      12-15-2019, 11:18 AM   #8735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by scootr View Post
You are not going to fix this in one year. This is the beginning of a new trade agreement. Of course it will cost us initially. We are attempting to undo 50 years of imbalanced trade.
Even though this has cost me $$$ this year I will say it is a hit with the American people.
Point being it has cost us. It might benefit us in the future.

How that is viewed as a win today makes no sense.


Tell you what, give me $10K today. At some point in the future, I might pay you back $20K. I also might pay you back $0.

Is that a "win" for you?
How is that different than any other investment?
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      12-15-2019, 11:21 AM   #8736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Apparent miss. Still waiting on details and "official" projections, but.....





Now, if this turns out to be a one-step-back to take two-steps-forward scenario regarding our trade with China, I will happily give Trump all the credit in the world. Time will tell.
Come on, this is a horrible way of looking at the deal.

Neither the $11B tarrifs or the $28B bailout will be there next year. So yes we had a net loss of $10B this year during negotiations, but what's the net over the next 10 years? I don't know the answer to that question, but it doesn't seem like Chris Murphy does either. How about he waits until he figures that out before commenting.
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      12-15-2019, 11:24 AM   #8737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Apparent miss. Still waiting on details and "official" projections, but.....





Now, if this turns out to be a one-step-back to take two-steps-forward scenario regarding our trade with China, I will happily give Trump all the credit in the world. Time will tell.
Come on, this is a horrible way of looking at the deal.

Neither the $11B tarrifs or the $28B bailout will be there next year. So yes we had a net loss of $10B this year during negotiations, but what's the net over the next 10 years? I don't know the answer to that question, but it doesn't seem like Chris Murphy does either. How about he waits until he figures that out before commenting.
Mr Murphy does have a rather short sighted view, imo.
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      12-15-2019, 11:48 AM   #8738
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Originally Posted by hubbahubba View Post
How is that different than any other investment?
It's not necessarily. However, just like any other investment, it takes time to see if it's a win or not.

If I buy $25K worth of an IPO or invest it as venture capital, it's not a "win" until I recoup my initial investment plus some reasonable profit.

Right?

If that IPO share price craters, or if that start-up I put venture capital in goes belly-up, it's a loss. Hell, if I only recoup my initial investment, it's a loss.

So, this new "trade deal" with China might be a complete disaster, or it might just be a necessary strategic loss for long-term gain. It might be somewhere in between. We won't know for quite some time. So, people claiming this as a win are completely off base.

Last edited by hooligan_COLD; 12-15-2019 at 11:54 AM..
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      12-15-2019, 11:51 AM   #8739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Come on, this is a horrible way of looking at the deal.

Neither the $11B tarrifs or the $28B bailout will be there next year. So yes we had a net loss of $10B this year during negotiations, but what's the net over the next 10 years? I don't know the answer to that question, but it doesn't seem like Chris Murphy does either. How about he waits until he figures that out before commenting.
The fact is that today, right now, Trump's trade war with China has cost us billions of dollars. Even the PROMISE of future dollars from China (which may or may not ever materialize) isn't enough to offset what we've ALREADY lost/spent.
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      12-15-2019, 12:50 PM   #8740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by hubbahubba View Post
How is that different than any other investment?
It's not necessarily. However, just like any other investment, it takes time to see if it's a win or not.

If I buy $25K worth of an IPO or invest it as venture capital, it's not a "win" until I recoup my initial investment plus some reasonable profit.

Right?

If that IPO share price craters, or if that start-up I put venture capital in goes belly-up, it's a loss. Hell, if I only recoup my initial investment, it's a loss.

So, this new "trade deal" with China might be a complete disaster, or it might just be a necessary strategic loss for long-term gain. It might be somewhere in between. We won't know for quite some time. So, people claiming this as a win are completely off base.
I agree with everything you said there. And by the same token, wouldn't those claiming it as a lose also be jumping the gun?

The 5 minute news cycle strikes again, me thinks.
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      12-15-2019, 06:11 PM   #8741
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hubbahubba View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by hubbahubba View Post
How is that different than any other investment?
It's not necessarily. However, just like any other investment, it takes time to see if it's a win or not.

If I buy $25K worth of an IPO or invest it as venture capital, it's not a "win" until I recoup my initial investment plus some reasonable profit.

Right?

If that IPO share price craters, or if that start-up I put venture capital in goes belly-up, it's a loss. Hell, if I only recoup my initial investment, it's a loss.

So, this new "trade deal" with China might be a complete disaster, or it might just be a necessary strategic loss for long-term gain. It might be somewhere in between. We won't know for quite some time. So, people claiming this as a win are completely off base.
I agree with everything you said there. And by the same token, wouldn't those claiming it as a lose also be jumping the gun?

The 5 minute news cycle strikes again, me thinks.
The difference there is that it *IS* a loss until such time we ever recoup the cost.

Right now it has cost us $39B, compared to the start of this trade war. We *might* recoup $29B of that over the course of next year.

In the meantime, what's the opportunity cost on that $39B?
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      12-15-2019, 07:35 PM   #8742
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
The fact is that today, right now, Trump's trade war with China has cost us billions of dollars. Even the PROMISE of future dollars from China (which may or may not ever materialize) isn't enough to offset what we've ALREADY lost/spent.
I don't think you are understanding the deal. The $50B China is purchasing is an annual amount. That is double the amount they usually purchase on an annual basis. So even though we lost $10B this year, we won't have the tarrifs and the bailout in the coming years. We technically should make the $10B up and more next year.
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      12-15-2019, 08:28 PM   #8743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
The difference there is that it *IS* a loss until such time we ever recoup the cost.

Right now it has cost us $39B, compared to the start of this trade war. We *might* recoup $29B of that over the course of next year.

In the meantime, what's the opportunity cost on that $39B?
Great question. If it pans out to even the field, with the amount of money exchanged between the US and China annually, $39B might be peanuts. If it doesn't pan out that way, it's not like the US goes BK over the $. Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope that it turns out for the best for all sides. Win-win is how every deal should be structured, yes? In any case, and as long as it's not all BS, I'm in to see where it goes from here. (Like I have a choice...)

Edit: Just read dsad1's post. If so, yay!
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      12-16-2019, 06:51 AM   #8744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
I don't think you are understanding the deal. The $50B China is purchasing is an annual amount. That is double the amount they usually purchase on an annual basis. So even though we lost $10B this year, we won't have the tarrifs and the bailout in the coming years. We technically should make the $10B up and more next year.
No, I understand the claimed details of the deal:

...Reuters reported that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that China would buy at least $16 billion more agricultural goods in each of the next two years. The article noted that could bring total purchases to near $50 billion in 2020 and 2021...

It would be two years from now before we "made up the $10B and more", BTW.

The increase next year only accounts for an additional $29B, still leaving us $10B in the hole at the end of next year. It would be the following year that we make it into the black, notionally.

However, in the immortal words of Winston Wolff - "Well, let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet."

...That scale of purchases seems implausible and Chinese officials were reluctant to mention any specific target during their press conference,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, and his team said in a note released Saturday, Beijing time...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/us-a...l-unclear.html

Like I said, we'll see if that purchasing actually materializes.

Last edited by hooligan_COLD; 12-16-2019 at 06:59 AM..
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      12-16-2019, 07:12 AM   #8745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
No, I understand the claimed details of the deal:

...Reuters reported that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that China would buy at least $16 billion more agricultural goods in each of the next two years. The article noted that could bring total purchases to near $50 billion in 2020 and 2021...

It would be two years from now before we "made up the $10B and more", BTW.

The increase next year only accounts for an additional $29B, still leaving us $10B in the hole at the end of next year. It would be the following year that we make it into the black, notionally.

However, in the immortal words of Winston Wolff - "Well, let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet."

...That scale of purchases seems implausible and Chinese officials were reluctant to mention any specific target during their press conference,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, and his team said in a note released Saturday, Beijing time...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/us-a...l-unclear.html

Like I said, we'll see if that purchasing actually materializes.
You are right, I forget that this year is pretty much over, so the first purchase wouldn't be until next year.

I understand your cynical view, but China has been good on the past trade deal. If there is an actual agreement, it seems pretty plausible that they would be good on this one too. China has suffered just as much, if not more, over the past year or two.
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      12-16-2019, 07:26 AM   #8746
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Quote:
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You are right, I forget that this year is pretty much over, so the first purchase wouldn't be until next year.

I understand your cynical view, but China has been good on the past trade deal. If there is an actual agreement, it seems pretty plausible that they would be good on this one too. China has suffered just as much, if not more, over the past year or two.
Let's see what the details are of the agreement that actually gets signed and then we can go from there.

As to me being "cynical" about China and trade:

...China engages in widespread cheating in its trade practices, including not only high tariffs, domestic content requirements, and other traditional forms of protectionism, but also rigged regulations that erect trade barriers by favoring Chinese companies and outright theft of foreign IP...

https://www.cato.org/publications/po...aints-can-help
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      12-16-2019, 09:06 AM   #8747
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Trade imbalance results in real national debt.
You could read this here to learn why that is significant and why combating the imbalance is worthwhile.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-...does-it-matter


I'm not happy about paying more for this anymore than you but I do see the need to do something. I question why the tariff money collected is not allocated into no cost manufacturing loan pools.
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      12-16-2019, 09:30 AM   #8748
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The math doesn't work as described here either. If tax payers shell out $39B to farmers and we take in $50B in sales, how much of that $50B goes back towards that $39B?

It could take ten years to actually recoup that.
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      12-16-2019, 10:01 AM   #8749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
Let's see what the details are of the agreement that actually gets signed and then we can go from there.

As to me being "cynical" about China and trade:

...China engages in widespread cheating in its trade practices, including not only high tariffs, domestic content requirements, and other traditional forms of protectionism, but also rigged regulations that erect trade barriers by favoring Chinese companies and outright theft of foreign IP...

https://www.cato.org/publications/po...aints-can-help
As of last week the phase 1 deal wouldn't be in writing, and there would be no signatures. Seems legit.....
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      12-16-2019, 10:58 AM   #8750
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As of last week the phase 1 deal wouldn't be in writing, and there would be no signatures. Seems legit.....
We've seen it before.......a public "announcement" of something favoring Trump that may or may not happen. He does love public announcements.

He also said over the weekend that Comey might spend some time in jail. Right.....says the guy who plays the victim and complains about due process.

Is "lock her up" still a thing?

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So now Comey’s admitting he was wrong. Wow, but he’s only doing so because he got caught red handed. He was actually caught a long time ago. So what are the consequences for his unlawful conduct. Could it be years in jail? Where are the apologies to me and others, Jim?
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      12-16-2019, 11:08 AM   #8751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooligan_COLD View Post
The difference there is that it *IS* a loss until such time we ever recoup the cost.

Right now it has cost us $39B, compared to the start of this trade war. We *might* recoup $29B of that over the course of next year.

In the meantime, what's the opportunity cost on that $39B?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
I don't think you are understanding the deal. The $50B China is purchasing is an annual amount. That is double the amount they usually purchase on an annual basis. So even though we lost $10B this year, we won't have the tarrifs and the bailout in the coming years. We technically should make the $10B up and more next year.
Even more importantly, you have to view any deal with China as a loss until we have proven empirically that it is a win for us. China has a very long habit of agreeing to concessions and then just flat out not honoring the agreement they signed.

In this case, the recourse we would have would be to re-implement the tariffs, but those are costly to us and there would need to be acknowledgement from the White House that they haven't won months after the photo op deal as been shared.

Dealing with China is a lot like suing a deadbeat. Just because you have a court ordered judgement doesn't mean you've won yet. You still have to make sure the check clears!
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      12-16-2019, 12:36 PM   #8752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scootr View Post
Trade imbalance results in real national debt.
You could read this here to learn why that is significant and why combating the imbalance is worthwhile.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-...does-it-matter


I'm not happy about paying more for this anymore than you but I do see the need to do something. I question why the tariff money collected is not allocated into no cost manufacturing loan pools.
I don't think anyone here is arguing that trade imbalance isn't bad or that combating it isn't worthwhile.

We're simply discussing the effectiveness and impacts of the current combat.
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      12-16-2019, 03:40 PM   #8753
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Judge rejects claims by Trump ex-adviser Flynn of FBI misconduct https://reut.rs/34vkG89
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      12-16-2019, 03:42 PM   #8754
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Always playing the victim, but actually never the victim:

https://apnews.com/c4e1bbc13ccdec5953a66f3002974899

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump made clear Monday that he intends to participate in at least three general election debates, but he is threatening to sidestep the nonprofit group charged with running them.

"I look very much forward to debating whoever the lucky person is who stumbles across the finish line in the little watched Do Nothing Democrat Debates," Trump tweeted Monday morning after The New York Times reported that he was considering skipping them entirely.

Trump said his record "is so good" that "perhaps I would consider more than 3 debates." But he also complained, without evidence, that the Commission on Presidential Debates is "stacked with Trump Haters & Never Trumpers" and threatened to bypass them.
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      12-16-2019, 03:54 PM   #8755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
Always playing the victim, but actually never the victim:

https://apnews.com/c4e1bbc13ccdec5953a66f3002974899

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump made clear Monday that he intends to participate in at least three general election debates, but he is threatening to sidestep the nonprofit group charged with running them.

"I look very much forward to debating whoever the lucky person is who stumbles across the finish line in the little watched Do Nothing Democrat Debates," Trump tweeted Monday morning after The New York Times reported that he was considering skipping them entirely.

Trump said his record "is so good" that "perhaps I would consider more than 3 debates." But he also complained, without evidence, that the Commission on Presidential Debates is "stacked with Trump Haters & Never Trumpers" and threatened to bypass them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
Always playing the victim, but actually never the victim:

https://apnews.com/c4e1bbc13ccdec5953a66f3002974899

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump made clear Monday that he intends to participate in at least three general election debates, but he is threatening to sidestep the nonprofit group charged with running them.

"I look very much forward to debating whoever the lucky person is who stumbles across the finish line in the little watched Do Nothing Democrat Debates," Trump tweeted Monday morning after The New York Times reported that he was considering skipping them entirely.

Trump said his record "is so good" that "perhaps I would consider more than 3 debates." But he also complained, without evidence, that the Commission on Presidential Debates is "stacked with Trump Haters & Never Trumpers" and threatened to bypass them.
I can't wait for the debates. Creepy Joe would be good - going around sniffing kids in the audience, talking about his leg hair, biting his wife's finger and forgetting which state he's in. Get the popcorn, I'm in!!!
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      12-16-2019, 03:59 PM   #8756
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I can't wait for the debates. Creepy Joe would be good - going around sniffing kids in the audience, talking about his leg hair, biting his wife's finger and forgetting which state he's in. Get the popcorn, I'm in!!!
Considering Trump lost every......every debate in 2016, including the GOP debates. Do you think he has figured out the nuclear triad yet? Rubio won't be there next time to help him.
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