[Karmic Man]

Originally Posted by Artemis

Beware of being overly optimistic about ICE (internal combustion engine) cars: the list of countries and towns planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles (road driving or even sale) is growing: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phas..._fuel_vehicles

The car industry wants you to still buy today their ICE cars. Hence, unsurprisingly they got a commercial interest in pretending that ICE cars still got a future of decades ahead. All it takes is some legislation changes. Look at tightened EU emissions regulations that forced BMW in unexpectedly abandoning the N55 and offering the S55 version (which was initally scheduled to be called "M2 CS") as "M2 Competition" back in 2018.

For example in my country the government of the Brussels region announced yesterday the ambition to ban all diesel cars by 2030 and all gasoline cars by 2035. So whether still on sale or not: you can no longer access public roads anymore (or at least not without paying some deterring toll - new source of income for towns, alike in the Middle Ages). In my country, the majority of sold cars are no longer diesel cars. Resale value of diesel cars is decreasing.

Hopefully legislators will implement so-called 'grandfather clauses': exempting certain pre-existing classes of cars from the new legislative requirements. But don't take that for granted. Worldwide there could also be financial incentives: taxing the (already high) fuel prices prohibitively high, 'encouraging' most people to abandon buying/using ICE cars.

Things can change quickly: check how much paper post you received a decade ago at your office or at home and compare with today. Or how the telephone market changed in the last decade because of evolving smartphones with touch screens gaining popularity.

So, though plans could remain plans or be delayed, I think that we all got to realize that ICE cars are on their way out, or will at least not be easy to hold on to. Car manufacturers gotta adapt or go extinct. Sales figures will show them the way.

Valid but I disagree with your view because I see that the EU think they represent the whole world and came up with all these 'green' legislations with no consideration of practicality in each individual country.

As such the rest of the world are not exactly fully in step with the EU on this. One main reason is to get a wide implementation of EV there has to be a lot of infrastructure upgrades in each country to support that 'full electric' initiative. For one all the substations have to be upgraded or completely rebuild to handle more power load and provide adequate heat dissipation...etc For a country as big as the US or Australia, the cost is astronomical.

I see that going forward the all EV implementation can be relatively easy and speedy for small countries. After that it will take a long time before a country like the US or Australia goes full electric. The fossil fuel dinosaur will be with us for a long time.

I haven't even started on issues seen from the customer's point of view. Few hours of charging time required is not acceptable to many people. Especially to those who live in a high density complex where they have to share a charger with the rest of their community. The cost of the vehicle is not exactly cheap as well. If customers are not buying EV and choose ICE then manufacturers will keep on making them.

If EV really is the 'all that there will be' future then Tesla should be making a profit by now but they are still losing money. Their debt is just getting bigger and bigger. I therefore don't see a simple evolution path of EV completely replaces ICE in 20 years time. Rather EV is one solution to the green initiative and other solutions will unfold in the near future. Together they will help to keep a greener environment (than now) while fulfilling their purpose within their domain.

[Artemis]

Originally Posted by Karmic Man

If EV really is the 'all that there will be' future then Tesla should be making a profit by now but they are still losing money. Their debt is just getting bigger and bigger. I therefore don't see a simple evolution path of EV completely replaces ICE in 20 years time. Rather EV is one solution to the green initiative and other solutions will unfold in the near future. Together they will help to keep a greener environment (than now) while fulfilling their purpose within their domain.

What's generally being told: the current basic assumption of one or several ICE cars per household will be replaced in the future by electric vehicles, public car sharing and use of means of public transport.

Tax policies influence consumer decision-making: see for example Norway here.

But when tax incentives are removed or limited, sales drop: see here (WSJ) or here (FT) what happened to Tesla sales in Hong Kong (2017-2018) when authorities removed generous tax breaks.

"low tax incentives = low purchase interest". 2017: steep rise in Tesla sales in the final days of the HK tax incentives followed by a dramatic collapse of Tesla sales:

[Karmic Man]

Originally Posted by Artemis

What's generally being told: the current basic assumption of one or several ICE cars per household will be replaced in the future by electric vehicles, public car sharing and use of means of public transport.

Tax policies influence consumer decision-making: see for example Norway here.

But when tax incentives are removed or limited, sales drop: see here (WSJ) or here (FT) what happened to Tesla sales in Hong Kong (2017-2018) when authorities removed generous tax breaks.

Attachment 2101619

Trust me, I get what you are trying to say

Though from real world observations what the EU authorities are thinking is really far fetched far from what the average household can do or would be willing to do in another continent.

For one, no one (local council or property owners) would be willing to pay for the installation of all those EV chargers in an existing apartment or unit. Only newly developed suburbs and newly developed apartments might have the infrastructure to support a mass EV rollout. For an owner without access to chargers in their premises, you expect they are going to drive to a local charge station and wait around for a few hours and then drive back? That is assuming that a charger would be available as soon as the owner turns up and not have to wait. Worse case is the wait might be for a few hours if everyone turned up just before the owner arrives. No one would want to be in that position.

This kind of practicality nonsense is one main reason why the adaptation of EV is slow for potential customers. It's not just about the cost of the vehicle itself.

[Robin_NL]

In short :We are just being forced into EVs by lying leftist politicians/governments overhere.

New Merc C220d is just as clean as an EV. And we're not talking about EV production which is environmentally way worse than ICE cars production...

Cheers
Robin

[akkando]

Originally Posted by Karmic Man

Valid but I disagree with your view because I see that the EU think they represent the whole world and came up with all these 'green' legislations with no consideration of practicality in each individual country.

As such the rest of the world are not exactly fully in step with the EU on this. One main reason is to get a wide implementation of EV there has to be a lot of infrastructure upgrades in each country to support that 'full electric' initiative. For one all the substations have to be upgraded or completely rebuild to handle more power load and provide adequate heat dissipation...etc For a country as big as the US or Australia, the cost is astronomical.

I see that going forward the all EV implementation can be relatively easy and speedy for small countries. After that it will take a long time before a country like the US or Australia goes full electric. The fossil fuel dinosaur will be with us for a long time.

I haven't even started on issues seen from the customer's point of view. Few hours of charging time required is not acceptable to many people. Especially to those who live in a high density complex where they have to share a charger with the rest of their community. The cost of the vehicle is not exactly cheap as well. If customers are not buying EV and choose ICE then manufacturers will keep on making them.

If EV really is the 'all that there will be' future then Tesla should be making a profit by now but they are still losing money. Their debt is just getting bigger and bigger. I therefore don't see a simple evolution path of EV completely replaces ICE in 20 years time. Rather EV is one solution to the green initiative and other solutions will unfold in the near future. Together they will help to keep a greener environment (than now) while fulfilling their purpose within their domain.

The reason Tesla isn't making money isn't because they are not selling cars. They sell them as fast as they can make them. It's the making them part they are having trouble with.

[RocketTR]

Originally Posted by Karmic Man

Valid but I disagree with your view because I see that the EU think they represent the whole world and came up with all these 'green' legislations with no consideration of practicality in each individual country.

As such the rest of the world are not exactly fully in step with the EU on this. One main reason is to get a wide implementation of EV there has to be a lot of infrastructure upgrades in each country to support that 'full electric' initiative. For one all the substations have to be upgraded or completely rebuild to handle more power load and provide adequate heat dissipation...etc For a country as big as the US or Australia, the cost is astronomical.

I see that going forward the all EV implementation can be relatively easy and speedy for small countries. After that it will take a long time before a country like the US or Australia goes full electric. The fossil fuel dinosaur will be with us for a long time.

I haven't even started on issues seen from the customer's point of view. Few hours of charging time required is not acceptable to many people. Especially to those who live in a high density complex where they have to share a charger with the rest of their community. The cost of the vehicle is not exactly cheap as well. If customers are not buying EV and choose ICE then manufacturers will keep on making them.

If EV really is the 'all that there will be' future then Tesla should be making a profit by now but they are still losing money. Their debt is just getting bigger and bigger. I therefore don't see a simple evolution path of EV completely replaces ICE in 20 years time. Rather EV is one solution to the green initiative and other solutions will unfold in the near future. Together they will help to keep a greener environment (than now) while fulfilling their purpose within their domain.

Tesla is just one company intending to pave the way for EV into the future. Every other existing mainstream manufacturer is already jumping on the bandwagon. I don't see this changing. Even Ford is rumored to be working on an electric version of the Mustang. Imagine in the future when people have a choice between a 480 HP V8 Mustang and an electric version of the same car that will run circles around it. As much as I love the sound of shifting through the gears in a performance V8 engine car, it will kind of suck when a battery powered version of the same car will leave me in the dust effortlessly. I mean, that's what we're already seeing with Tesla today.

Anyway, the point is that this EV future is already rolling and it's gaining momentum. Tesla only just recently started offering a car that the "average" consumer can afford in the Model 3. I don't think it will be long before there are more of the Model 3 on the roads than all other Tesla vehicles combined.

And honestly, all of this somewhat saddens me. Not because I'm anti-EV or anything, but because it will eventually lead to the death of the cars I love to drive most. We should all be happy that we can still purchase these types of cars (and with manual transmissions!) because it's not going to be long before they're gone. You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict that....it's fairly obvious if you start looking at what's already happening in the automotive scene.

I'm not saying that ICE vehicles are suddenly going to disappear....I'm simply saying that the available offerings will start to decline more and more until there aren't any left. They'll be replaced by electric cars. Nobody is shoving this down our throats...it will be apparent that this is where the demand will shift. I bet if Tesla (or any other manufacturer) came out with a $30K electric car that looked and performed like a Model 3, they'd never be able to manufacture enough to keep up with demand. But that's okay because I'm planning to buy a few different sporty ICE cars with manual transmissions to build my own "fleet" for the future when EVs are the more common form of transportation.

[TemjinX2]

People dont understand the real reason governments are pushing for EVs is health care costs. Countries with universal health care such as EU and China understand air pollution from ICEs are causing respiratory diseases and other diseases they have to pay for. Those diseases do not kill people quickly and often require expensive treatments over a long period of time.

This will balloon their healthcare costs as baby boomers are becoming older and retiring, while millienials do not make as much money as baby boomers to make up the difference.

These costs will force goverments to spend money on people that a dying versus spending it on defense, infrastructure, education and scientific research.

Countries like the US without universal health care...the ICE will be around for a long time. Places like San Fransisco and New York City with similar situations as EU and Chinese cities will probably ban ICEs within their city limits.

States like Texas, with less social welfare and huge distances between cities, you'll see the ICE continue on without any restrictions.

The environmental thing is a concern but i think is a smoke screen for the government saying, i dont want to pay for your increased health care costs..lol. Mainly because health care costs are more immediate versus global climate change which happens gradually.

So EV's will continue to be pushed by governments and large densely populated cities, even if the market forces say that EV's are not ready yet to replace ICEs.

[TemjinX2]

As Jay Leno stated...the ICE will become something similar to a horse. People will keep there ICE lambos, ferraris and M cars and junk the civics and corollas for evs.

Your ev will be your daily and your ICE sports car will be your weekend car you take out occasionally.

Thats pretty much my plan as well. Once i pay off my M2, i'm going to get a tesla as a daily and drive my M2 on the weekends. Its also one of the reasons i got a 6spd Manual for my M2 which is going to feel like a well crafted mechanical rolex versus the DCT thats going to seem like a 1st gen iphone in 10yrs compared to ev's.

[RocketTR]

Originally Posted by TemjinX2

....Its also one of the reasons i got a 6spd Manual for my M2 which is going to feel like a well crafted mechanical rolex versus the DCT thats going to seem like a 1st gen iphone in 10yrs compared to ev's.

Best thing I've read all week. That's funny, but probably very true.

[TemjinX2]

Originally Posted by RocketTR

Best thing I've read all week. That's funny, but probably very true.

It's basically similar to what happened to vinyl records. Most people dumped their vinyl records for cds and later mp3s and streaming services.

The audio purists kept their vinyl records and now pay big money to collect certain kinds of vinyl records. No one is searching through looking for old cds or mp3 players.

The 6spd manual sports cars will probably become the car version of vinyl records. All the car enthusiasts in the future will probably seek out the old 6spd porsche 911, m3, ferrari because of the driving experience and feel.

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by TemjinX2

its basically similar to what happened to vinyl records. Most people dumped there vinyl records for cds and later mp3s and streaming services.

The audio purists kepted their vinyl records and now pay big money to collect certain kinds of vinyl records. No one is searching through looking for old cds or mp3 players.

The 6spd manual sports cars will probably become the car version of vinyl records. All the car enthusists in the future will probably seek out the old 6spd porsche 911, m3, ferrari because of the driving experience and feel.

Agreed. Those that want their ICE cars to remain valuable should really become EV fanboys. The easier the world transitions to EV, then the more likely your car becomes valuable. I really want the CS and a model3p.

[TemjinX2]

Originally Posted by medphysdave

Agreed. Those that want their ICE cars to remain valuable should really become EV fanboys. The easier the world transitions to EV, then the more likely your car becomes valuable. I really want the CS and a model3p.

i'm in the same boat as you. I want to keep my M2 but then get a Model S with the auto pilot that can be added tesla uber fleet as a daily and make me money while i'm at work lol. Not fan of the egg shape of the model 3 though.

[Artemis]

As the train of thought keeps meandering and venturing into interesting curves, I modified the thread title to "M2 CS closest to 1M in value hold + long term perspective in electric vehicles future".

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by Artemis

As the train of thought keeps meandering and venturing into interesting curves, I modified the thread title to "M2 CS closest to 1M in value hold + long term perspective in electric vehicles future".

I like it

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by TemjinX2

i'm in the same boat as you. I want to keep my M2 but then get a Model S with the auto pilot that can be added tesla uber fleet as a daily and make me money while i'm at work lol. Not fan of the egg shape of the model 3 though.

The question is whether the current hardware will be enough to support the autopilot necessary for the car service. The best part of Tesla is that we are in the pioneer phase before regulations.

Tesla is like Napster

[TemjinX2]

Originally Posted by medphysdave

The question is whether the current hardware will be enough to support the autopilot necessary for the car service. The best part of Tesla is that we are in the pioneer phase before regulations.

Tesla is like Napster

i'm sure they'll figure out a way. Elon musk is similar to steve jobs in a sense that he has a vision and he's excellent at spotting the right talent and hiring them like steve jobs was.

i'll probably get the tesla after i pay off the m2..so hopefully by then they'll have it figured out and fixed those panel gaps as well lol.

[RPM33]

Speaking of value with the M2 CS, do people that have a M2 Competition see the value over their current car? As an OG M2 owner, the CS has 80 more horsepower, so I can see the value. I would think the experience will be new and exciting. Just wondering what the M2 Competition owners feel.

[mr_lab_rat]

I don't really care about car values but I don't think the M2 CS will be seen as something really special. As someone else said the one that will become a legend will be the last RWD 2 series M car with manual transmission and that will likely be the next gen 2 series.

[GimmeanM]

Originally Posted by mr_lab_rat

I don't really care about car values but I don't think the M2 CS will be seen as something really special. As someone else said the one that will become a legend will be the last RWD 2 series M car with manual transmission and that will likely be the next gen 2 series.

Unless it's spoiled be weight gain, Mexican production or any other host of spoiling regulations...

[particulardude]

who


cares


buy the car and have fun driving it - do not attempt to preserve it for the next person - you will fail unless it's shrink-wrapped

you will drive yourself nuts

you are welcome

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by RPM33

Speaking of value with the M2 CS, do people that have a M2 Competition see the value over their current car? As an OG M2 owner, the CS has 80 more horsepower, so I can see the value. I would think the experience will be new and exciting. Just wondering what the M2 Competition owners feel.

I believe the main benefit will be for the folks that want a little more exclusivity and don't want to mod. I don't think it's going to impact the C very much. Values typically decrease for a while, level off, then start to increase many years later. You likely won't know you have a winner for another 10yrs. Probably longer before it reached original value.

[10"]

Originally Posted by Dav3

1M, M3 CSL and Z8 quite instantly

Z4 M with time became a collectible because it ended up being the only Z car with a real M engine and a good one too

Collectors market is a niche thing though. You really need a pristine condition, low mileage and very special car to actually turn a big profit.

But even then, as per my experience with a used low mileage z4m, an old car is an old car and you will have to deal with a lot of annoying small and big things unrelated to how the car was taken care of.

Z8s were selling for $50k off sticker back in the day since they were sitting at dealerships for over a year. Their value only took off a few later.

The 1M, on the other hand, instantly sold out.

Very different stories altogether.

The 1M was an odd story and will never happen again. A car that was developed initially after hours. Not approved by executives. Eventually, reluctantly produced. Low production. Crazy fun to drive. 3 colours and manual only. Not many options. There's still nothing else like it and don't think there ever will be...

I hope the CS is a good car because enthusiasts deserve more 'pure' and fun cars but I always worry when too many options are given and these turn into marketing exercises rather than stick to the original goal. We will see