[robopp]

Curious to see what happens. The M3CS took an absolute beating on depreciation. New they were going for 25K off. Might have been different if they had a manual, but who knows... Seems like there are a lot of allocations available, which is the path the M3CS took and the initial buyers took an absolute bath on the car.

[sdhotwn]

Look at general M3/M4 depreciation compared to M2 depreciation in the states. The M2 has generally fared much better percentage wise regardless.

[Acetech]

I'll kind of agree with ya on the Getrag 420G 6 speed installed in the e39 540-M5 and E46 M3, the 1-2 is queer, often doesn't feel right, and the E9x M also had a heavy second. But the current GS6 in the 1M M2 F8xM3-4 is the best manual BMW has ever made

[chris719]

Originally Posted by Acetech

I'll kind of agree with ya on the Getrag 420G 6 speed installed in the e39 540-M5 and E46 M3, the 1-2 is queer, often doesn't feel right, and the E9x M also had a heavy second. But the current GS6 in the 1M M2 F8xM3-4 is the best manual BMW has ever made

Yeah, I won't dispute that they finally decided to improve the shift into 2nd. The ZF gearbox in the Z4M also has a 1-2 denial / grind issue - it's actually really good other than that compared to most BMW MTs.

[DarkstarZero]

Originally Posted by deceptiv.M3

I know these are hard to predict, but I'm in a situation where I have an M3 competition model with super low miles with a lease expiration of early next year. I had full plans to buyout the car for around 45k (payoff + discount) for a mint m3 zcp w/ 7000 miles. I have an opportunity to grab an allocation for the m2 cs, unfortunately I missed the M3 CS boat.. but the question I'm struggling with is it worth starting over on debt (90k+ vs 45k) for the cs badge, smaller/better track car... I think the possibility of this car becoming the next 1M makes it a gamble worth taking, but what if it turns out like the M3/M4 CS that don't really net any significant difference than the regular competition models?

What do you mean you missed the boat on the M3/M4 CS? You can get them slightly used for half off right now!

The M2 CS will never be a 1M. IMO it will depreciate down to high 30s, low 40s over the next 5-10 years. I know that sounds bad, but that's exceptional in comparison to a 5 series costing just as much. It'll hold around there and then eventually shoot up in value somewhere around the 15-25 year mark. The M2 CS is an easy future classic but you'll have to wait over 20 years for that.

If you want your cars to be fun investments, don't buy new.

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by DarkstarZero

What do you mean you missed the boat on the M3/M4 CS? You can get them slightly used for half off right now!

The M2 CS will never be a 1M. IMO it will depreciate down to high 30s, low 40s over the next 5-10 years. I know that sounds bad, but that's exceptional in comparison to a 5 series costing just as much. It'll hold around there and then eventually shoot up in value somewhere around the 15-25 year mark. The M2 CS is an easy future classic but you'll have to wait over 20 years for that.

If you want your cars to be fun investments, don't buy new.

I tend to agree with this. Most don't become collectors until the price becomes attainable for the masses. Then the masses create the desire, then the price goes up. Hot buys now for collectibility are the z4M and can be had for under $20k. Do these ever truly become collectible, or is it vintage novelty combined with being unique (not many examples around)? Supply and demand.

Edit: I do think that the M2CS has potential to travel a different path due to buyers perception that they will be collectible. Buyers buying them to be collectible, and thus holding onto them with a more firm grip. This could result in very low supply at any one time on the used market, which could bolster prices. It will be the dealership discounts that hurt the consumers if too many sit on the lots for too long and sell below MSRP. Selling very quickly, even if below msrp, won't have the negative impact.

[Bimmed Out]

Originally Posted by Mr Pete

If you can get a Cayman GTS 4.0, that would be the car to get. As long as you don't need a back seat. Nothing like a modern day Porsche manual.

If you can get a GTS 4.0? My dealer offered me an allocation at 7% off. I passed. Silly long gearing and disappointing sound considering it's NA.

[jhall1957]

This is all such nonsense. This is a pro BMW forum. Let's keep our focus. Coming in and saying "brand X" is better does no one any good.

As to values and depreciation, buying a car is NEVER a good investment. At our level of discussion it's a emotional move.

I bought a 1M new for $46k and maybe now it's worth $60k to someone. 9 years with that money invested anywhere would have been better!

And look at most all Porsche's. They drop in value just like most all other cars before maybe rebounding. Some faster, some slower(nice 944's are still cheap).

I bought my Z4M Coupes at maybe the right time but who cares? I drive them and enjoy them and in the meantime my stocks portfolio goes up.
Buy the car you want and never take a piss on another mans dream car(unless it's a Prius or Miata, they are not "mans" cars).
You guys who buy M2CS's remember what Tiff said, you'll be very happy with it.

[sdhotwn]

Originally Posted by jhall1957

Buy the car you want and never take a piss on another mans dream car(unless it's a Prius or Miata, they are not "mans" cars).
You guys who buy M2CS's remember what Tiff said, you'll be very happy with it.

Hey now! I still love miatas!

But I still laugh my butt off every time I see this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3MhS_TzPbA

[Mr Pete]

Originally Posted by kepler

If you can get a GTS 4.0? My dealer offered me an allocation at 7% off. I passed. Silly long gearing and disappointing sound considering it's NA.

Great!

[robopp]

Originally Posted by kepler

If you can get a GTS 4.0? My dealer offered me an allocation at 7% off. I passed. Silly long gearing and disappointing sound considering it's NA.

I hope you're not buying a M2CS if you're worried about sound...

[mprezme]

Doesn't the history of the m3/4 CS provide what the car will be then?

In 3 years how many of 466 will still be on the road? It seems a longer wait is needed, to see real value.

[gemini.m3]

Originally Posted by mprezme

Doesn't the history of the m3/4 CS provide what the car will be then?

In 3 years how many of 466 will still be on the road? It seems a longer wait is needed, to see real value.

true, i think of the things that made me reconsider is that the "CS" model is basically like the "Competition" - in terms of trade in, it doesn't have its own individual SKU which I think is going to hurt it long term, at least for the M3/M4

The M2 CS has substantial differentiation from the M2 Comp, but I reckon people will just buy a hood, paint it and call it a day, so who knows how its going to shake out.

[mprezme]

Looking at used M3 CS, MSRP was over 100k. One can be had for 60k ish. There are 7 on swapalease.com. The m3 CS depreciated like a "normal" car would when bought new.

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by mprezme

Looking at used M3 CS, MSRP was over 100k. One can be had for 60k ish. There are 7 on swapalease.com. The m3 CS depreciated like a "normal" car would when bought new.

I'd wait for the new M3 before making a decision.

[sdhotwn]

Originally Posted by mprezme

Looking at used M3 CS, MSRP was over 100k. One can be had for 60k ish. There are 7 on swapalease.com. The m3 CS depreciated like a "normal" car would when bought new.

How are you getting 60K from the cars on there?

[mprezme]

Originally Posted by sdhotwn

How are you getting 60K from the cars on there?

Two separate sources. The buy market has them for 60k ish. Then in swap a lease has 7 available. 15,18 months left on those leases.

[sdhotwn]

Originally Posted by mprezme

Two separate sources. The buy market has them for 60k ish. Then in swap a lease has 7 available. 15,18 months left on those leases.

The ones on autotrader are ~80k plus (not the ones listed as CS's that aren't actually CS's)... and the swapaleases are 1100-1300, which is more than 80k financed - residual wasn't declared on them that I could see... so I'm not sure still where you get 60k.

EDIT: Found that RV was .67 for 24 months and .61 for 36 months for the leases versus 62/56 for standard M3/M4 from what I could find online through various sources. Lease residual does not make for sell price in market.

[robopp]

Originally Posted by sdhotwn

The ones on autotrader are ~80k plus (not the ones listed as CS's that aren't actually CS's)... and the swapaleases are 1100-1300, which is more than 80k financed - residual wasn't declared on them that I could see... so I'm not sure still where you get 60k.

EDIT: Found that RV was .67 for 24 months and .61 for 36 months for the leases versus 62/56 for standard M3/M4 from what I could find online through various sources. Lease residual does not make for sell price in market.

Those are some horrible lease numbers. Negotiating $850/month zero drive off with MA state taxes was not very hard on a $105k car. BMW was dumping money into those cars to move them

[sdhotwn]

Originally Posted by robopp

Those are some horrible lease numbers. Negotiating $850/month zero drive off with MA state taxes was not very hard on a $105k car. BMW was dumping money into those cars to move them

I saw that referenced when I was checking the residuals. Even the 850/month ones still held the same residuals from what I could find, not sure if that really varied or not - not lease savvy enough to know how much residuals move, if ever during negotiation or promotions etc. I believe they don't change, but I'm unsure. So it was hard to calculate more out of those numbers. mprezme was claiming 60k for the price and I can't find anything in market that shows that. Anything online is 75k+ plus with most in the 80's, and the swapalease items were all in the 1100 type range with at least a year to go. So you are looking at 10,000+ plus residual to grab those cars, and if residual is 60K+ you are in the 70-80K range on those too.

Cheapest one on swapalease for what's left is 1090 for 16 months - 17,440, and then still has residual which comes off MSRP so that means the car is at least ~81K.

[robopp]

Originally Posted by sdhotwn

I saw that referenced when I was checking the residuals. Even the 850/month ones still held the same residuals from what I could find (I'm not lease savvy enough to know if the residual comes off the MSRP or final negotiated price though). So it was hard to calculate more out of those numbers. mprezme was claiming 60k for the price and I can't find anything in market that shows that. Anything online is 75k+ plus with most in the 80's, and the swapalease items were all in the 1100 type range with at least a year to go. So you are looking at 10,000+ plus residual to grab those cars, and if residual is 60K+ you are in the 70-80K range on those too.

Cheapest one on swapalease for what's left is 1090 for 16 months - 17,440, and then still has residual which high side is probably 62,000 low side is maybe ~51,850, so that one costs 69,220 if they somehow did residual against an 85k purchase price in theory, which based on their lease payment - no, or ~80K if it was off MSRP.

Residual is calculated using MSRP

[sdhotwn]

Originally Posted by robopp

Residual is calculated using MSRP

Figured that out as I was editing and checking my facts. Thanks for verifying!