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      04-25-2016, 12:37 AM   #1
Emm_Too
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Resale value next spring?

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Hey guys, I wanted to get your thoughts. I will be getting my M2 end of June this summer. This will be babied to say the least, I will have an SUV for some driving during the summer, it will be garaged during the winter here in Canada.

Out the door I will be paying 69k CDN. If I put on say 10,000 KM- what do you think I could sell it for next spring?

Wanted to get an idea if I would be loosing money in this purchase after 1 year?

Thanks
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      04-25-2016, 12:56 AM   #2
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It's a car. It's pretty much guaranteed you are going to lose money, probably within the first 5 seconds of driving it off the lot.

Of course, you could find someone who is willing to pay a premium because they just can't wait the 12 months to get one. But, who knows what the supply will be by then. The exact same thing happened with both the A45, and the RS3. Supply was initially short, and within the first 6 months, they ramped up...and look at them now. They're all over the place on used car websites. At least they are here in Oz. All well below RRP.

My gut feeling? Yes, you will lose money. It's an M2....not a '69 Stingray or a Ferrari Dino!
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      04-25-2016, 03:15 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emm_Too
Hey guys, I wanted to get your thoughts. I will be getting my M2 end of June this summer. This will be babied to say the least, I will have an SUV for some driving during the summer, it will be garaged during the winter here in Canada.

Out the door I will be paying 69k CDN. If I put on say 10,000 KM- what do you think I could sell it for next spring?

Wanted to get an idea if I would be loosing money in this purchase after 1 year?

Thanks
You will lose, but not like a regular car or any other common sportscar like the M4 and AMG 45. It will hold value better than the two mentioned.

I think once its out of production it will start holdin value much better, but thats not soon
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      04-25-2016, 06:51 AM   #4
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To be honest it depends. IMHO you can probably still get MSRP back selling next spring, due to the extremely low number of cars coming to Canada this year.
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      04-25-2016, 09:07 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
To be honest it depends. IMHO you can probably still get MSRP back selling next spring, due to the extremely low number of cars coming to Canada this year.
Yep, it depends on whether production has caught up with the high initial demand by then.
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      04-25-2016, 09:45 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by oldmanstyle View Post
Yep, it depends on whether production has caught up with the high initial demand by then.
It won't have. CDN dealers are selling into late-2017, early-2018 now.
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      04-25-2016, 11:07 AM   #7
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you just cant predict this sort of thing....like others have said, it will all depend on the supply/demand situation at the time you decide to sell. Best bet is count on losing money and if not...bonus!
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      04-25-2016, 11:17 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Dabozo View Post
you just cant predict this sort of thing....like others have said, it will all depend on the supply/demand situation at the time you decide to sell. Best bet is count on losing money and if not...bonus!
At this point, at least for Canada, it is pretty much the same situation as the 1M and that is why I'm predicting it'll stick around MSRP for a while.

Have to remember that we are a weird little market for cars...
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      04-25-2016, 11:19 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
It won't have. CDN dealers are selling into late-2017, early-2018 now.
I wonder if that type of demand will actually cause BMW to increase allocations and production of the M2. If people really have to wait a couple of years for a car, they might get impatient and go elsewhere.

That's what I did...
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      04-25-2016, 11:23 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dabozo View Post
you just cant predict this sort of thing....like others have said, it will all depend on the supply/demand situation at the time you decide to sell. Best bet is count on losing money and if not...bonus!
+1

And drive the hell out of the car and enjoy it, don't worry about resale value now. And remember you're getting a car, not a piece of real estate
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      04-25-2016, 11:26 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmboone25 View Post
I wonder if that type of demand will actually cause BMW to increase allocations and production of the M2. If people really have to wait a couple of years for a car, they might get impatient and go elsewhere.

That's what I did...
Hard to say at this point. My personal guess, based on tireless conversations with my GM, who has some good insider info, is this:

M2 production is going to remain low and very, very limited. Here is why: those who want the M2 and M2 only, are going to wait; those who are on the fence will likely move down to the M235i or up to the M3/M4.

Granted, some may move to other brands altogether, but overall, this is how BMW seems to be planning the next two years until LCI. After LCI, who knows?

One thing my GM talked about in regards to low production is the fact that retooling the factory is a lot of work for so few cars, especially when the 2-series Tourers are outselling the coupe (ALL versions combined) 2 to 1.
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      04-25-2016, 02:38 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
One thing my GM talked about in regards to low production is the fact that retooling the factory is a lot of work for so few cars, especially when the 2-series Tourers are outselling the coupe (ALL versions combined) 2 to 1.
Makes perfect sense on this front - coupes have the "lack of comparable utility" problem, even if that's not necessarily true in real life for folks like enthusiasts.

I bet an M2GC would outsell the M2 coupe - isn't the M3 outselling the M4?
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      04-25-2016, 02:59 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmboone25 View Post
I wonder if that type of demand will actually cause BMW to increase allocations and production of the M2. If people really have to wait a couple of years for a car, they might get impatient and go elsewhere.

That's what I did...
Hard to say at this point. My personal guess, based on tireless conversations with my GM, who has some good insider info, is this:

M2 production is going to remain low and very, very limited. Here is why: those who want the M2 and M2 only, are going to wait; those who are on the fence will likely move down to the M235i or up to the M3/M4.

Granted, some may move to other brands altogether, but overall, this is how BMW seems to be planning the next two years until LCI. After LCI, who knows?

One thing my GM talked about in regards to low production is the fact that retooling the factory is a lot of work for so few cars, especially when the 2-series Tourers are outselling the coupe (ALL versions combined) 2 to 1.
Exactly.

I've said this since day one.

The Two series coupe is a low volume car for BMW in all versions including the M version.

The 3/4 series and X models are where BMW spreads the butter on their bread, and very heavily at that. The active 2 is hampering increased production of 2 series coupes just like the original X1 was a high volume seller and production of the X1 was nearly 10x higher than 1 series coupes.
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      04-25-2016, 04:41 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
To be honest it depends. IMHO you can probably still get MSRP back selling next spring, due to the extremely low number of cars coming to Canada this year.
When you say extremely low, how many are you thinking?
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      04-25-2016, 04:51 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Makman View Post
You will lose, but not like a regular car or any other common sportscar like the M4 and AMG 45. It will hold value better than the two mentioned.
i bought a 80k msrp m4 with 11k miles that was 1 year old for 63k. the market hype for the m4 wasnt all that different from m2 and would expect it to depreciate the same %.

i'd be surprised if you cant pick up a used m2 for 45-50k within 12-18 months. unless the m2 is still heavilly back ordered, then probably still msrp. but typically the only reason to buy used is to save $
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      04-25-2016, 05:09 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thibs
When you say extremely low, how many are you thinking?
I've heard around 80 for the 2016 year split amongst the 50 dealerships.

BMW Winnipeg for example is only getting one car for all of 2016.
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      04-25-2016, 05:22 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
I've heard around 80 for the 2016 year split amongst the 50 dealerships.

BMW Winnipeg for example is only getting one car for all of 2016.
As of today my dealer has only been given 1 total car/allocation including the HEA unit.
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      04-25-2016, 09:15 PM   #18
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If demand is to be believed then my car should have sold by now.

If 80 more M2's are delivered to Canada this year, I won't be the only one for sale (let's assume 10% pop up for sale).

And this as I'm the only M2 for sale in Canada that is available tomorrow if one wanted it and not a future allocation....

Hmmm.
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      04-25-2016, 11:20 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmmmmazing View Post
If demand is to be believed then my car should have sold by now.

If 80 more M2's are delivered to Canada this year, I won't be the only one for sale (let's assume 10% pop up for sale).

And this as I'm the only M2 for sale in Canada that is available tomorrow if one wanted it and not a future allocation....

Hmmm.
Where in Canada are you located? I'm surprised it's still around..
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      04-26-2016, 06:39 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mmmmmazing View Post
If demand is to be believed then my car should have sold by now.

If 80 more M2's are delivered to Canada this year, I won't be the only one for sale (let's assume 10% pop up for sale).

And this as I'm the only M2 for sale in Canada that is available tomorrow if one wanted it and not a future allocation....

Hmmm.
To be fair, if you priced it at MSRP I'm sure someone would've picked it up by now. I haven't heard of anyone marking it up in Canada like they have been in the US, so people are more likely to wait and get one at MSRP.

In addition, most folks chomping at the bit for an M2 seem to want the 6MT instead of DCT (yourself included) so that may be a part of it too.

Hopefully you'll move it soon though, especially now that spring has finally shown up.
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      04-26-2016, 08:58 PM   #21
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If buy a car and drive it for a year you will lose money unless it is an exceptionally popular and short supply car. Just by paying the transaction costs (sales tax, DMV fees etc) your going to lose money in all likelihood.
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      04-26-2016, 09:28 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
Hard to say at this point. My personal guess, based on tireless conversations with my GM, who has some good insider info, is this:

M2 production is going to remain low and very, very limited. Here is why: those who want the M2 and M2 only, are going to wait; those who are on the fence will likely move down to the M235i or up to the M3/M4.
How's this for insider info: BMW's Head of Research and Development, Klaus Frohlich, said BMW has already doubled their target M2 production and will make as many as the market demands.
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