12-01-2017, 10:52 AM | #89 |
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12-01-2017, 11:03 AM | #90 | ||
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Sounds to me like the N55 is actually a better choice. Quote:
I think on the subject of the GT3, what is happening, is that the residuals on the leases are set ridiculously low. I know from a friend that his is set at 85k after 3 years, but most are listed for over $120k still. So the guys that are leasing them probably put their cars on the market 6-12 months prior to lease end, and hope someone bites. Even if they drop their asking price by $10k, they still walk away with money after paying of the residual and get in to another car. |
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12-01-2017, 11:27 AM | #91 |
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12-01-2017, 01:10 PM | #92 | |
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You might not, but others will, we don't make the market. If I listed my car for $70k, would anyone buy it? No, but you see the current listings. I will extend logic to the extreme. I really want a tesla roadster, but I'm not going to pay $250k, I'm going to wait 10 years until they are $50k and then it will be a bargain. If you wait, of course the M2 will cost less, it is depreciating. But you won't be driving one. There are A LOT of people that paid $5k over, hence a full sticker used price might not equate to a new price. See my next post. |
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12-01-2017, 01:18 PM | #93 | |
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Check the auction market. Auction cars have sold for $130k. So how the heck is anyone going to get one for less? This market isn't like the market for a Camry. If course the M2 will depreciate. Maybe everyone will hate the s55 M2 and the old cars will go up in value (haha). I won't count on that. The market for the M2 is a want it now market. At the moment. That will fade, if you want to wait and keep driving your Camry. |
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12-01-2017, 01:24 PM | #94 | |
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I really want to buy an e92 M3 and it seems like now is a good time as far as price, but it's not a good time for me as I don't have room for another car. I think they are going to go up in value for sure, but not so much they will be out of reach. I am just starting to research what kind of e92 M3 would be a smart buy, I don't know the differences in the different model years. As far as the N55 M2 I guess it will just hover a bit above the M240 used price as I assume most people would desire an M2 over the M240, even if the M240 is newer. I guess in some sense it's going to depend on what does the new 2 series bring? That's the Gxx platform? If the future non M models are all FWD then that will help all the old RWD 2 series cars hold their value a bit. Maybe they go down before they come back up though. |
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12-01-2017, 02:16 PM | #95 |
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12-01-2017, 02:59 PM | #96 | |
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You are probably right on dealers still asking $30k over. It's ridiculous. But honestly, if I had the means, I probably still rather spend the $30k mark up, because from a dealer you can lease the car and save on the taxes and get better rates than buying it used. AND, on these cars chances are they were tracked excessively, so why buy someone else's thrashed car, only to save a few hundred dollars per month? I haven't done the math, but what would the payments be on a used $130k GT3, financed at 72 months, versus leasing a new one from the dealer? I know my buddy pays about $2500/month leasing his, and he will sell it for $115k after 3 years, then pocketing $30k because the residual is $85k. The car was heavily tracked or it would be a deal. Can't imagine that the payments on a $130k car would be much lower, if at all. |
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12-01-2017, 04:50 PM | #97 |
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12-01-2017, 05:49 PM | #98 | |
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When we look at listing prices is one thing, but auctions are actual trades. I think some of the dealers will lose money on these cars, must be tricky business. Some cars are tracked, some are not. Huge disparity in good cars and beat cars. Half are garage queens. I have another spin on the lease math. Your buddy is paying $30k a year to fucking rent a car! After 3 years he will have spent $90k on depreciation! Recouping $30k isn't going to help much, reducing the cost to $60k. Hopefully he uses it as a business expense, which dramatically changes the economics. Oh and I could well imagine someone dreaming if they think they can track a lease car for 3 years and not expect to have a lease return adjustment. Porsche dealers aren't stupid. I wonder what experiences people have with that. |
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12-01-2017, 05:50 PM | #99 |
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12-01-2017, 06:23 PM | #100 | |
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Actually my buddy is only paying one third of that "rental" fee.because he is sharing the car with two other friends and they use it solely as a track car. His own car is a GT4, which gets a lot of track use also. Now that the GT3 lease is up, he is going to sell his GT4 as well, and take possession of a 991.2 GT3 in April. Must be rough. I forgot what year his GT3 is, but he's had it from early on and his lease is just now up, so I am not sure if the lease impact is truly there yet. Only one or two model years have expired by now. |
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12-01-2017, 06:37 PM | #101 |
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Only to church on Sundays . . . . actually do not even have winter tires for it, and will not drive it on its MPSS in the winter at all. It's up on a lift, Stabil-ed and being float charged, as I type this. Have not retired my certified 1M VO driving shoes yet :-)
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12-05-2017, 06:57 AM | #102 |
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@norMcal
I think your statement " supply has caught up to demand is factually incorrect. " Demand has dropped to meet supply ( in part due to the fact that savvy buyers as well as well informed dealers know that the M2 Competition coming), Not the other way around. Just because demand for the M2 has ebbed momentarily doesn't mean that will continue. Agree with others that " waiting for the bottom to fall" on M2 values is more a decision on limiting " how much fun will I have with my new M2. " Confucious says: The more one waits for the price to drop, the more time one loses enjoying their M2. As a 1M owner, I've certainly enjoyed the price drop hype that was " definitely gonna happen" to the 1M because the M2 was coming out. There are less than 5k M2 in the US Currently. Do people really feel that there are only say, 5001 people in the US population of 300 million that want to own an M2 ?? I don't know why anyone could feel that demand for the M2 has dropped so much that suddenly they will drop to 40k value anytime in the next 12 months. I mean geez... CosmosMpower was confident back in April of 2016 that he was gonna pick up one for around 40-45k about 6 months after the M2 came out because " #price drop gonna happen " He ended up getting in line for a new car and has been enjoying his car for over a year now and prices for used models STILL hasn't gotten to the price he was originally hoping for |
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12-05-2017, 08:21 AM | #103 | |
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The price drop is happening. Just look around. Will it continue? I don't know, but chances are people aren't going to pay MSRP for cars with 10-20k miles, when the dealer is selling them for that or less, as they currently seem to be. That is just common sense. Just one example on GarGurus where a private seller has dropped the price by $2k the other day, after the car was on the market for a couple of weeks. Last I checked he was asking $49k, and that was not the first one I've seen with an (asking) price of under $50k. So the evidence is against your argument, at least at the moment. We will see what happens when the M2 CS or whatever it is going to be comes out. |
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12-05-2017, 11:07 AM | #104 | |
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In absolute terms, yes the 1M is more rare than the M2. But in relative terms? What's more rare...3000 people chasing 800 1M, or 25,000 people chasing 5000 M2? I'm not predicting these numbers - I have no idea how many college juniors who are 2 years away from their first job are hoping for a chance at an M2, or how many Facebook programmers are waiting for the first round of their options packages to vest so they can get an M2. The point is, both the 1M and M2 boast production numbers that may be dramatically smaller than number of people who want one today, tomorrow, and 2 years from now. |
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12-05-2017, 11:14 AM | #105 |
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I guess. But the fact is there are cars on the lots at or under msrp. That’s a fact in Houston.
If supply didn’t exceed demand this wouldn’t be the case. |
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12-05-2017, 11:19 AM | #106 | |
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12-05-2017, 11:22 AM | #107 | |
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The only thing that matters is actual selling prices, which clearly and unambiguously reflect supply and demand at any instant in time.
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12-05-2017, 11:41 AM | #108 | |
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12-05-2017, 11:58 AM | #109 | |
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If the M2 competition wasn't coming , one could make that conclusion. However the M2 comp is known to be coming. Therefore demand for the original M2 is dropping. As is supply. Dealers aren't gonna order a bunch of older models if they don't have to. Look at the way X3 sales dropped as the new model is coming out. X3 sales of the new model will be strong again. Same will happen in July when the M2 Competition version comes out. Same thing happens when the next iPhone is coming .. Most savvy M2 buyers are wary of being " that guy " that bought the iPhone 8 knowing the iPhone X was coming. The last thing you want to do is trade the 8 back in right away .. |
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12-05-2017, 11:58 AM | #110 | |
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Having bought a number of used cars in the last few years, including maybe 3 that are considered to be classics (996TT; 1M; Z3M Coupe) and having some sense of the automotive marketplace, I would advise against it. The aphorism that fits best would be, "cheaper in, cheaper out." This applies to most purchases where the item being purchased is apt to be resold, such as a house or a car. That house that cost $20,000 less because it backs up to a busy road, will get you less when you resell it, because most buyers prefer to buy houses that are not exposed to lots of road noise. Similarly, if you buy a used car with some age and miles on it, then resell it later, the miles and age the car had on it when you bought it used will also effect the resale price. If on the other hand you bought new for several thousand dollars more, you will only lose whatever the depreciation there is from when you bought it new, and the extra depreciation in the case of the used M2 cited doesn't compensate enough. Don't get me wrong, I love to buy slightly used cars at advantageous prices; I did that with my 2013 135i coupe, and with my 135is convertible. But I saved around 40% on each of those, and they were only 2 years old and had low mileage at my time of purchase. Here, with this M2, you appear to get the worst of both worlds; a minuscule discount plus age and mileage, and to boot, no new car smell!
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