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      05-03-2020, 11:56 PM   #1
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Predicting M2 Values

Where do you guys see OG M2 and M2 Comp values within the next year or two? I am already seeing higher mileage OG M2s for under 40k. M2 Comp still strong at low 50s. I think after COVID is through we should see OG m2 for 30-35k by 2021 and M2 Comp for low 40s. What do you guys think?
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      05-04-2020, 12:46 AM   #2
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We bought a 2017 with 28k miles 6 months ago for 42k.

Paid 50% financed 50% over 3 years. My thinking at the time was that at 6 years and 50k miles it would be around 25-30k

With the situation now I think probably closer to 20-25k. BUT I think a big factor will be the new M3/4 and the next gen M2.

With the styling shaping up to be what it looks like to be on the M3/4 and the next gen M2 getting even bigger, the F87 might hold its value a little better.
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      05-04-2020, 02:34 PM   #3
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I think it will be a while before they drop below $30,000.

I feel like F80 M3's got under 50k pretty fast but have stayed steady in that 38-45k range for 2-3 years now.

I think for the OG M2 that number is 35k, which a large number seem to be getting there. But I think they will stay in that 35-40k range for the next 3-4 years, just like the F80 has and is.

Someone once told me "think about how much car that is for 35k" when talking about the F80 M3. I thought that was actually a pretty good point. It is an M car, so they will never be cheap. A nice E36 M3 is back to 15-20k, and a lot of people consider that one of the less desirable M cars.
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      05-04-2020, 03:07 PM   #4
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let me just peer into my crystal ball...
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      05-05-2020, 02:03 PM   #5
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let me just peer into my crystal ball...
You ever think about doing comedy?
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      05-05-2020, 04:48 PM   #6
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      05-21-2020, 05:49 PM   #7
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M2 is a MASSIVE bargain at $35k.

I think they will drop into the low $30s this winter.

Also, the M2 at auction is high 20s low 30s.

Remember, 2017 m2's will be off lease in a few months. So more cars coming into the market.

Pricing is supply and demand.
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      05-22-2020, 02:47 AM   #8
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M2 is a MASSIVE bargain at $35k.

I think they will drop into the low $30s this winter.

Also, the M2 at auction is high 20s low 30s.

Remember, 2017 m2's will be off lease in a few months. So more cars coming into the market.

Pricing is supply and demand.
Great minds think alike. The off lease cars should take quite a big dip right? I am hoping to get one within the next 2 years in the under 35k range
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      05-22-2020, 07:47 PM   #9
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Great minds think alike. The off lease cars should take quite a big dip right? I am hoping to get one within the next 2 years in the under 35k range
With more cars on the market, values decrease. Especially since the general acknowledgement that the S55>N55, so the "base" M2 is not as desirable.

There are 226 M2 on cars.com right now (MY16-MY18).

Lowest price: $32,900
Highest price: $51,795.

So, let's say the right price is $40k for a clean example (1 owner, sub 30k miles). $35k for 1 owner, 35-45k miles - that is a steal.

May of 2021, a nice example (1 owner, sub 30k miles) should be $36-38k just due to glut of 2018 cars coming off lease.
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      05-23-2020, 08:43 AM   #10
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How many leases do we think there were? I assumed most people purchased because the lease terms, particularly the residuals, were so terrible.
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      05-23-2020, 05:44 PM   #11
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I don't believe there will be a lot of lease returns. As stated previously, lease rates are horrendous and people who go down this route may just want the car more than buying it when it makes sense financially. Or they are just super rich and do not care.

Regardless, it is a win for the second hand buyer as prices have come down over the last few weeks. And there are plenty of M2s and M2Cs for sale with relatively low mileage.

If I was speculating or wanting to buy something to retain the analog experience. I would choose a e92 M3, replace/upgrade the rod bearings vs. getting a F87 M2C. After all these years, I still think it's a fantastic vehicle
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      05-23-2020, 08:27 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JCZ5 View Post
I don't believe there will be a lot of lease returns. As stated previously, lease rates are horrendous and people who go down this route may just want the car more than buying it when it makes sense financially. Or they are just super rich and do not care.

Regardless, it is a win for the second hand buyer as prices have come down over the last few weeks. And there are plenty of M2s and M2Cs for sale with relatively low mileage.

If I was speculating or wanting to buy something to retain the analog experience. I would choose a e92 M3, replace/upgrade the rod bearings vs. getting a F87 M2C. After all these years, I still think it's a fantastic vehicle
For the money I'm going to spend on an M2C, I am still seriously wondering whether I should spend just a tad more and get a low-mileage 1M. Yea, I'd drive it and put too many miles on it, but it's fairly robust and should still retain it's value even with some added mileage.
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      05-23-2020, 08:40 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F82PRETEND View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCZ5 View Post
I don't believe there will be a lot of lease returns. As stated previously, lease rates are horrendous and people who go down this route may just want the car more than buying it when it makes sense financially. Or they are just super rich and do not care.

Regardless, it is a win for the second hand buyer as prices have come down over the last few weeks. And there are plenty of M2s and M2Cs for sale with relatively low mileage.

If I was speculating or wanting to buy something to retain the analog experience. I would choose a e92 M3, replace/upgrade the rod bearings vs. getting a F87 M2C. After all these years, I still think it's a fantastic vehicle
For the money I'm going to spend on an M2C, I am still seriously wondering whether I should spend just a tad more and get a low-mileage 1M. Yea, I'd drive it and put too many miles on it, but it's fairly robust and should still retain it's value even with some added mileage.
That is a very good question and many have debated this exact scenario before, which means it can go either way.

Based on multiple reviews, the M2C drives "better" than the 1M. Also, if you care about on-paper figures, the M2C far outperforms the 1M, no question.

However, your statement about wanting to drive the 1M is key. In this case, I'm guessing you care more about the overall driving experience. Keep in mind, a good driving experience can also mean enjoying the oddities or even deficiencies in the car. In that case, I would go with the 1M.

Sure value is always important, but retained value on a higher mileage car is sorta irrelevant. Sure a 100K 1M will retain better value than a 100K M2C. However, you're at a point of diminishing returns when you reach that end of the spectrum. Not to mention, you may be overly concerned to even drive the car, which will ultimately hinder your enjoyment of the driving experience.

I thought long and hard about the 1M. However, I want to drive the hell out of my car and keep it for a very long time. For my specific use case, the M2C fits so much better in terms of refinement and what I am looking for. The other key factor is the fact the 1M is trading at or above the price of a M2C. I personally do not want to pay for a premium that again does not fit my needs.

If I have a primarily fun car, I would gladly add the 1M as my secondary fun car. But this makes sense because I would be keeping the mileage low, thus still retaining some value.

Now I say all this, but I can also be the guy that says he'll with it and buys the 1M without caring for miles or value. And basically keep the car for the rest of my life (or thereabouts). I think that would be a good play, without thinking of value.
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      05-23-2020, 08:47 PM   #14
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After owning a 135i for 4 years I'd say if your looking at the 1M per reviews and internet fame it may look great but it's gonna feel old and querky compared to the M2/M2C.

I'd love to own one but there would be at least 3-4 other cars I'd like to own before it.

I was at the track today and we were talking about ''the next step" aka Porsche etc. And a thing that came back of the discussion is that the fun of the M2/M2C is it does almost all the 911 can do while costing a lot less in entry price and consumables, costs 50-60k while looking like a 100k car for most ppl.

I want to own a 911 some day but there are a few things I don't want to do:

- be afraid to put miles
- scared of loosing value from track or abuse

So when I see ppl have the same sort of attitude with a 1M I find it sad, life is short, better enjoy the crap out of every mile. Won't be time when your dead..
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      05-23-2020, 09:45 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JCZ5 View Post
That is a very good question and many have debated this exact scenario before, which means it can go either way.

Based on multiple reviews, the M2C drives "better" than the 1M. Also, if you care about on-paper figures, the M2C far outperforms the 1M, no question.

However, your statement about wanting to drive the 1M is key. In this case, I'm guessing you care more about the overall driving experience. Keep in mind, a good driving experience can also mean enjoying the oddities or even deficiencies in the car. In that case, I would go with the 1M.

Sure value is always important, but retained value on a higher mileage car is sorta irrelevant. Sure a 100K 1M will retain better value than a 100K M2C. However, you're at a point of diminishing returns when you reach that end of the spectrum. Not to mention, you may be overly concerned to even drive the car, which will ultimately hinder your enjoyment of the driving experience.

I thought long and hard about the 1M. However, I want to drive the hell out of my car and keep it for a very long time. For my specific use case, the M2C fits so much better in terms of refinement and what I am looking for. The other key factor is the fact the 1M is trading at or above the price of a M2C. I personally do not want to pay for a premium that again does not fit my needs.

If I have a primarily fun car, I would gladly add the 1M as my secondary fun car. But this makes sense because I would be keeping the mileage low, thus still retaining some value.

Now I say all this, but I can also be the guy that says he'll with it and buys the 1M without caring for miles or value. And basically keep the car for the rest of my life (or thereabouts). I think that would be a good play, without thinking of value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLF69 View Post
After owning a 135i for 4 years I'd say if your looking at the 1M per reviews and internet fame it may look great but it's gonna feel old and querky compared to the M2/M2C.

I'd love to own one but there would be at least 3-4 other cars I'd like to own before it.

I was at the track today and we were talking about ''the next step" aka Porsche etc. And a thing that came back of the discussion is that the fun of the M2/M2C is it does almost all the 911 can do while costing a lot less in entry price and consumables, costs 50-60k while looking like a 100k car for most ppl.

I want to own a 911 some day but there are a few things I don't want to do:

- be afraid to put miles
- scared of loosing value from track or abuse

So when I see ppl have the same sort of attitude with a 1M I find it sad, life is short, better enjoy the crap out of every mile. Won't be time when your dead..
I get you both. I am not afraid of putting the miles on...if you're not doing that...you're definitely missing the point. I've had a 135i 6MT, and I absolutely loved it...granted that was 10 years ago. My thought is, I'd own the car for 2-3 years, whatever it is, therefore starting with a 10-12k 1M and selling it at 30-40k miles would still mean not a very high cost of use from the depreciation standpoint. That said, I agree the M2, especially in M2C form is far superior. I think my biggest concern is that I am unsure if Europe is going to happen, even though I am shooting for late September and therefore I want to find something else. In the end, I am still leaning to the M2...because, having done ED, it is just that cool. And for the money, a brand new car with the warranty makes the most sense. My mind will change in the next 7 seconds, of course!
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      05-24-2020, 12:31 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLF69 View Post
After owning a 135i for 4 years I'd say if your looking at the 1M per reviews and internet fame it may look great but it's gonna feel old and querky compared to the M2/M2C.

I'd love to own one but there would be at least 3-4 other cars I'd like to own before it.

I was at the track today and we were talking about ''the next step" aka Porsche etc. And a thing that came back of the discussion is that the fun of the M2/M2C is it does almost all the 911 can do while costing a lot less in entry price and consumables, costs 50-60k while looking like a 100k car for most ppl.

I want to own a 911 some day but there are a few things I don't want to do:

- be afraid to put miles
- scared of loosing value from track or abuse

So when I see ppl have the same sort of attitude with a 1M I find it sad, life is short, better enjoy the crap out of every mile. Won't be time when your dead..
*morbid but true*. everyday this life matters. another day you don't enjoy the miles is another day that is NOT bringing joy. yes the 1M is great. but if you wanna rip the miles up, go get that M2comp and don't worry about resale. the open market will determine the resale price of the M2comp in the future (not always promised). as people modify the cars, the stock ones should retain solid value given its M heritage. also, this car was built on orders and allocations. Not limited series but certainly not flooding the market.
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      05-24-2020, 12:46 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JggyM2 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLF69 View Post
After owning a 135i for 4 years I'd say if your looking at the 1M per reviews and internet fame it may look great but it's gonna feel old and querky compared to the M2/M2C.

I'd love to own one but there would be at least 3-4 other cars I'd like to own before it.

I was at the track today and we were talking about ''the next step" aka Porsche etc. And a thing that came back of the discussion is that the fun of the M2/M2C is it does almost all the 911 can do while costing a lot less in entry price and consumables, costs 50-60k while looking like a 100k car for most ppl.

I want to own a 911 some day but there are a few things I don't want to do:

- be afraid to put miles
- scared of loosing value from track or abuse

So when I see ppl have the same sort of attitude with a 1M I find it sad, life is short, better enjoy the crap out of every mile. Won't be time when your dead..
*morbid but true*. everyday this life matters. another day you don't enjoy the miles is another day that is NOT bringing joy. yes the 1M is great. but if you wanna rip the miles up, go get that M2comp and don't worry about resale. the open market will determine the resale price of the M2comp in the future (not always promised). as people modify the cars, the stock ones should retain solid value given its M heritage. also, this car was built on orders and allocations. Not limited series but certainly not flooding the market.
They are definitely meant to be enjoyed...it certainly wasn't a resale-centered decision when I drove my M4 across the country and back last summer for Advanced M School at VIR. It was 100% awesome and totally worth any and every penny of depreciation!
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      05-24-2020, 09:47 AM   #18
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A 2018 M2 with 30k (LBB, DCT, Exec package) with an MSRP of $60,845 sold for $38k.

It was a one owner, not CPOed and sold by Advantage BMW Midtown out of Houston, TX.

I was negotiating on this car but sold yesterday at their asking price.
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      05-24-2020, 10:32 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by mtl88 View Post
A 2018 M2 with 30k (LBB, DCT, Exec package) with an MSRP of $60,845 sold for $38k.

It was a one owner, not CPOed and sold by Advantage BMW Midtown out of Houston, TX.

I was negotiating on this car but sold yesterday at their asking price.
See if you can wait another 6 months to a year. Im sure this market will take an interesting turn and favor those looking for used car deals
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      05-24-2020, 10:39 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtl88 View Post
A 2018 M2 with 30k (LBB, DCT, Exec package) with an MSRP of $60,845 sold for $38k.

It was a one owner, not CPOed and sold by Advantage BMW Midtown out of Houston, TX.

I was negotiating on this car but sold yesterday at their asking price.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cactusjack View Post
See if you can wait another 6 months to a year. Im sure this market will take an interesting turn and favor those looking for used car deals
Tough to say, I'd say keep looking and negotiating hard and if you get a deal you're happy with, take it. A couple times last week I saw segments on CNBC that said the used market had started to recover already. Obviously, for these cars, that recovery will different than for a 3 year-old Honda Pilot or Ford Explorer. People aren't going to want to be in any kind of public transport...they're going to want a car. Could be good for the used market. Who knows!
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