[S2000_Europe]

Originally Posted by akkando

The replacement is a year and a half away at least.

isn't the newer model coming in the 2022?

[Jeff01234567]

Carguru has a price trends tool to measure used car prices. As you can see, used M2 prices bottomed out shortly after the pandemic first hit the US before steadily climbing through 2020 and continuing on until now. This correlates with my anecdotal experiences as well.

You can't specify model year or specific model within a series (335i vs 328i) so the tool is not that accurate for some models but should be pretty accurate for the M2 since it only has 6 model years, 1 engine choice in any given model year, and limited options to skew the original MSRP.

[Jeff01234567]

Just for kicks, I pull data for one of our closest competitors in the market, the Porsche 718. The prices have REALLY jumped the gun here, a used 718 Cayman costs around $10K more than it did exactly a year ago. But maybe the release of the GT4 is messing with the prices, since I noticed a lot of very low mileage used GT4s on sale with the intention of flipping.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by S2000_Europe

isn't the newer model coming in the 2022?

December 2022, so if one were to get an early one I assume early 2023 is more realistic, so that's more than a year and a half away.

[zstokes]

Originally Posted by Jeff01234567

Just for kicks, I pull data for one of our closest competitors in the market, the Porsche 718. The prices have REALLY jumped the gun here, a used 718 Cayman costs around $10K more than it did exactly a year ago. But maybe the release of the GT4 is messing with the prices, since I noticed a lot of very low mileage used GT4s on sale with the intention of flipping.

Even the prices for 987 Caymans are through the roof.
Feels systemic to me.

[JEM3]

Originally Posted by CptSL0W

I initially went with them but they didn’t have an allocation in hand, but advised they could definitely get one. Elmhurst reached out and said they had one in their name and it was the last allocation in their territory, so I ended up going with them. Both dealerships were great to work with!

Also your drive back home sounds pretty AMAZING! I’m so ocd that I’m going to drive my car straight to the detailer to add PPF on the front end and add a ceramic coat.

I have an allocation I can get in St. Petersburg, FL and BMW of Barrington.

If it was a long term car, I would get a new one, but I plan on keeping it for 1-2 years then going into a G80 or next gen M2 (have a feeling next gen will have MXdrive and as a daily in Chicago that would be a gamechanger for me). So I want to go used as I don't want to eat the majority of depreciation.

There is one in New York, alpine white with 9k Miles with a bunch of upgrades for $54k, I'm thinking of going with that one and purchasing a PPI since I wont be able to go see it in person.

[MisterGoober]

It's also supply/demand. Supply is on its way down to zero practically as the last allocations are grabbed. That leaves only the used market for 1.5 years. When the M3 was discontinued, the M4 stuck around with enough M4 inventory at dealers to only have a small gap between the redesigns.

When the OG M2 was released, getting an allocation was near impossible and it stayed that way for quite a while. Getting a G80 M3/M4 right now seems far easier than trying to snag an M2 on its initial release.

If the G87 M2 becomes fatter, more digital, and less analog, expect the F87 prices to stay high relative to age/mileage. I don't think we'll know until the G87 is revealed.

How many other non-FWD cars with more than 2 seats are available in stick?
-WRX/STI (pending redesign, AWD only)
-Golf R (pending redesign, AWD only)
-Mustang/Camaro
-M3/M4
-911 S

If you're an enthusiast and want a manual, pickings are slim. Add two-seaters and you've only added in the Porsche 718. Add performance FWD and you have the Civic R and Golf.

Unless something changes to make demand fall of a cliff, prices should stay stable as supply isn't changing.

[Multimodal]

I ended up deciding to buy new. Placed my order today. I paid less for a brand new final production M2C than almost every used 2019-2021 is asking on AutoTrader. So strange.

[Fugly M3]

If I could be motivated to sell mine...what would I replace it with? That's the dilemma. If these prices hold for another year or so, then maybe I make the P car spring/summer ED jump a year early. Ugh...and why did I sell my F82 in December!

[NWest]

Originally Posted by MisterGoober

It's also supply/demand. Supply is on its way down to zero practically as the last allocations are grabbed. That leaves only the used market for 1.5 years. When the M3 was discontinued, the M4 stuck around with enough M4 inventory at dealers to only have a small gap between the redesigns.

When the OG M2 was released, getting an allocation was near impossible and it stayed that way for quite a while. Getting a G80 M3/M4 right now seems far easier than trying to snag an M2 on its initial release.

If the G87 M2 becomes fatter, more digital, and less analog, expect the F87 prices to stay high relative to age/mileage. I don't think we'll know until the G87 is revealed.

How many other non-FWD cars with more than 2 seats are available in stick?
-WRX/STI (pending redesign, AWD only)
-Golf R (pending redesign, AWD only)
-Mustang/Camaro
-M3/M4
-911 S

If you're an enthusiast and want a manual, pickings are slim. Add two-seaters and you've only added in the Porsche 718. Add performance FWD and you have the Civic R and Golf.

Unless something changes to make demand fall of a cliff, prices should stay stable as supply isn't changing.

You can add these to your list of non-FWD and available with 6MT options:
Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing
Cadillac CT5-V Blackwing
Dodge Charger R/T and Hellcat flavors

[Al Bundy's Dodge]

Originally Posted by rcouchh

Almost always better to not buy fully in cash and keep that money invested. Pretty easy to make more than a 3-4% interest rate with just about any sound investment out there.

Ex. I put $30k down on my M2C, the other $30k I kept invested and doubled it in a matter of 6 months.

While I agree with not paying cash for a car, I'd like to hear more about how to double $30k in six months.

Thanks

[rcouchh]

Originally Posted by Al Bundy's Dodge

While I agree with not paying cash for a car, I'd like to hear more about how to double $30k in six months.

Thanks

Cryptocurrencies... although I must say it's just as easy to make 30k into 15k haha

[popcornten]

Long story short if people are willing to pay the prices then yes the market is pricing them correctly!

[JEM3]

Originally Posted by popcornten

Long story short if people are willing to pay the prices then yes the market is pricing them correctly!

I'm not so sure they are. The ones in the Chicagoarea seem to be sitting from what I can tell.

[Jeff01234567]

Originally Posted by popcornten

Long story short if people are willing to pay the prices then yes the market is pricing them correctly!

Just because people are willing to pay the price doesn't mean that something is priced correctly...it just means people aren't understanding the value of what they are buying. Was GME priced correctly when it ran up to $400 a share? Given the company position and future outlook of course not, but that didn't stop people from buying it.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by JEM3

I'm not so sure they are. The ones in the Chicagoarea seem to be sitting from what I can tell.

Most of them seem to be selling fast or a reasonable amount of time. So the market is probably pricing them correctly relative to the rest of the CURRENT market. However if this is a just a COVID market then it will adjust eventually. If it's related to supply, then I would expect it to adjust when the G87 comes out unless it's a dud.

[popcornten]

Originally Posted by Jeff01234567

Just because people are willing to pay the price doesn't mean that something is priced correctly...it just means people aren't understanding the value of what they are buying. Was GME priced correctly when it ran up to $400 a share? Given the company position and future outlook of course not, but that didn't stop people from buying it.

Lol I think that’s literally how you define a market. Sellers ask a price, and if buyers are willing to pay it then the price was correct for that good. Supply and demand will dictate if the price should be lower by sitting on the market for awhile. The value of any good is what someone is willing to pay so the market is clearly speaking. What we think on a message board doesn’t really matter.

I just watched a 2021 preowned manual with a few thousand miles at the store my order is coming into get listed right about MSRP and come offline in a matter of days.

It’s not nearly the same thing to compare the price/value of a consumer product vs a stock price being intentionally manipulated by some guys on Reddit.

[Fugly M3]

Price is mostly, if not entirely, a function of a moment in time. If someone is willing to freely pay a given price at a given moment in time, it is necessarily the correct price at that exact moment in time. You or I may not agree with that price, or you or I may not see the value, but absent undue influence, coercion or fraud, it is a valid price for that very moment in time. We can always look back and say something was never worth whatever the selling price was. However, at the moment in time it was sold for that price, by a willing seller to a willing buyer, it indeed was.

[W///]

Originally Posted by F8SEVEN

If I could be motivated to sell mine...what would I replace it with? That's the dilemma. If these prices hold for another year or so, then maybe I make the P car spring/summer ED jump a year early. Ugh...and why did I sell my F82 in December!

I don't think there's much out there that's new-ish for $60k I'd rather have over the M2C personally. The only car that interests me in this price range is the G87.

$60k also doesn't get you a used Porsche that I'd actually want. Was surfing Autotrader last weekend and saw a 997.2 C2S with a $72k asking price. Car market is just too hot right now for me.

[Fugly M3]

Originally Posted by W///

I don't think there's much out there that's new-ish for $60k I'd rather have over the M2C personally. The only car that interests me in this price range is the G87.

$60k also doesn't get you a used Porsche that I'd actually want. Was surfing Autotrader last weekend and saw a 997.2 C2S with a $72k asking price. Car market is just too hot right now for me.

Very true...but you had to make me look! I found a CPO 2009 997.2 CS in Florida in cream white for $55k...one of my favorite Porsche colors! Then I saw it was sold. PHEW!

[S2000_Europe]

Originally Posted by F8SEVEN

Very true...but you had to make me look! I found a CPO 2009 997.2 CS in Florida in cream white for $55k...one of my favorite Porsche colors! Then I saw it was sold. PHEW!

That is a good price!, I sold my MY06 C2S 997.1, 3 years ago, for $50K with 40K miles. 997s are the 911 that would make me trade my M2C without hesitation

[JEM3]

Just to add more data here as of today:

Just got quoted $63.500 on a 2020 LBB DCT M2 Comp with 8,500 miles (two owners, 2nd owner only put 100 miles on it though).

Doing the math on it:

New one came out to about $71,000 out the door. Used one came in at around $70,000.

Used market is indeed dumb at the moment.