[KevinC]

I was just poking around on the BMWFS financial offers page for February. 0.9% up to 60 months to purchase, but for shitz & giggles I looked at the leasing offer. $809/month, 36 months, 10k/yr, $4999 total drive-off. And that includes Exec package and metallic paint, and the capitalized cost is discounted about $2900 from list. But the best part? Residual. In 3 years you can buy the car for $33,997. Holy carp! A 3-yr-old sub-30k-mile M2 Comp will be worth a LOT more than $34k 3 years from now - $50k wouldn't surprise me at all. Something to consider for those in the market.

[maxcbrdriver]

Maybe I'm not understanding this, but doesn't this just mean it's financially prudent to buy the car at the end of the lease? But if that's the plan, you're better off just financing since you can do it over 60 mo as opposed to 36 mo. And that's assuming the total dollars are equal between the options (ignoring time value of money for the moment). In reality, financing offers not just a longer payment term, but a lower total cost. The lease appears to be a bad option the more I think about it.

[ASAP]

Lol... check you math... who gets the value here?

4999 drive off plus 35 payments at $809 plus tax of say 6% = $35K... plus $33K to buyout and repaying taxes again...= $68k what is the deal here?

[maxcbrdriver]

Financing:
MSRP = 61645
Down Payment = 0
Interest = 0.9%
Term = 60
Total Cost = 63066

Lease
809/mo * 36 mo + 4999 + 33997 = 68120

So you pay less and do it over more time with financing. Lease actually seems pretty bad.

[KevinC]

Let's say the car is worth $50k at lease end. Yes, perhaps optimistic, but not at all unrealistic IMHO. You owe $34k at that point. You can buy it out and flip it for a $16k profit - or if somehow it has managed to depreciate to at or below the residual, simply return it - NOT a great deal compared to purchasing, I agree there. But if you make $16k flipping it, That reduces the lease cost from $33,997 to $17,997 - or roughly $500/month to drive this awesome machine and walk away (after flip). Hypothetical, yes. But not unrealistic IMHO.

I am buying mine (ordered last week) because that works fine for me. But this lease option *seems* attractive, based on the low residual. Or I'm all wet, a definite possibility.

[trey100]

The only difference between a lease and a finance is the $995 acquisition fee in a lease and any difference in interest rate charged in the lease deal vs current finance offers. There's not much magic to a lease calculation. Current lease is at 2% interest so higher than the 0.9% in financing. So the delta is simply the additional 1% and $995 acquisition.

Also, note that the details say this car has a $64,145 MSRP, not $61k, as it includes the M drivers package in their assumption. Also the $4999 includes the first month payment so any comparison needs to be based on 35 months at 809, not 36. Lastly it assumes a paltry $675 contribution from the dealership.

All in all, it costs a couple of k more to lease and then buy at the above differences. On a car with this low a residual like the M2 it doesn't make sense to lease since you are paying a disproportionate amount over the first 3 years. To recover you would need to then buy out the lease and sell rather than just hand back.

Typically you lease because you have the choice to just hand it in. If you get into a non-totaled accident, and you bought it, you are now stuck with the car that no one will want to buy. With a lease you don't care, you just hand it back. Also with a lease you can drive the car like you don't own it (you don't) as you know you are going to hand it back in. That's worth a couple of k to some people.

The F80s were a great example of a perfect lease car.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by KevinC

Let's say the car is worth $50k at lease end. Yes, perhaps optimistic, but not at all unrealistic IMHO. You owe $34k at that point. You can buy it out and flip it for a $16k profit - or if somehow it has managed to depreciate to at or below the residual, simply return it - NOT a great deal compared to purchasing, I agree there. But if you make $16k flipping it, That reduces the lease cost from $33,997 to $17,997 - or roughly $500/month to drive this awesome machine and walk away (after flip). Hypothetical, yes. But not unrealistic IMHO.

I am buying mine (ordered last week) because that works fine for me. But this lease option *seems* attractive, based on the low residual. Or I'm all wet, a definite possibility.

That's really hypothetical but I could see the car being worth 45K after 3 years but that $809 a month lease is for 7.5K miles per year.

[KevinC]

Originally Posted by ASAP

That's really hypothetical but I could see the car being worth 45K after 3 years but that $809 a month lease is for 7.5K miles per year.

Fine print says 36k miles or 10k/yr

[keylime503]

Terrible deal. That's $34,124 spent over 3 years with nothing to show for it. Whereas if you bought it and sold it after three years, you can likely sell it for over $40k which means you only spent 20-25k. Why pay $10k more to lease?

[chris719]

Originally Posted by KevinC

Let's say the car is worth $50k at lease end. Yes, perhaps optimistic, but not at all unrealistic IMHO. You owe $34k at that point. You can buy it out and flip it for a $16k profit - or if somehow it has managed to depreciate to at or below the residual, simply return it - NOT a great deal compared to purchasing, I agree there. But if you make $16k flipping it, That reduces the lease cost from $33,997 to $17,997 - or roughly $500/month to drive this awesome machine and walk away (after flip). Hypothetical, yes. But not unrealistic IMHO.

I am buying mine (ordered last week) because that works fine for me. But this lease option *seems* attractive, based on the low residual. Or I'm all wet, a definite possibility.

There is almost zero chance the car is worth $50k at lease end anyway.

[keylime503]

Originally Posted by chris719

There is almost zero chance the car is worth $50k at lease end anyway.

I disagree. Used 2019 M2Cs are routinely in the low to mid 50k range.

[Nettles]

Originally Posted by keylime503

I disagree. Used 2019 M2Cs are routinely in the low to mid 50k range.

Only because there is such low inventory in the nation with most being sub 10k miles. Most 19-20 are trading for mid $50k’s, which makes no sense. At that point just buy new. A 2019 won’t be worth anything near $50k in 2024 especially with G87. Doesn’t matter if the new model is good or not there’s no way an outdated model will be that close to MSRP of a new one that on paper will most likely outperform it in every single way. M models that appreciate take many years after the end of its generation cycle to happen. M2c is that candidate, but we’re nowhere near it.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by keylime503

I disagree. Used 2019 M2Cs are routinely in the low to mid 50k range.

The car has MSRP of $60650 with executive package and metallic paint. There is no way it will be worth $50000 at 36 months with 36k miles on it. None. Just trying to be realistic here... maybe if it was never driven.

[mwh2009]

To me the only thing that's ever been attractive about leasing was that if your car is in an accident or damaged, as long as you get it repaired by the dealer, they have to eat any depreciation in resale value as a result of the accident and you get to walk away from it at lease end.

[keylime503]

Originally Posted by chris719

The car has MSRP of $60650 with executive package and metallic paint. There is no way it will be worth $50000 at 36 months with 36k miles on it. None. Just trying to be realistic here... maybe if it was never driven.

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...ckType=listing

2019 M2C with 23k miles listed for 54k. Looking at the pics I only see 6MT and exec package so the MSRP should be $60,650 (same spec as my car). Obviously there are no three year old M2Cs yet since the car has only been around since 2019 but if we extrapolate this one more year and another 12k miles you're right around $50k. And yes, I know this is just one car (there aren't exactly a lot of 6MT 2019 M2Cs on the market...) and depreciation is not linear (but you would expect depreciation to slow down instead of speed up).

[Nettles]

Originally Posted by keylime503

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...ckType=listing

2019 M2C with 23k miles listed for 54k. Looking at the pics I only see 6MT and exec package so the MSRP should be $60,650 (same spec as my car). Obviously there are no three year old M2Cs yet since the car has only been around since 2019 but if we extrapolate this one more year and another 12k miles you're right around $50k. And yes, I know this is just one car (there aren't exactly a lot of 6MT 2019 M2Cs on the market...) and depreciation is not linear (but you would expect depreciation to slow down instead of speed up).

Respectfully, you're not making a good argument here. 10% off MSRP seems to be a dream, but 6-7% seems doable from the pricing thread. That puts the car at about ~$56,500 for NEW. I'm sorry who wants to pay $54k for a 23k mile used M car?

Again this market is very confused and not accurate at the moment. Low inventory, low low mileage, and covid have made it make no sense. The incentive to buy used is to save a good chunk of change. It's not happening with the M2C and there are PLENTY of examples listed for $55k+. Did you see the KBB spread listed on that exact page you sent? $47k-$55k. I've never seen an almost $10k delta and there is no reason to justify the high end for a normal production car. Three years time these will go for low low $40k's. Should be lower, but it is a special car at the end of the day. There's no question this car will demand a premium in the future, but we're nowhere near that point.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Nettles

Respectfully, you're not making a good argument here. 10% off MSRP seems to be a dream, but 6-7% seems doable from the pricing thread. That puts the car at about ~$56,500 for NEW. I'm sorry who wants to pay $54k for a 23k mile used M car?

Again this market is very confused and not accurate at the moment. Low inventory, low low mileage, and covid have made it make no sense. The incentive to buy used is to save a good chunk of change. It's not happening with the M2C and there are PLENTY of examples listed for $55k+. Did you see the KBB spread listed on that exact page you sent? $47k-$55k. I've never seen an almost $10k delta and there is no reason to justify the high end for a normal production car. Three years time these will go for low low $40k's. Should be lower, but it is a special car at the end of the day. There's no question this car will demand a premium in the future, but we're nowhere near that point.

I do agree the market for used M2s is overpriced... but in 3 months we are done with production until the new car comes in 2023... there are only like 50 for sale in the USA right now... what happens once all those new one are sold?

This car will be close to $50K for a while i'd guess.

[keylime503]

Originally Posted by Nettles

Respectfully, you're not making a good argument here. 10% off MSRP seems to be a dream, but 6-7% seems doable from the pricing thread. That puts the car at about ~$56,500 for NEW. I'm sorry who wants to pay $54k for a 23k mile used M car?

Again this market is very confused and not accurate at the moment. Low inventory, low low mileage, and covid have made it make no sense. The incentive to buy used is to save a good chunk of change. It's not happening with the M2C and there are PLENTY of examples listed for $55k+. Did you see the KBB spread listed on that exact page you sent? $47k-$55k. I've never seen an almost $10k delta and there is no reason to justify the high end for a normal production car. Three years time these will go for low low $40k's. Should be lower, but it is a special car at the end of the day. There's no question this car will demand a premium in the future, but we're nowhere near that point.

Hang on, where did I say anything about it being a GOOD idea to buy a used M2C. I 100% agree it's dumb to buy a used M2C for the low-mid 50s when you can buy a brand new one for the high 50s (that's exactly what I did).

You seem to have mistaken my post as an argument that the used values of the M2C right now is sane. I never said it was . You can argue (and we can agree) that it's absurd how a used M2C is valued in the low to mid 50s right now. I agree it's absurd. But that's what the market is asking for right now and given how few M2Cs are on the used market, that's the asking price. Doesn't mean that's the proper VALUE, but that is the price you'll have to pay to get into a used M2C right now. And thus, for the moment it's the price you can expect to sell a used M2C for RIGHT NOW.