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      09-17-2020, 10:12 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by F82PRETEND View Post
Precisely why that's the color I've ordered. I saw just one driving around where I am in Southern California for a couple months earlier this year and then it just disappeared. LBB, HS, BSM and AW are somewhat common sightings, though nowhere near the M3/4 sightings.
MB will definately be a rare sighting in the M2 world. I suspect only half in the US (233) will be MB. HS (116) BSM (70) AW (47)

AW with CCB is going to be a super rare combination. Add in the factory gold wheels and I bet there are less than 10 in that spec. Will be interesting to see how the numbers unfold.

I'd be surprised if the CCB take rate is higher than 25% ~ (116) cars.

Putting things into perspective there are going to be very few options in all the colors, wheel, and brake combinations. If there were a further 50/50 split of gold/black wheels then your likelihood of running into another car in your spec is very slim.
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      09-17-2020, 10:19 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by medphysdave View Post
MB will definately be a rare sighting in the M2 world. I suspect only half in the US (233) will be MB. HS (116) BSM (70) AW (47)

AW with CCB is going to be a super rare combination. Add in the factory gold wheels and I bet there are less than 10 in that spec. Will be interesting to see how the numbers unfold.

I'd be surprised if the CCB take rate is higher than 25% ~ (116) cars.

Putting things into perspective there are going to be very few options in all the colors, wheel, and brake combinations. If there were a further 50/50 split of gold/black wheels then your likelihood of running into another car in your spec is very slim.
I think the MB/Gold/Steel/Manual, (my spec) will be the "common" spec among the cars. Which will still be <200.
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      09-17-2020, 10:36 AM   #311
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I just ordered mine (no markup) for week 45 production and I considered the CCBs but, at $8,500, it just didn't seem worth it. Having said that, if I had really wanted the gold wheels, it would be tempting just for the reduction or elimination of dust. It's not as obvious with black wheels.
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      09-17-2020, 12:27 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by jlee View Post

There are so many unspoken for allocations out there. There will be be inventory when they are delivered and inevitably discounts. Anyone buying at msrp now is really just paying for the privilege of “day one” cars.
This...

Not trying to burst any bubbles but I would caution those talking about these in collectability/investment terms that there are a ton of MSRP allocations available. A ton. That says something about the near term trajectory of these cars. They will be at dealers and sell at a discount in the near term. The fact that I could get half a dozen MSRP allocations today without really trying speaks volumes!

For those trying to minimize depreciation though the purchase price matters just as much as sale price at exit. I would wait. There will be dealers sitting on these in Jan/Feb/March willing to sell for a meaningful discount. Remember that there was hype around the M3/4 CS at first too. People ended up leasing 102k M3 CS’ for Basically 20% off at 700/month. Not saying these will do that poorly but don’t get swept up in the hype when the signs are pointing to this not being as in demand as bimmerpost would make it seem.
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      09-17-2020, 12:38 PM   #313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John4C View Post
This...

Not trying to burst any bubbles but I would caution those talking about these in collectability/investment terms that there are a ton of MSRP allocations available. A ton. That says something about the near term trajectory of these cars. They will be at dealers and sell at a discount in the near term. The fact that I could get half a dozen MSRP allocations today without really trying speaks volumes!

For those trying to minimize depreciation though the purchase price matters just as much as sale price at exit. I would wait. There will be dealers sitting on these in Jan/Feb/March willing to sell for a meaningful discount. Remember that there was hype around the M3/4 CS at first too. People ended up leasing 102k M3 CS’ for Basically 20% off at 700/month. Not saying these will do that poorly but don’t get swept up in the hype when the signs are pointing to this not being as in demand as bimmerpost would make it seem.
I hope this isn't the case, but you may be right. Agree that I jumped in early because of the fit this car is for me and didn't want to risk not getting one. Being an early adopter is usually not the best move when a good deal is the top priority.
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      09-17-2020, 12:45 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by John4C View Post
This...
Based on what though. Just because someone says it doesn't make it true. Doesn't make it not true. I'm genuinely curious how many allocations are claimed/unclaimed. To me right now people just claiming things from one side or the other is just random internet posturing either way.

The rest of your points though are just sound advice. Trying to time any car for market is like timing the stock market - a very very bad idea.
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      09-17-2020, 12:47 PM   #315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John4C View Post
This...

Not trying to burst any bubbles but I would caution those talking about these in collectability/investment terms that there are a ton of MSRP allocations available. A ton. That says something about the near term trajectory of these cars. They will be at dealers and sell at a discount in the near term. The fact that I could get half a dozen MSRP allocations today without really trying speaks volumes!

For those trying to minimize depreciation though the purchase price matters just as much as sale price at exit. I would wait. There will be dealers sitting on these in Jan/Feb/March willing to sell for a meaningful discount. Remember that there was hype around the M3/4 CS at first too. People ended up leasing 102k M3 CS’ for Basically 20% off at 700/month. Not saying these will do that poorly but don’t get swept up in the hype when the signs are pointing to this not being as in demand as bimmerpost would make it seem.
I think there's a lot of residual memory of both the 1M and the initial OG M2 launches lingering around. I can't remember exactly, but wasn't a fully loaded and soaking wet 2016 M2 like $55k? People were paying $5-20k over and the used ones, at least for a couple years, held really well. Then production ramped up and the M2C came along. The M2 CS is cool, but it's not going to blow the automotive world's socks off like the M2 did and it's certainly not a back corner of the M warehouse skunkworks project like the 1M was.
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      09-17-2020, 01:03 PM   #316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F82PRETEND View Post
I think there's a lot of residual memory of both the 1M and the initial OG M2 launches lingering around. I can't remember exactly, but wasn't a fully loaded and soaking wet 2016 M2 like $55k? People were paying $5-20k over and the used ones, at least for a couple years, held really well. Then production ramped up and the M2C came along. The M2 CS is cool, but it's not going to blow the automotive world's socks off like the M2 did and it's certainly not a back corner of the M warehouse skunkworks project like the 1M was.
I think people are forgetting just how few 400 cars are though too.
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      09-17-2020, 01:25 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by sdhotwn View Post
I think people are forgetting just how few 400 cars are though too.
I agree with you for the long term...especially for the 6MT cars. But how many of those will truly survive without abuse, destruction or mileage? I guess that's a bit self-fulfilling.
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      09-17-2020, 01:28 PM   #318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdhotwn View Post
I think people are forgetting just how few 400 cars are though too.
It's a staggeringly small amount when compared to the production run of an average car. Take a look at the x3/x5 numbers. Even other M numbers are fairly large in comparison.

466 cars produced over 3mo, during one model year for 331 million people. The global amount of 2200 cars is a lot, but that number is meaningless if you can't get your hands on them to own.

This is not to say that it's collectable as there is a much smaller percentage of the population interested in this car. BUT it is a special car no matter how you want to slice it.
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      09-17-2020, 01:32 PM   #319
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my $.02. I few more actual owner driving reviews would help those ' on the fence' to decide. Also 466 cars is not a lot. There may be a few out there in Jan / Feb but all will be gone by March
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      09-17-2020, 01:58 PM   #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F82PRETEND View Post
I agree with you for the long term...especially for the 6MT cars. But how many of those will truly survive without abuse, destruction or mileage? I guess that's a bit self-fulfilling.
Right, a few years on it'll be less than 400 left.

Now, rare doesn't mean desirable or valuable though. So it doesn't guarantee or in any way predict what the value of the car will actually be. No way at this point to have any confidence in 5 years if this car is worth 30k, 50k , 80k, or 100k. I'm pretty confident it'll be worth slightly more than an M2C. Now that slightly more being 2K or 10K, or more. Dunno. Just fractionally more at a minimum. Just confident it'll never be worth less than an M2C.
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      09-17-2020, 02:56 PM   #321
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Forgetting about long term residual value for a moment, why wouldn't the limited availability, and consequent difficulty of obtaining a CS, mirror the experience we had with the introduction of the 1M? As I recall there were only about 740 cars imported to the US vs 466 M2 CS's. There were lists at many if not most dealerships and I think most people were happy to buy one at MSRP.
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      09-17-2020, 03:05 PM   #322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnVa1M View Post
Forgetting about long term residual value for a moment, why wouldn't the limited availability, and consequent difficulty of obtaining a CS, mirror the experience we had with the introduction of the 1M? As I recall there were only about 740 cars imported to the US vs 466 M2 CS's. There were lists at many if not most dealerships and I think most people were happy to buy one at MSRP.
People like to shit on shit they can't have. The CS will do fine. It will depreciate, but slower than most. That doesn't mean it will slow an initial hit, but that the floor for loss is higher.
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      09-17-2020, 03:07 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by JohnVa1M View Post
Forgetting about long term residual value for a moment, why wouldn't the limited availability, and consequent difficulty of obtaining a CS, mirror the experience we had with the introduction of the 1M? As I recall there were only about 740 cars imported to the US vs 466 M2 CS's. There were lists at many if not most dealerships and I think most people were happy to buy one at MSRP.
The view of some on here is that the CS isn't very special or different compared to the M2C, and is overpriced. Thus nobody will want it unlike the 1M.

Otherwise, what Dave said.
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      09-17-2020, 03:49 PM   #324
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Not to beat a dead horse here, but in all of the points against the CS in the "it costs too much over the C" camp none of them seem to consider the cost of depreciation of the two models. At the end of the day the CS will gain back some value here.
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      09-17-2020, 03:59 PM   #325
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Not to beat a dead horse here, but in all of the points against the CS in the "it costs too much over the C" camp none of them seem to consider the cost of depreciation of the two models. At the end of the day the CS will gain back some value here.
I think the theory here is that the car costs 25K more now and when they depreciate out that the CS will be worth, say, 5K more on the used market. Meaning it was 20K wasted/overpriced. Or because it's about 40% more expensive it'll never hold 40% more value in the used market during depreciation.

Again, all crystal ball stuff. Buy what you like. Love it, drive it.
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      09-17-2020, 06:38 PM   #326
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Ugh oh, this just in from my SA:

"Sounds like we can’t lock in a date for SCPD until the EPA issues Certifications."

Thank you for submitting a Performance Center Delivery reservation for CnCMastr. Unfortunately, this production number (123456) is a new model or new model year and we cannot offer a delivery date at this time. EPA and CARB Certifications are issued by the government and must be obtained for every model every year, regardless of any change (or not) in the production of the vehicle. The vehicle will remain at the VDC/VPC until all approvals and all holds have been removed (see example shown below). The vehicle will not ship to The BMW Performance Center or your BMW Retail Center until the holds have been removed.

Please inform your client that we will contact you with a delivery date as soon as all EPA and CARB Certifications have been received by BMWNA and the Engineering Data and Release holds have been removed. Should the client wish to cancel you will need to submit a cancellation form which can be found on CENTERNET.

Also, BMW Manufacturing has informed us that effective immediately, all tours of the manufacturing facility will be suspended, and a tour will not be available on the day of your customer’s delivery.

Thank you for your patience!

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      09-17-2020, 06:51 PM   #327
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My SA had mentioned the factory was closed. Another reason I'm hoping a spring summer delayed PCD visit will be possible.
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      09-17-2020, 07:14 PM   #328
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So we thinking these cars being delivered might be delayed until spring?
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      09-17-2020, 07:42 PM   #329
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So we thinking these cars being delivered might be delayed until spring?
My thought is that all of these will be cleared by the time first deliveries arrive. Looks like it's a paperwork submission item.
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      09-18-2020, 12:36 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by cbmmm3 View Post
my $.02. I few more actual owner driving reviews would help those ' on the fence' to decide. Also 466 cars is not a lot. There may be a few out there in Jan / Feb but all will be gone by March
Caveat, I'm not an an owner, but I could still have an allocation. I was on the fence so I took the opportunity to drive the M2CS at Hockenheimring for a day.

I'm just your average driver, but if I were interested in buying the M2CS because I wanted it to spend most of the time on track, I would buy the M2C, and make the necessary upgrades. The M2CS is eager to rev (feels like an F80 comp from that perspective), but to me it feels like mostly like driving the M2C on track.

Outside of the track, I think it is certainly more special and more rare than the other M2s -- It does look awesome in person, and I would be a buyer if that's mostly what interested me. But for me, from a pure driving experience (which is what I value more), I feel I get 9/10 as much fun driving my current M2 on track. I can't speak to driving around town. Just my .02


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