[champignon]

Left out of this discussion is what is going to happen with the next recession.

There's an RV dealer whose lot is located on the side of the freeway, that I drive by regularly. I remember driving by that lot in ~2011, and seeing hundreds of expensive and huge RVs on that lot, stacked almost like cord wood :-) I was driving by that lot with my business partner a couple of weeks ago, and I commented that "they sure have a lot of RVs on that lot, reminds me a lot of the last recession."

It will be interesting to see the backorder book for M2s disappear over night with the next financial perturbation.

Labor rates have shot through the roof recently where i live, and even with those increases, you can't find workers. Some of this is demographics, and I've heard that our local situation is replicated in many other areas.

This situation makes a lot of businesses either unprofitable or way less profitable than they have been historically, in spite of increased volume. I know this from personal experience. The next little disturbance in the economy is going to result in a LOT of layoffs and "workforce reductions." Businesses will have no choice because at current salaries, they will go out of business quickly if demand slackens, they simply will not be able to afford to pay their workers, and it is going to happen quickly once it starts.

This is to say that the economy right now is like a heavily tightened spring; there is little slack right now but that could change overnight. It won't be pretty, what happens, with the next economic shock.

[Wharf Rat]

I disagree with the notion of pricing the M2 CS so it doesn't undercut M4 sales. I don't think that's a concern for BMW.

These are 2 different cars, appealing to different buyers. I think many M2 buyers feel the M4 is too big. And once you start adding options the price climbs in the $80s.

I can go to any of the local BMW dealers & buy an M4 today. I can even get under MSRP without effort, factory incentives too. They always have them on the lots.
That's never been the case with the M2. Not only do you have to order an M2, but you have to wait until they can allow you to order one (aka allocation).
I can walk in & order an M4 Individual today.

For those hoping the M2 CS comes with just a slight price increase over the current iteration, I say good luck. I hope it works out for you.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by mrcheezle19

People talk like the M2 CS will be available in mass quantities. Once it's released and the mark-up game starts all over again demand for the standard M2 will be just as strong, since potential CS buyers decide the OG M2 will satisfy them.

I agree! Not sure why so many are thinking they will get a CS or whatever limited edition M2 will come out? Of course I would love to get my hands on one as well, but I already know that if it is limited, then the dealers will mark it up and even if the list price is only marginally more, that puts that car in to the +$70k range. Sorry, but at that point how many can, or are willing to spend that much?

Originally Posted by champignon

Left out of this discussion is what is going to happen with the next recession.

There's an RV dealer whose lot is located on the side of the freeway, that I drive by regularly. I remember driving by that lot in ~2011, and seeing hundreds of expensive and huge RVs on that lot, stacked almost like cord wood :-) I was driving by that lot with my business partner a couple of weeks ago, and I commented that "they sure have a lot of RVs on that lot, reminds me a lot of the last recession."

It will be interesting to see the backorder book for M2s disappear over night with the next financial perturbation.

Labor rates have shot through the roof recently where i live, and even with those increases, you can't find workers. Some of this is demographics, and I've heard that our local situation is replicated in many other areas.

This situation makes a lot of businesses either unprofitable or way less profitable than they have been historically, in spite of increased volume. I know this from personal experience. The next little disturbance in the economy is going to result in a LOT of layoffs and "workforce reductions." Businesses will have no choice because at current salaries, they will go out of business quickly if demand slackens, they simply will not be able to afford to pay their workers, and it is going to happen quickly once it starts.

This is to say that the economy right now is like a heavily tightened spring; there is little slack right now but that could change overnight. It won't be pretty, what happens, with the next economic shock.

I am wondering the same thing. Although the economy seems to be going better than in a long time, we are also due for a market correction or recession. It's cycles and sooner or later it needs to happen.
Also, all the QE that the fed did the last 8 years, is starting to show it's ugly head. I guess it already has done so in the high end car market, classic cars and other tangibles. Prices are out of control and when they go up that much that fast, it is usually a sign that the bottom will fall out.....again cycles.

Maybe best to wait on the sideline with cash and then pick up a used 991 GT3 for $70k instead

[JPizzz]

I got offered a big discount today: $3500 off msrp on a LBB 18’ and I’m not usaa or grad. The dealer mentioned a $1000 “conquest cash” incentive of some sort. Anyway, struggling between taking this deal or waiting for LCI like many others here.

[stefan]

Originally Posted by JPizzz

I got offered a big discount today: $3500 off msrp on a LBB 18’ and I’m not usaa or grad. The dealer mentioned a $1000 “conquest cash” incentive of some sort. Anyway, struggling between taking this deal or waiting for LCI like many others here.

The hell.. is the S55 really worth that much to you? Let's conservatively say the competition will be only $8K over the base (I actually suspect higher). Dealer markups could be $5K right off the bat. So right away before you've even got behind the wheel, after your $4500 discount, the price difference between the competition and the model you can drive *right now* is $17,500 nevermind financing incentives.

That just seems bonkers to me plus you've got a years' wait ahead of you. Why bother?

[ZPrime]

Originally Posted by Blurbo311

I agree with the BRZ effect, most people who want one and can afford one already have one. And I'm sure there are a handful of people holding out for the CS or whatever it will be called. The demand is no longer significantly more than the supply. Same with GT350.

With that said, used M2s are still holding their value well, very few used M2s have been listed below $50k. I'm sure a few have sold for less than $50k, but asking prices for the most part have stayed north of $50k.

Porsche dealership by me had a used 2016 with about 13k miles on it... but also had a crapton of Dinan stuff, supposedly a "stage 2" setup. Friend of mine works there and just sold it for around $49,500.

[ZPrime]

Originally Posted by norMcal

It was yesterday when I noticed that there was a new 2018 in the mix for MSRP, when it hit me that the supply must have caught up with demand. I mean the 2018's just came out last month and it is surprising that they would be sitting on the lot.

2018s have been "out" since July of 2017.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by stefan

The hell.. is the S55 really worth that much to you? Let's conservatively say the competition will be only $8K over the base (I actually suspect higher). Dealer markups could be $5K right off the bat. So right away before you've even got behind the wheel, after your $4500 discount, the price difference between the competition and the model you can drive *right now* is $17,500 nevermind financing incentives.

That just seems bonkers to me plus you've got a years' wait ahead of you. Why bother?

The smarter move is probably to wait a year or two and to buy a lightly used N55 M2 at whatever they will sell for at that time.

Normally, BMWs, even M-cars, depreciate a LOT and quickly. I have been the beneficiary of that with two of the cars I presently own. My 135is convertible, one of around 40 produced with a MT, was sold to me by Carmax at the 2 year point, for 40% off of the MSRP. It had less than 6500 miles on it and was for all intents and purposes a brand new car.

I am sure it has, and will continue to depreciate further, but at least the biggest bite in the ass was taken by someone other than me.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by mrcheezle19

People talk like the M2 CS will be available in mass quantities. Once it's released and the mark-up game starts all over again demand for the standard M2 will be just as strong, since potential CS buyers decide the OG M2 will satisfy them.

True story

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by champignon

The smarter move is probably to wait a year or two and to buy a lightly used N55 M2 at whatever they will sell for at that time.

Normally, BMWs, even M-cars, depreciate a LOT and quickly. I have been the beneficiary of that with two of the cars I presently own. My 135is convertible, one of around 40 produced with a MT, was sold to me by Carmax at the 2 year point, for 40% off of the MSRP. It had less than 6500 miles on it and was for all intents and purposes a brand new car.

I am sure it has, and will continue to depreciate further, but at least the biggest bite in the ass was taken by someone other than me.

This is actually not correct.

The more affordable M cars hold their value well. M3 of all generations , Z3M, Z4 M, 1M , and thus far M2. Has the bottom fallen out of E9x M3 pricing ? I haven't looked in a while but they held steady for quite awhile in the $35-40 K range with original msrp of 65-70k.

the more expensive models....5,6,7 and X SAV models of course have tons of depreciation.

BMW Convertibles, particularly M car convertibles start off around 6-8k higher than the hardtops and depreciate quickly to values around 2k below the hardtop models.

With the E36 M3 and E46 M3, add an automatic box and it would lose another 1-2k in value. I haven't really looked at at E9X M verts plus the metal roof is a different animal.

BMW convertibles however make excellent purchases as 7-10 year old vehicles when lightly used - ask me how I know! - I've had three different E46 convertibles (including an M) in my garage over the years.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

This is actually not correct.

The more affordable M cars hold their value well. M3 of all generations , Z3 and Z4 M, 1M , and thus far M2. Has the bottom fallen out of E9x M3 pricing ? I haven't looked in a while but they held steady for quite awhile in the $35-40 K range with original msrp of 65-70k.

5,6,7 and X5 of course have tons of depreciation.

BMW Convertibles, particularly M car convertibles start off much higher than the hardtops and depreciate quickly to values below the hardtop models. They make excellent purchases as 7-10 year old vehicles when lightly used - ask me how I know!

I think you have to define what you mean by M-Cars holding "their value well."

Even my 2000 Z3M coupe, in outstanding condition, with around 60K miles (not a lot for an 18 year old car) had an original MSRP of $42,870 when it was sold in late 1999. A very optimistic estimate of what it might sell for today would be $30K, probably more like $27K. And I've put several thousand into it over the last 2.5 years, during which it has accumulated maybe 2500 miles.

According to Dr. Google, a 1999 US Dollar is worth around $1.47 today. So, in 2017 dollars the car cost $63K, and is now worth well less than 50% of that. And this is for one of the "poster children" for rare BMW M cars, in that around 3000 were sold in N. America, and certainly many less remain in "collectible condition" after 18 years.

Further, most of the depreciation of an M-Car, or any BMW, is going to happen quickly. No one in their right mind wants someone else's used car, even if only a couple of years old, when they can buy a brand new one for about the same price.

I don't mind buying someone else's used car, but I want a deal on it, otherwise I would just buy new, and so would most other people. The only way that this would not be a factor would be if you couldn't find a new one to buy. But the evidence strongly points to the idea that this is not going to be a huge factor going forward, especially for the current N55 version.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by champignon

I think you have to define what you mean by M-Cars holding "their value well."

Even my 2000 Z3M coupe, in outstanding condition, with around 60K miles (not a lot for an 18 year old car) had an original MSRP of $42,870 when it was sold in late 1999. A very optimistic estimate of what it might sell for today would be $30K, probably more like $27K. And I've put several thousand into it over the last 2.5 years, during which it has accumulated maybe 2500 miles.

According to Dr. Google, a 1999 US Dollar is worth around $1.47 today. So, in 2017 dollars the car cost $63K, and is now worth well less than 50% of that. And this is for one of the "poster children" for rare BMW M cars, in that around 3000 were sold in N. America, and certainly many less remain in "collectible condition" after 18 years.

Further, most of the depreciation of an M-Car, or any BMW, is going to happen quickly. No one in their right mind wants someone else's used car, even if only a couple of years old, when they can buy a brand new one for about the same price.

I don't mind buying someone else's used car, but I want a deal on it, otherwise I would just buy new, and so would most other people. The only way that this would not be a factor would be if you couldn't find a new one to buy. But the evidence strongly points to the idea that this is not going to be a huge factor going forward, especially for the current N55 version.

I just checked and found a 59k mile 2011 M3 near my home for $34,500.

That car had a base price of 54-57k and probably with options was 67-70.

It's almost 2018.. so at nearly 7 years that's 50 percent depreciation. I'll take that all day long for a depreciating asset like a car. You can't do much better with a Honda or a Lexus I would imagine. And a BMW is a helluva lot more fun.

I would say that The 01-02 Z3M , the E36 M3 LTW , E46 M3 CSL, the E30 M3 , the 1M are the "poster children " for BMW car values. The early Z3M, Z8, Z4M are certainly in the mix and are special cars but are next level down ..

[champignon]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I just checked and found a 59k mile 2011 M3 near my home for $34,500.

That car had a base price of 54-57k and probably with options was 67-70.

It's almost 2018.. so at nearly 7 years that's 50 percent depreciation. I'll take that all day long for a depreciating asset like a car. You can't do much better with a Honda or a Lexus I would imagine. And a BMW is a helluva lot more fun.

I would say that The 01-02 Z3M , the E36 M3 LTW , E46 M3 CSL, the E30 M3 , the 1M are the "poster children " for BMW car values. The early Z3M, Z8, Z4M are certainly in the mix and are special cars but are next level down ..

Of course we are mostly talking semantics. If a garden variety 3-Series car is worth next to nothing after 5 years, then of course the M3 looks good. And, no one in their right mind (except perhaps for some car forum participants) thinks that any car is a good "investment."

My guess is that the M2, which has until now been spared massive depreciation, will soon descend in value like most any other car, perhaps a bit slower than most, but the descent will be painful for those not expecting it.

Added to this is the fact that a car like an M2 is very likely going to be a 2nd car or a summer-only car or a weekend car for a lot of owners. As a result, there will be a relatively large proportion of them that hit the resale market with fairly low mileage, for age.

So even if the M2 depreciates fairly slowly, if you can pick one up that originally sold for $53-$55K, in 2 years, with, say, 8,000 or 10,000 miles on them, for $40K, what's not to like? If the next 5 years results in a 7 year old car worth $27K, who came out better, the 1st owner or the 2nd?

In spite of all of this, if the right car and the right deal came along, I'd probably trade my 135i coupe in on it and take the new car depreciation hit. But on a strictly financial basis, I'd rather be the 2nd owner than the 1st one.

[Bluenose-2er]

Originally Posted by champignon

My guess is that the M2, which has until now been spared massive depreciation, will soon descend in value like most any other car, perhaps a bit slower than most, but the descent will be painful for those not expecting it.
....
In spite of all of this, if the right car and the right deal came along, I'd probably trade my 135i coupe in on it and take the new car depreciation hit. But on a strictly financial basis, I'd rather be the 2nd owner than the 1st one.

Totally agree. It will depreciate... it is not a collectible like the 1M... so those that think the early days of zero depreciation will continue are in for a disappointment. But it will be slower than most cars.

I am typically a 2 year old buyer of most of my cars... avoiding that initial depreciation hit... but I really wanted an M2 and did not want to wait a few years, and on a car like this, you never know how it has been driven when buying used. Super happy I took the plunge!

All that being said, if they totally replace the base M2 with the M2 Comp... and it is $10K higher in MSRP... that will buoy the pricing of the base M2 on the used market. Those that are thinking BMW will not want to abandon the entry owner just have to look at the M240i for the solution.

[JPizzz]

Originally Posted by stefan

The hell.. is the S55 really worth that much to you? Let's conservatively say the competition will be only $8K over the base (I actually suspect higher). Dealer markups could be $5K right off the bat. So right away before you've even got behind the wheel, after your $4500 discount, the price difference between the competition and the model you can drive *right now* is $17,500 nevermind financing incentives.

That just seems bonkers to me plus you've got a years' wait ahead of you. Why bother?

$3500 total discount. Sorry that wasn’t clear. I get what your saying. For me it’s not just the s55, which would be a “proper” m engine, it’s also having the sportier seats and potentially interior. If there is mark up, then yes I don’t think it’s worth it.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by JPizzz

$3500 total discount. Sorry that wasnt clear. I get what your saying. For me it's not just the s55, which would be a Proper ” m engine, it's also having the sportier seats and potentially interior. If there is mark up, then yes I don‚t think its worth it.

I'm with stefan. I do hope you make the correct choice for yourself in the end. Since you have indicated that you feel the S55 is a "proper M engine ", you definitely are the type that will pay $17,500- oops a bargain at $16,500- more for " sportier seats and interior choices" !

[JPizzz]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I'm with stefan. I do hope you make the correct choice for yourself in the end. Since you have indicated that you feel the S55 is a "proper M engine ", you definitely are the type that will pay $17,500- oops a bargain at $16,500- more for " sportier seats and interior choices" !

Lol. I knew that was gonna bite me in the A$$. What I meant is that it’s an engine built specifically for the “m” division, did not mean to imply the m2 isn’t a proper “m” car.

Also my discount isn’t off “base” it’s off a msrp if 61890, which wouldn’t be too far from a m2 CS price perhaps (who knows for sure though)

[bobert]

Another solution to concerns about depreciation is to simply not give a sh_t about depreciation.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by bobert

Another solution to concerns about depreciation is to simply not give a sh_t about depreciation.

I would give a shit about it, however I think you need to keep it in the context of your financial situation. It's like staying in a horrible motel to avoid paying $120/night at a Hampton Inn or similar hotel. At some point, if you attain any degree of financial success, the cost becomes trivial and the expense is worth it.

[stefan]

Originally Posted by JPizzz

Lol. I knew that was gonna bite me in the A$$. What I meant is that it’s an engine built specifically for the “m” division, did not mean to imply the m2 isn’t a proper “m” car.

Also my discount isn’t off “base” it’s off a msrp if 61890, which wouldn’t be too far from a m2 CS price perhaps (who knows for sure though)

I mean it is and isn't. Here's the thing. Are you sure you like the S55? it's not for everyone. I thought for sure I'd walk out of the dealership with an M3 but the S55 is not a motor I find appealing. While the N55 is less special there is definitely some M magic going on there such that I get feelings of older M cars when driving it.

So then you're down to interiors. For me I cannot stand how the f3x and X SUVs have that stupid high gloss material everywhere that scratches if you look at it too hard. I'm not sure why this equates to a better interior. More shiny stuff ?

The seats look a hell of a lot cooler but feel pretty much the same to me. Better off going with a sportster CS or other aftermarket seat.

[//M]

Originally Posted by JPizzz

$3500 total discount. Sorry that wasn’t clear. I get what your saying. For me it’s not just the s55, which would be a “proper” m engine, it’s also having the sportier seats and potentially interior. If there is mark up, then yes I don’t think it’s worth it.

Looking pretty unlikely were getting a different interior. Considering they're already making the Press campaign and they've already built the Press cars.

[hellrotm]

Stop calling it a CS. It is giving a false impression of the car that is coming.

Look at the Vin’s. The Competition is the same M2 available now, but with a detuned S55. Yes there are new wheels, seats, brakes, perforated leather, etc...but everything is an option.

Essentially you can spec the car just like it is now, down to the standard 437M wheels and cheaper Dakota leather. So if you want a M2 like the ones currently sitting on AutoTrader, but with a detuned S55...it will be available. BMW will just be giving customers new options and it is up to the customer on whether they value them. At most the msrp will go up $5k. The M2 will remain the entry level M car, the new Competiton still has cost cutting like the N55 M2.