02-26-2019, 11:36 PM | #1 |
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Used M2 Pricing Forecast
I am entertaining an OG M2 six speed as my next mode of transportation. Am I overly optimistic to expect a few 2016s to dip into the mid-30k range by July/August of this year? If so, what kind of mileage would you expect them to have?
I'm curious to see how M2C popularity and the lease return cycle will affect the used market this summer. I know they didn't lease well and a lot of people are skeptical of how many will return to dealers in 2019, but IIRC something like 60% of new BMWs are leased. While the M2 may fall a bit short of that expectation, I don't imagine it being a total outlier. I've been cross-shopping the M235i, M240i and M2, but worry I would be disappointed with anything short of an M. I sold my beloved M Roadster about 3 years ago and part of me would rather find my way into an E90 M3 than take a step backwards. |
02-27-2019, 11:34 AM | #2 |
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I don't see mid 30's by summer, maybe high 30's unless it's a 40-70k mile car or something. Most the 2016's with reasonable miles are around low 40's right now which is about a 15-17k hit and the depreciation rate will slow down a bit from here on out. Low miles 2017's are still mid 40's.
I don't think very many people leased M2's, so there won't be that many on lease turn in's. |
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02-27-2019, 11:59 AM | #3 | |
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That said, I think the economy and the stock market are very disconnected - you'd think from watching CNBC that everything is great but I don't think that's the case. Too many people are over-leveraged, buried in debt and car payments they wish they could unload. If you're patient and a smart Internet shopper you'll find a good deal. I just see too many people playing "keep up with the Joneses", and anyone with cash in the bank is going to have plenty of good opportunities to take advantage when those people get desperate to sell. I like your E90 M3 idea...if I weren't mechanically clueless and paranoid about spun bearings, I'd love to spend a year or two with an E93 M3 just to cross it off the bucket list. |
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02-27-2019, 04:33 PM | #4 |
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i'm waiting as well...the depreciation will be slow until the first big batch of 2016/2017s come off lease. Most people didn't start actually getting the 2016s until april so you probably won't see any big price drops until may/june.
right now there hovering around low 40s due to low supply. msrp in 2016 i think was around 58k with a residuel of 48% = $27840 with dealer make up and CPO cost added , i can see a $35k CPO price. You saw something similar to the m4 where they were mostly in the low to mid 50s until the first big batch of lease returns came and they quickly dropped to mid to low 40s, non CPO or high mileage dipping into high 30s. I would say wait until june/july and see how the market is. The current market is all about SUV/CUVs, so its going to be a buyers market for used 2dr coupes. Low mileage CPO 718 caymans are finally hitting around the 49-51k, so thats tempting too if the price of the M2 doesnt move much. |
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02-27-2019, 07:29 PM | #5 |
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02-27-2019, 09:08 PM | #6 | |
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03-26-2019, 06:52 AM | #8 |
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I'm sure that'll buff right out..
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03-26-2019, 10:35 AM | #9 |
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Man I've seen videos of people "repairing" twisted piles of metal like this... Some old Russian dude in his garage yanking the frame with a chain auctioned by King Kong handlers. After a nice paint job it looks like brand new and not a death trap it actually is.
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03-26-2019, 03:39 PM | #11 |
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I don't think the M2C had that big of an affect on the used car market, where it hit was the 2018's left on the lot and people getting out of their orders. I would say almost 0 lease returns. For those who did lease, it would make no sense to turn in a car that has a buyout of ~30k when you could turn it into carmax for well above that.
The OG M2 production while not limited, was fairly small. Compared the E9x platform, they produced about 1/3. Comparing directly to the E92, about 1/2. While its easier to find what you want because of only one package, one interior color, and 4 exterior, I don't see the affecting it too much. Sub 30k miles I think will stay in ~40k range for the next couple of years. I would look at the E9x pricing as a forecast.
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03-26-2019, 04:01 PM | #12 | |
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03-26-2019, 05:53 PM | #13 |
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I'm pretty sure the lease take on M2s was nowhere near 60%. They just had terrible lease values compared to everything else on the market.
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03-26-2019, 08:07 PM | #14 |
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I think another factor in the M2 holding its value is because of the current M3/M4. From what I've seen, people were not as happy with the F8x platform compared to the E9x, myself included. I believe that the M3 outsold the M4 and as a whole produced a lot more than the E9x. Once the next generation M3/M4 is released, the F8x will take a huge hit. Take a look at current M4 prices, 50k miles and there going for mid 35k. An equivalent e92 goes for lowish 30s.
An enthusiast looking for a used coupe, rear wheel drive car will gravitate towards the M2, not the M3/M4. While I love the E92, it's getting a bit old for a daily driver and the reliability is not great.
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03-27-2019, 08:08 AM | #15 | |
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03-27-2019, 09:59 AM | #16 |
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if you look at some of the car fax histories on the used M2s from the dealerships there have been a few where the 1st owner owned the car for 2yrs 9months, 2yrs 10months makes sense it can be a lease, since BMW will do a pull ahead on your lease within 2-3 months of your lease if you lease another BMW.
But not one knows the M2 lease take rate except BMW. |
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07-11-2019, 10:57 AM | #17 |
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so it looks like there few 2016s sub $40k now. But seems to be around 36-39k miles which isnt a lot considering thats the mileage 3yr old car should be..but after seeing of bunch of 10-15k cars...i got use to that mileage lol.
the dealership was originally selling a 2017 BMW M2 6spd with executive package with 3700 miles on it for $50k. They lower the price to $47k. I was able to negotiate the car down to $43k. I figure i would've negotiated the 2016s down to 36k but given the upgrades on the 2017 and the super low mileage...i opted for the 2017. I plan on keeping the car for a long time..this will probably be BMW last analogish M cars. I love the 6spd and i'm happy with the price i paid given how low the mileage was. The previous owner already installed ceramic tint and it came with clear bra. |
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08-07-2019, 09:53 PM | #20 | |
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Even searching nationwide on autotrader today, I only see four cars under 40 and they are all 39+. |
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08-08-2019, 03:07 PM | #21 |
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you can probably negotiate the $39k ones down to $35k. i negotiated my 2017 m2 with 3700 miles on 6spd from $47k down to $43k. best value seems to be the 2017s 18k miles for around $43-46k.
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08-08-2019, 03:10 PM | #22 |
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