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Yes, customer service goes a long way but in the BMW service food chain, even if you're cool with your service advisor, the service manger has the final say on coverage.
Warranty reimbursement can be tricky for the dealer when it's not a clear-cut defect, so if they replace it, at their discretion, there's a chance BMW AG might decide it wasn't warranted, then charge back any reimbursement credit. So dealers err on the side of safety and outright deny claim that are ambiguous in nature.
If they do cover it, is would either be a goodwill gesture or their way of accepting negligence. But like was mentioned before, it's 50/50 chance they sway either way. Good luck.
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