View Single Post
      02-07-2020, 04:38 AM   #11
Salty Dog
Captain
Salty Dog's Avatar
3525
Rep
886
Posts

Drives: Austin Mini,MBGLK, Porsche 993
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nye2018sd View Post
There has been and continues to be much confusion on autonomous driving technology. For reference, the NHTSA defines autonomous driving technology in five levels.

Level 5 means the vehicle is 100% able to travel from and to any destination or destinations, under all kinds of weather, under all kinds of traffic conditions, and in all situations WITHOUT the need of any input from the driver or occupant. Level 4 is able to do the same in MOST weather conditions, traffic conditions, and most situations, but not all.

For reference, we are at level 2 autonomous driving where the driver must remain alert, engaged and is responsible at all times, no exception. In level 2, a vehicle is able to stay in its lane, at a determined speed, change lanes, keep safe distance from vehicle ahead, and exit highway ramps without the need for input from the driver for a very SHORT and LIMITED amount of time.

We are very much far away from reaching level 4 or level 5 anytime soon. The challenges are much more complex, expensive, and bewildering than most people think to say the least. The technology is simply not here yet, never mind being ready and tested. This also does not include other factors such as red tape, infrastructure, insurance, changing current laws and motor vehicle regulations.

A good timeline estimation is that we won't see vehicles with Level 4 autonomy before the mid to late 2020's, and we won't reach Level 5 autonomy before 2030 or even the mid 2030's.

So for now, let us enjoy the concept of driving.
Well said. I think this is similar to EV's in that it is going to take time for the technology and acceptance to reach any kind of market saturation. Some folks out there, not just on this forum, seem to think we are going to wake up one day in the very near future and be living in an episode of the Jetsons. These changes are coming, I don't doubt that but I think you may be a bit conservative on your timeline.