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The answer for an extended warranty really should always be no. Look guys this is where the dealers make a lot of profit, they make profit because the odds are very slim that warranty will ever pay off. Of course every time somebody "wins" the extended warranty lottery and gets and expensive repair fixed they tell everyone and the easter bunny but the vast majority will never see the benefit. Take that $4,500 and put it in the bank or put it to work and chances are very likely that it will still be there in 6 years.
I was nervous in buying my E90 3 series and considered the warranty and passed, I drove that car 170,000 miles before it had any problems, well beyond what any warranty would ever cover. I drove the car 225,000 before I sold it and got my M2 which I have driven 37,000 miles and 22 track days without a single glitch.
Keep your money, sure there is a risk but its small. Also as the original owner if you have a failure after warranty chances are very high that BMW will do a goodwill deal to make you happy. Just have to make a phone call.
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