I'm pleased to say I finally locked in this weekend!
3000 off MSRP which comes down to 5% off is pretty good given the invoice is only 6.1% off, and I get the exact build I want with a new allocation. Also 35k locked in for my trade-in that I can keep driving until the new car is available for delivery. That flexibility is worth the money I'd make on the private market since it's my daily driver and I don't have to deal with lining up the timings of both transactions in 2.5 months.
Overall I'm happy - excited about the M2C upgrade before the car goes out of production later this year in anticipation of the new platform which will likely be quite a bit later, more expensive, and I'm not convinced about the look if it's like the new M4 !
Many thanks to everyone who helped me out with insights - your advice helped me get the confidence of what a fair deal looked like