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Originally Posted by cptobvious

Gentlemen,

Can I suggest something perhaps a bit heretical? The prices you are seeing for used M2C have nothing to do with fundamentals - meaning, end-of-production, S55, fear of G87 suck-i-tude, etc., etc. While it would be wonderful to believe that somehow our beloved M2C's have defied the iron law / slope of performance car depreciation curves, I don't believe it is so.

Instead, COVID has severely impacted the available supply of durable goods. If you go back to high school economics, the supply shock from COVID has resulted in the aggregate supply curve shifting to the left. The Fed, meanwhile, has done a relatively respectable job of maintaining aggregate demand - so in your graph, hold the downward sloping aggregate demand curve constant. If you do this, you will see on the y-axis that price simply shifts up. That is what has happened here.

Other highly visible durable goods prices haven't risen, because these are fixed prices. For example, Home Depot is not going to charge you more for that fridge or dish washer. Prices in retail durable goods are largely fixed by the big box retailers. So, even though demand has remained fixed, and supply has contracted, price hasn't risen - instead, there are shortages. When prices are fixed in the face of supply constraints, shortages arise. Again, we could easily see it on a supply / demand graph, but a bit harder to explain via text. So, when my wife and I recently tried to buy new washer/dryer, new fridge, new stove, and new range hood, in some cases we had to wait months, whereas before COVID supply shock, you could have purchased and installed next day.

Car pricing, on the other hand, is highly flexible. We haggle over the price, both used and new. So, the supply shock simply results in higher prices for both used and new cars.

As many others have mentioned, pre-COVID supply shock, many forum members were receiving 10% off MSRP for new M2C.

And, just to hammer the point home, this is not unique to the M2C, nor to BMW, nor to performance cars. My buddy purchased a Hyundai Santa Fe pre-COVID. Once the supply shock hit, dealerships started calling him out of the blue as they were running out of cars to sell. He ended up selling the Santa Fe back to the dealership, having driven it several thousand miles, and made a $2k profit on the sale.

Spot on. This is not only a phenomenon seen on M2's. I keep getting letters in the mail from one of the local Toyota dealerships about buying my Tundra. If you thought BMW prices were nuts, go look at truck prices. Pre-COVID, new Tundra Platinum's were going for around $47k (MSRP $54k). Now the new ones are selling for MSRP, and used ones have gone up in value. They offered to pay me what I purchased the truck for 2 years ago, but with 12k more miles. I said no (maybe dumb move haha), but what good does it do me if prices of all trucks are up anyway?

My prediction is that at some point, all the price will have to come down. I love the M2C, but will wait for:
- G87 to come out and jump on LCI if it's great (long term I know)
- F87C to come off warranties
- Covid prices to calm down

This obviously is not for everyone if you're looking into getting a car now, but I'm ok with being patient while things settle down. Plenty of cars to play/work on at home as is.