[CSBM5]

I bought a 2019 M2C new in Sept 2018 when allocations were fought over. MSRP was ~61,600 (LBB, 6MT, Exec pkg), and I accidentally received a 1.8% discount. I responded to a dealer website on a Sunday for a quote, and the reply came back with the discount. Our 3rd allocation spot still looked to be about 4-5 months away, so I bought the car out of state.

That was 2.5 years ago, and yes the car has depreciated very little since then (has 12k miles now). One reason 2019s might be well bid is that people who want to tune the car desire them since they are not locked down (but I'm guessing that's a minor if even measurable aspect of used prices).

We are a few weeks from the end of production of the M2C. I don't see that fact doing anything but perhaps increasing the used market demand in the months ahead.

As an aside: We put down a deposit for an allocation in March 2018 and received the 3rd spot. When our dealer on got one in the first round, it appeared it could be as long as 6-8 months before we'd receive our build spot. I looked at a 2017 M3 ZCP 6MT with CPO and about 20k miles our dealer had, and we thought about buying that car for 6-9 months and delaying our allocation to a 2020 M2C. They were asking $58k initially, and as the summer of 2018 passed, it was slowly lowered to $53,900 before it finally sold (for that price or less, dunno). That was 2.5 years ago. Today that same F80 M3 would be priced about the same. The used market for 2017-2018 F80 ZCPs irregularly bottomed over the past 18 months (so far).

In the past month I've seen fresh listings from many dealers of 2018 F80s now in the $60k bracket as common whereas just 2-3 months ago they would come on the market in the upper 50s. The used market for F80/82/87 cars has been on fire recently.

However, at the same time the purchasing power of the dollar is falling rapidly especially in some areas as inflation is soaring (try pricing the quantity of lumber you need to build a 2500 sq ft house...it's up about 4x the median value of the past 10 years and still rising sharply, i.e. adding many multiples of $10k to the cost). Hence if we are about to endure a huge inflationary period that is desired by some in power, everyone will have to adapt to their view of "value" about everything.

Recall back in the late 1970s inflation was huge (dollar purchasing power collapsing) such that from 1975 to 1980 the MSRP for a new E12 5-series (same car essentially with very little changed) more than doubled from about $10k to $20k. Those values sound quaint here in 2021, but $10k had a LOT of purchasing power in 1975 and a heck of a lot less just five years later.