[champignon]

Originally Posted by M2Nebula

Wow, I didn't realize there was this much bandwidth out there in Idaho.

I'd say this is more of a commentary on what people would pay good money to see in Michigan

[matty_f]

Data point. I ordered a car, due in later this week, from a dealer ~130 miles from me. At the time of order the local dealers that has allocations wanted $3k over. I felt lucky to even get an allocation at MSRP. I do think the market is shifting though. The dealer I bought my wife’s 428GC from a few years back had basicslly the same car I ordered. After a little back in forth they agreed to do $2200 off MSRP. I think I could have gotten an additional $500-1000 conquest cash, but they said they had run out of codes. Not sure if this is true. In any case I gave the dealer I ordered from an email and asked if they could match. They said they don’t discount the M2. As $2200 isn’t chump change, I had to go for it. So some dealers are discounting and some aren’t.

One last edit... I would say this thread helped me save a bunch of cash. So thanks!

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by champignon

Hold the presses; he might be smarter than us . . . . here we are wasting our time navel gazing on this forum, while he (or she, the bidder) is in the process of buying a semi-used vehicle.

Of course, what we are doing doesn't cost anything, it's only saving grace, plus time spent here is time not spent buying stuff online in this holiday season, another benefit :-)

Or the seller is bidding it up himself and has not met the reserve?

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by matty_f

Data point. I ordered a car, due in later this week, from a dealer ~130 miles from me. At the time of order the local dealers that has allocations wanted $3k over. I felt lucky to even get an allocation at MSRP. I do think the market is shifting though. The dealer I bought my wife’s 428GC from a few years back had basicslly the same car I ordered. After a little back in forth they agreed to do $2200 off MSRP. I think I could have gotten an additional $500-1000 conquest cash, but they said they had run out of codes. Not sure if this is true. In any case I gave the dealer I ordered from an email and asked if they could match. They said they don’t discount the M2. As $2200 isn’t chump change, I had to go for it. So some dealers are discounting and some aren’t.

One last edit... I would say this thread helped me save a bunch of cash. So thanks!

This is a great example of how fast things have changed. I guess many (including dealers) have not noticed the sudden market saturation. It caught me a bit by surprise as well, which is why I originally started the thread. Glad you were able to save a couple of grand because of it.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

This is a great example of how fast things have changed. I guess many (including dealers) have not noticed the sudden market saturation. It caught me a bit by surprise as well, which is why I originally started the thread. Glad you were able to save a couple of grand because of it.

We car enthusiasts look at this market for M2s as if it is a specific market segment, whereas a dealer has a much broader view of the business he is in (as well he should). That M2 or those M2s sitting on his lot probably represent a minute fraction of the inventory that he is financing at the moment. He (the dealer) may well be thinking about a period not long ago when he could get full MSRP (and then some, in some cases) for an M2, but his focus is going to be elsewhere; like meeting payroll, like managing his tax exposure for the year (we are at year's end almost), like planning for 2018, which fast approaches.

I have an interest in a restaurant business, and you might walk into one particular location and be thinking, "what are these clowns doing with that huge wine list, for this sort of a restaurant?" You'd be right to some extent, and wrong in the sense that our labor cost is oh so much more of an issue than a few thousand dollars worth of unsold wine, that we don't even talk about the wine, it's a non-issue. That M2 that's been sitting on the lot for 2 months might be just the same sort of non-issue for the BMW dealer.

The great thing about being a customer is that we don't have to give a shit about any of this; economic forces in the end will win out. We can just watch from the sidelines and let it happen.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Or the seller is bidding it up himself and has not met the reserve?

I have to agree with you that it makes no sense to bid this much ($55K), plus buyer's premium, to buy this slightly used car. There could also be some "fine print" in the seller's contract with BaT that allows them (BaT) to bid up to just below a reserve price, depending on circumstances. I have seen auctions for other goods that are set up in that way. In a sense, it isn't dishonest if the price is below the reserve and the car wouldn't sell anyway, below that price. On the other hand, it potentially misleads other bidders who might be acting in good faith.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Just checked the BaT listing and the bidding is up to $55k. Pretty foolish IMHO, because with the 5% fee this car will already cost them $57.5k and there are dealers selling for less than that price.

One thing I didn't realize was that this is a 2018 MY. I thought it was a 2017, so $55k is not completely nuts yet, since the car is virtually new, but if it goes any higher, I would seriously question the buyers intellect.

It's nuts. Still have to transport the car. Why not just order a new one from a dealer near you? It's not like you get a sweet tax deal in this used car deal at BaT.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by champignon

I have to agree with you that it makes no sense to bid this much ($55K), plus buyer's premium, to buy this slightly used car. There could also be some "fine print" in the seller's contract with BaT that allows them (BaT) to bid up to just below a reserve price, depending on circumstances. I have seen auctions for other goods that are set up in that way. In a sense, it isn't dishonest if the price is below the reserve and the car wouldn't sell anyway, below that price. On the other hand, it potentially misleads other bidders who might be acting in good faith.

Originally Posted by akkando

It's nuts. Still have to transport the car. Why not just order a new one from a dealer near you? It's not like you get a sweet tax deal in this used car deal at BaT.

I guess we will find out in a few hours. If it doesn't sell, then we can assume the seller had it bid up just under the reserve price.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by Wharf Rat

Do those sites also list cars in dealer inventory? If so, then many of them are likely sold. It's a common practice for dealerships to list new incoming (customer sold) cars as if they are available - it generates interest & may get a prospect to call or visit.
My car is listed in new inventory on dealer's website.

I still think the supply/demand is specific to cities. You'd be hard pressed to find one in the southwest... maybe in SoCal.

You are correct on demand/surplus being specific to cities because BMW doesn't send M2 models to all dealers at the same time.

They send them out regionally. Texas and the SW received the HEA cars first. Then got no more deliveries for awhile as they then shipped cars to other parts of the country.

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by AngryBaby

FWIW Cars.com/Autotrader, etc are well-known to vastly overstate the availability of new M2s since they are apparently auto-added into the dealer online inventory even if pre-sold.

Exactly. Dealers have subscriptions and all the cars are auto listed and most new cars are pre sold. Looking at new listings is largely irrelevant. Used listings are still very limited and don't stay around.
Yes, do a deal on a 2018 for $500 over invoice and post the PO.

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

You are correct on demand/surplus being specific to cities because BMW doesn't send M2 models to all dealers at the same time.

They send them out regionally. Texas and the SW received the HEA cars first. Then got no more deliveries for awhile as they then shipped cars to other parts of the country.

Correct.

Supply has not caught up to demand !

[champignon]

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

Correct.

Supply has not caught up to demand !

There are two elements that make a market; yes, you guessed correctly, they are supply AND demand.

Demand tends to be over-stated by enthusiast forums, as it costs nothing to post about one's interest in buying a car, plus there is the factor of herd mentality.

Supply and demand for this car have always been in balance; the way that the marketplace has managed this is by such things as waiting lists and dealer markups. Those not able to buy an M2 at a price they were willing to pay have simply held on to what they had, or bought something else other than an M2.

Demand for an M2 is infinite at $0 dollars, and very limited at $100,000. If you tell me that I will get less than my trade in is worth (at least to me), and the M2 will cost more than I am willing to pay, I have no further interest in the car, other than shooting the shit on this forum, perhaps.

So, for me, at this instant, I'm not buying one of these things. In 2 months, all may change, and I may be a buyer, or I may not be.

I'm no different than anyone else on that score, and fortunately, I already have a bunch of cars I enjoy driving, so it is no big deal whatever the outcome.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Exactly. Dealers have subscriptions and all the cars are auto listed and most new cars are pre sold. Looking at new listings is largely irrelevant. Used listings are still very limited and don't stay around.
Yes, do a deal on a 2018 for $500 over invoice and post the PO.

Originally Posted by ORIGIN M.

Correct.

Supply has not caught up to demand !

OK, so I looked up the new M2's on car gurus, picked one (White with MT) and called the dealer up. Here is how that went:

Me: Is the M2 you have listed at MSRP on gargurus still available?
Sales person: Yes it is.
Me: Is that your best price?
SP: We sold the last three at MSRP
Me: I see a lot of them available at the moment and some listed for $1000 below MSRP. I'm shopping for the best deal. I would not buy at MSRP
SP: What do you have in mind?
Me: Would you do $1000 over invoice?
SP: Let me talk to my manager, when could you come down?
Me: I'm not local, but could fly out there if you are willing to make that sort of deal.
SP: I think we can, but it would have to be in the next couple of days, we wouldn't hold the car for that deal.
Me: OK, I will call you back. Thanks!

So obviously this was not a done deal, but I did not get the sense that I was being unrealistic and it was one try. I'm sure if I work a little harder at it and/or wait for end of month/year, or a little deeper in to the winter things will only get easier.

So you guys keep telling yourselves that the supply has not met the demand, but a few months ago any dealer would have laughed at my offer.

[norMcal]

The BaT auction ended at the $55k bid. Looks like it sold and wasn't under reserve. So one person actaully didn't mind paying more for this car then what he could have bought it new for. Maybe it made sense for him, since he was local and the car is what he wanted?

Anyway, there are some interesting remarks in the comment section of that auction. Like this one:

The market is a little strange here in SoCal. Some dealers are still asking ADM, others are charging MSRP and some are letting them go for under. Market data point: I got a very similar new M2: same color, manual, no exec pkg, but black kidneys and with adaptives (factory was putting the on some cars at no charge) for $2200 under MSRP 2 days ago. Only downside was it came with the Contis and I would have preferred the Michelins.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by norMcal

The BaT auction ended at the $55k bid. Looks like it sold and wasn't under reserve. So one person actaully didn't mind paying more for this car then what he could have bought it new for. Maybe it made sense for him, since he was local and the car is what he wanted?

Anyway, there are some interesting remarks in the comment section of that auction. Like this one:

The market is a little strange here in SoCal. Some dealers are still asking ADM, others are charging MSRP and some are letting them go for under. Market data point: I got a very similar new M2: same color, manual, no exec pkg, but black kidneys and with adaptives (factory was putting the on some cars at no charge) for $2200 under MSRP 2 days ago. Only downside was it came with the Contis and I would have preferred the Michelins.

Perhaps the buyer couldn't find a MT car in MG for a better price that they could have immediately, but as much as I want the N55 M2 used prices to be in my favor, I still don't think this sale made much sense.

[OG///M]

I like how norMcal starts this thread and keeps it going by reiterating what he/she believes to be truth from the get go.

Every comment made was to reaffirm the believe that obviously "supply has caught up with demand". Even going as far as saying a fellow M car enthusiast is foolish when his belief is challenged.

A car is worth what the person is willing to pay. Just because you think it's not worth it, does not mean it's not worth it for someone else.

The supply/demand discussion is simply a regional thing, some areas are plenty/possibly under MSRP, while other areas are still Market Adjustment+.

/thread

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by Francis///M

I like how norMcal starts this thread and keeps it going by reiterating what he/she believes to be truth from the get go.

Every comment made was to reaffirm the believe that obviously "supply has caught up with demand". Even going as far as saying a fellow M car enthusiast is foolish when his belief is challenged.

A car is worth what the person is willing to pay. Just because you think it's not worth it, does not mean it's not worth it for someone else.

The supply/demand discussion is simply a regional thing, some areas are plenty/possibly under MSRP, while other areas are still Market Adjustment+.

/thread

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Francis///M

I like how norMcal starts this thread and keeps it going by reiterating what he/she believes to be truth from the get go.

Every comment made was to reaffirm the believe that obviously "supply has caught up with demand". Even going as far as saying a fellow M car enthusiast is foolish when his belief is challenged.

A car is worth what the person is willing to pay. Just because you think it's not worth it, does not mean it's not worth it for someone else.

The supply/demand discussion is simply a regional thing, some areas are plenty/possibly under MSRP, while other areas are still Market Adjustment+.

/thread

The entire idea that there is an imbalance of supply and demand for this car (an M2) or for anything else being sold in our ostensibly free market is laughable. The whole purpose of a free market is to keep supply and demand of just about everything in balance. I happen to like caviar; if it cost $5/lb, I'd eat it 3x a week. I also like Maine Lobster, King Crab, Prime Tenderloin, Chateau Lafite, DRC La Tache, and lots of other stuff. It is only through the pricing mechanism that only a free market can give, that these things are so expensive that I either do not consume them at all (La Tache; Lafite, most forms of Caviar) or consume them with moderation (Tenderloin, King Crab, and Lobster).

When you have a situation like a new car where the manufacturer spells out a "suggested price," or "MSRP," with a certain number of units being produced, then the market adjusts to this with such things as dealer markups, and waiting lists where your place on such a list may be related to your other relationships with a dealer. In the latter case, you are paying for the car with not only money, but your time and patience. Time and patience have a price and a value; one of the reasons that some people use private jets or buy first class airplane tickets is that they do not want to have to wait for other people, so they buy their way out of that problem.

To talk about there being "more demand" for an M2 now than there is supply, the silly assumption is that the demand part of the equation is fixed. It most definitely IS NOT fixed. If my local dealer were to call me up and tell me that he had exactly the car I wanted at a price I would be willing to pay, and by the way he'll give me what I think my trade in is worth, then I'm in. If on the other hand he has a somewhat different vehicle and it's at a price I'm not willing to pay, I'm out.

So don't count me and however many other people there out there who have thought once or twice about buying this car as part of the "demand" for this car. My interest in this car is very uncertain and depends on particular things that if not present results in no demand on my part. And I believe there are lots of other people just like me whose demand for this vehicle or for anything else is extremely soft.

[Wharf Rat]

Originally Posted by norMcal

OK, so I looked up the new M2's on car gurus, picked one (White with MT) and called the dealer up. Here is how that went:

Me: Is the M2 you have listed at MSRP on gargurus still available?
Sales person: Yes it is.
Me: Is that your best price?
SP: We sold the last three at MSRP
Me: I see a lot of them available at the moment and some listed for $1000 below MSRP. I'm shopping for the best deal. I would not buy at MSRP
SP: What do you have in mind?
Me: Would you do $1000 over invoice?
SP: Let me talk to my manager, when could you come down?
Me: I'm not local, but could fly out there if you are willing to make that sort of deal.
SP: I think we can, but it would have to be in the next couple of days, we wouldn't hold the car for that deal.
Me: OK, I will call you back. Thanks!

So obviously this was not a done deal, but I did not get the sense that I was being unrealistic and it was one try. I'm sure if I work a little harder at it and/or wait for end of month/year, or a little deeper in to the winter things will only get easier.

So you guys keep telling yourselves that the supply has not met the demand, but a few months ago any dealer would have laughed at my offer.

Hmmm. so did this SP ever actually 'talk to his manager'? I say he's blowing smoke up yer skirt over a car that isn't really available.

You: Hey, that deal we talked about earlier today? I'm on my way.
SP: Oh, sorry, that car is already sold.

When supply = demand I should be able to pop into any dealership & drive out with the car, not wait for an opportunity to order one & months for delivery.
Just about any other car in the sub-six figure range can either be bought from existing inventory or ordered that same day. Having to wait for an 'allocation' to be able to place an order simply means that supply doesn't meet demand, however small each category actually is.

[matty_f]

Originally Posted by norMcal

The BaT auction ended at the $55k bid. Looks like it sold and wasn't under reserve. So one person actaully didn't mind paying more for this car then what he could have bought it new for. Maybe it made sense for him, since he was local and the car is what he wanted?

Anyway, there are some interesting remarks in the comment section of that auction. Like this one:

The market is a little strange here in SoCal. Some dealers are still asking ADM, others are charging MSRP and some are letting them go for under. Market data point: I got a very similar new M2: same color, manual, no exec pkg, but black kidneys and with adaptives (factory was putting the on some cars at no charge) for $2200 under MSRP 2 days ago. Only downside was it came with the Contis and I would have preferred the Michelins.

That was me. I'm loving my new M2. Dealer was Long Beach.

Edit.. and if you're looking for a Mineral Gray, manual, exec pkg, black grills, at MSRP, Encinitas will have it this week. Talk to Davin.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by Wharf Rat

Hmmm. so did this SP ever actually 'talk to his manager'? I say he's blowing smoke up yer skirt over a car that isn't really available.

You: Hey, that deal we talked about earlier today? I'm on my way.
SP: Oh, sorry, that car is already sold.

When supply = demand I should be able to pop into any dealership & drive out with the car, not wait for an opportunity to order one & months for delivery.
Just about any other car in the sub-six figure range can either be bought from existing inventory or ordered that same day. Having to wait for an 'allocation' to be able to place an order simply means that supply doesn't meet demand, however small each category actually is.

Originally Posted by matty_f

That was me. I'm loving my new M2. Dealer was Long Beach.

Congrats on getting a fair market deal ;-)

I actually noticed that listing and was surprised to see a SoCal car listed for MSRP. Thanks for confirming that one can negotiate $2200 under MSRP.

[matty_f]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Congrats on getting a fair market deal ;-)

I actually noticed that listing and was surprised to the a SoCal car listed for MSRP. Thanks for confirming that one can negotiate $2200 under MSRP.

I'm a fairly good negotiator. I got $5200 off my wife's custom ordered MB GLC300 this month too, but honestly I think with the M2 it was probably dumb luck. "My guy" at the dealer, the one I bought my wife's 428 from 3 years ago, told me no deals under MSRP, even though they had the car listed $564 under on their website (pic below). I called someone else at the same dealer and within a few phone calls we had a deal. I got a ride over and picked it up 2 hours later. So if your sales rep doesn't want to deal, maybe try someone else at the same dealer.