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      01-14-2018, 12:31 PM   #1
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Buy used vs. new, market price and resale

Long time M car guy, considering an M2 vs. E92 M3. Focused on pricing questions here.

Trying to get a gauge on the new vs. used. What is expected depreciation. And doing research on LCI, etc.

Looking at autotrader. seems the lowest price 17's are high 40's, running up to low 50's. 16 w 25k miles is $47k.

I also see new for $54k starting. Which is a base 18. Which is all I need. I want a base manual, sunroof would be nice but not a showstopper.

So my conclusion is to spend $54k to get a base 18 LCI right? I mean why pay $52k to $55kk for a used 17. If I'm only paying 10% more for an 18 brad new then its a wash to me. As the 18 is a year newer, and will sell for 10% more anyways.

My hunch is the ADM's will go away, pricing will settle down, then get to a normal depreciation cycle of around 10% annual. Or 60% of MSRP after 3 years, so 40% over 3 years. So around $500 to $600 a month in depreciation which is my budget.

Curious if anybody is looking used vs. new. I know many hate the financial stuff and will get all grumpy, but I like to know what I'm committing financially before I get into a car.
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      01-14-2018, 12:42 PM   #2
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FWIW, 24mo lease residual is is 57% (43% depreciation)......36mo 54%.

I think a reason why so many used cars are not moving at the “high” asking prices.
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      01-14-2018, 12:44 PM   #3
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Go for a new one - ADM seems to be long gone yet used M2 prices seem to remain over-inflated in many cases. There's a number of pricing threads and, while mostly anecdotal evidence, taken in aggregate I would aim for a new one for sure if I were in your shoes.
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      01-14-2018, 12:47 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oalvarez View Post
FWIW, 24mo lease residual is is 57% (43% depreciation)......36mo 54%.

I think a reason why so many used cars are not moving at the “high” asking prices.
Thanks. The residuals are helpful. Based on today's prices, whoever did a 2 year lease will have some "equity" in their car when lease is up!

So $55k car x .46 = $25,300 \ 36 = $700 per month.

Seems a bit off. Its hard to imagine a 16 M2 selling for $30k in less than 2 years?
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      01-14-2018, 12:50 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobert View Post
Go for a new one - ADM seems to be long gone yet used M2 prices seem to remain over-inflated in many cases. There's a number of pricing threads and, while mostly anecdotal evidence, taken in aggregate I would aim for a new one for sure if I were in your shoes.
Question: is there still any discounts on ED? I did ED back in 2005, probably before many of you were born lol.

Back then there was no discount on M. So I got a 06 330i just for the experience.
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      01-14-2018, 02:20 PM   #6
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I had the same plan as you! It's a good one - this car doesn't need any add-ons. Got my 2018 LBB 6MT last month.

I went new for the reasons you state - the slight discount on a used one is not worth it to me personally. I'd rather just get a new one for a few thousand more. I didn't lease though (so maybe that changes the math?). Btw, I had an extremely hard time finding one without the Executive package, which I did wind up getting. In my case it was actually probably worth it since I have a driveway from hell which likes to eat up exhaust tips and the partk distance sensors have helped me keep mine in good shape.
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      01-14-2018, 02:47 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MojorisinM3 View Post
Long time M car guy, considering an M2 vs. E92 M3. Focused on pricing questions here.

Trying to get a gauge on the new vs. used. What is expected depreciation. And doing research on LCI, etc.

Looking at autotrader. seems the lowest price 17's are high 40's, running up to low 50's. 16 w 25k miles is $47k.

I also see new for $54k starting. Which is a base 18. Which is all I need. I want a base manual, sunroof would be nice but not a showstopper.

So my conclusion is to spend $54k to get a base 18 LCI right? I mean why pay $52k to $55kk for a used 17. If I'm only paying 10% more for an 18 brad new then its a wash to me. As the 18 is a year newer, and will sell for 10% more anyways.

My hunch is the ADM's will go away, pricing will settle down, then get to a normal depreciation cycle of around 10% annual. Or 60% of MSRP after 3 years, so 40% over 3 years. So around $500 to $600 a month in depreciation which is my budget.

Curious if anybody is looking used vs. new. I know many hate the financial stuff and will get all grumpy, but I like to know what I'm committing financially before I get into a car.
Tough to see a 3 year old m2 selling for 25k
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      01-14-2018, 02:57 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MojorisinM3 View Post
Question: is there still any discounts on ED? I did ED back in 2005, probably before many of you were born lol.

Back then there was no discount on M. So I got a 06 330i just for the experience.
Yes, there's a 5% discount for ED on the base M2 price, though not all dealers have been honoring it. I got mine for the ED MSRP.
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      01-14-2018, 03:19 PM   #9
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I am also in a similar situation thinking of new va used. I am leaning towards used as I will not have to pay tax (8.75%) in Arizona for private party purchase.

Also, some of the preowned have paint protection film, some accessories I might not have to put money in.

It does seem however, sellers are asking unrealistic prices for used cars.
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      01-14-2018, 05:30 PM   #10
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All signs point to MY19 getting a new engine in the form of detuned s55 m3 engine. You could wait and see if that changes used prices or not.

Also I would get executive package if you're worried about depreciation. People go crazy for the LED headlights for some reason so it will probably pay for itself and then some on the resale.

Someone said recently the lowest auction price was a my16 with 8k miles for 47k.

Depending on how long you keep it and what BMW does with the next gen Ms maybe prices will be higher than you think by the time you sell.


As far as e92 m3 I think prices are at the bottom and only going up from here.
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      01-14-2018, 07:06 PM   #11
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I happened to call a So. California dealer earlier today. They had two 2016's, each with about 10k miles on them. They also had two brand new 2018 M2's....

They are asking MSRP for the used ones (actually, he tells me they are demos, never registered, so whoever buys them will have full warranty) and MSPR + $5,000 for the 2018's...

I don't think that's typical, though.
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      01-14-2018, 07:45 PM   #12
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Demos of the car that most dealers will not allow people to test drive with 10,000 miles?

2016's, I wonder if they might've been at Laguna Seca for the press introduction?
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      01-14-2018, 07:58 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShelJW View Post
I happened to call a So. California dealer earlier today. They had two 2016's, each with about 10k miles on them. They also had two brand new 2018 M2's....

They are asking MSRP for the used ones (actually, he tells me they are demos, never registered, so whoever buys them will have full warranty) and MSPR + $5,000 for the 2018's...

I don't think that's typical, though.
Screw that, order one from a out of Ca dealer at MSRP or below MSRP and do a PCD at Thermal
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      01-14-2018, 08:39 PM   #14
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Used M2s

I have one of the first 700 M2s shipped to NA and if there was one available for $30k, I would buy another one!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MojorisinM3 View Post
Thanks. The residuals are helpful. Based on today's prices, whoever did a 2 year lease will have some "equity" in their car when lease is up!

So $55k car x .46 = $25,300 \ 36 = $700 per month.

Seems a bit off. Its hard to imagine a 16 M2 selling for $30k in less than 2 years?
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      01-14-2018, 10:48 PM   #15
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At the current spread between used and new, I'd definitely buy new. This will change, because logic dictates that it will. Don't know the time course, but I would bet within the year.
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      01-15-2018, 06:12 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MojorisinM3 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by oalvarez View Post
FWIW, 24mo lease residual is is 57% (43% depreciation)......36mo 54%.

I think a reason why so many used cars are not moving at the ÃÂà ƒÂ‚Ã‚ÂƒÃƒÂƒÃ‚ÂƒÃƒÂ‚Ã‚Â‚Ãƒ ƒÂ‚‚Ãà‚ƒÃ‚‚à ƒÂ‚ÂÂà ‚Â“highÃà ‚ƒÃÂà ‚Â‚ÃƒÂƒÃ‚Â‚ÃƒÂ‚Ã‚Â‚ÃƒÂƒÃ‚ ƒÃ‚ƒÃ‚ ‚ ” asking prices.
Thanks. The residuals are helpful. Based on today's prices, whoever did a 2 year lease will have some "equity" in their car when lease is up!

So $55k car x .46 = $25,300 \ 36 = $700 per month.

Seems a bit off. Its hard to imagine a 16 M2 selling for $30k in less than 2 years?
It's not a bit off. You are being too polite. It's WAY THE F OFF.
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      01-16-2018, 10:48 AM   #17
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When a lot of us bought our cars there really weren't any used on the market and if there were, they were often more $ than you'd pay for one at the dealer. A premium for not waiting 6+ months, I guess.

I'm typically a used car buyer. I'll buy something nice a year or 2 old and end up with a very nice car along with some change in my pocket. That simply wasn't possible with this car (I took delivery in early May). Sooooo, @ 47 I ended up with the first new car of my life.

Keep in mind that buying used also doesn't get you the free service and I think the BMW connected 4 year subscription (I think it's 4 year) may get turned off.
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      01-16-2018, 01:42 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maybatch2000 View Post
I am also in a similar situation thinking of new va used. I am leaning towards used as I will not have to pay tax (8.75%) in Arizona for private party purchase.

Also, some of the preowned have paint protection film, some accessories I might not have to put money in.

It does seem however, sellers are asking unrealistic prices for used cars.
We are practically twins here...

I'm in AZ and would mainly consider a used car because of the tax savings of purchasing private party, the add-ons would be a bonus.

I also agree that used asking prices are a bit unrealistic.

If the private party sales tax advantage didn't exist for me, I would probably just find a dealer to get the ED discount and plan a trip to Europe.
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      01-16-2018, 01:52 PM   #19
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Base list at $54.5. Add a grand for shipping, another for a color other than AW, plus another half for local marketing fees and you're quickly at $57k. Most used on the market are not stripped AW. So the real spread is probably closer to $10k+. With that said, OP is looking no option, so it's tough to compare. If you qualify for any of the big discounts - fleet, et al - new is a great way to go.
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      01-16-2018, 07:33 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blurbo311 View Post
We are practically twins here...

I'm in AZ and would mainly consider a used car because of the tax savings of purchasing private party, the add-ons would be a bonus.

I also agree that used asking prices are a bit unrealistic.

If the private party sales tax advantage didn't exist for me, I would probably just find a dealer to get the ED discount and plan a trip to Europe.
It sounds like used/new car buying in Idaho and Arizona are polar opposites. If you can buy a used PP car in AZ, and pay no sales tax to register it, this obviously encourages people to sell their used cars privately. Your sales tax is close to 9%, I think I read in another thread.

In Idaho, you have to pay sales tax on new and used cars regardless of who you bought them from, at a rate of 6%. On the other hand, if you trade in a car to a dealer in the process of buying a car from a dealer, you only pay our 6% sales tax on the DIFFERENCE between the value of the trade in and the price of the car you are buying. So to take a current example, I got about $20K trade in value on my 135i Coupe, that I have already traded in towards the M2 I'll be receiving in a couple of months. So, instead of paying the sales tax on ~$55K, I'll be paying it on $35K.

This obviously encourages people in ID to trade their used cars into a dealer, and it encourages the dealers to pay less for trade ins than they would pay otherwise, since they know that they have the customers who have a trade in by the balls.

My interpretation of all of this is that the car dealers have better lobbyists in Idaho than they do in Arizona; In Idaho, you have an incentive to trade in your used car, which severely limits and hurts the PP used car market. In Arizona, you have the exact opposite!
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      01-17-2018, 01:54 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by champignon View Post
It sounds like used/new car buying in Idaho and Arizona are polar opposites. If you can buy a used PP car in AZ, and pay no sales tax to register it, this obviously encourages people to sell their used cars privately. Your sales tax is close to 9%, I think I read in another thread.

In Idaho, you have to pay sales tax on new and used cars regardless of who you bought them from, at a rate of 6%. On the other hand, if you trade in a car to a dealer in the process of buying a car from a dealer, you only pay our 6% sales tax on the DIFFERENCE between the value of the trade in and the price of the car you are buying. So to take a current example, I got about $20K trade in value on my 135i Coupe, that I have already traded in towards the M2 I'll be receiving in a couple of months. So, instead of paying the sales tax on ~$55K, I'll be paying it on $35K.

This obviously encourages people in ID to trade their used cars into a dealer, and it encourages the dealers to pay less for trade ins than they would pay otherwise, since they know that they have the customers who have a trade in by the balls.

My interpretation of all of this is that the car dealers have better lobbyists in Idaho than they do in Arizona; In Idaho, you have an incentive to trade in your used car, which severely limits and hurts the PP used car market. In Arizona, you have the exact opposite!
True, except that AZ also only charges you sales tax on the difference. Most people I know would rather take $20k on trade and save $1,800 in taxes than go through the hassle of selling the car privately for $25,000. Most people who sell their nicer cars privately are aware of the no-sales-tax-on-private-sales thing so they price their cars higher and when you talk price with them or offer them bluebook, they respond with, 'yes, but you are saving $3-4k on taxes.'

I think in CA and a few other states don't offer the credit against sales tax from your trade, terrible.
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      01-17-2018, 03:36 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blurbo311 View Post
True, except that AZ also only charges you sales tax on the difference. Most people I know would rather take $20k on trade and save $1,800 in taxes than go through the hassle of selling the car privately for $25,000. Most people who sell their nicer cars privately are aware of the no-sales-tax-on-private-sales thing so they price their cars higher and when you talk price with them or offer them bluebook, they respond with, 'yes, but you are saving $3-4k on taxes.'

I think in CA and a few other states don't offer the credit against sales tax from your trade, terrible.
Well, I'm certainly in the group of people unwilling to devote my precious time to dealing with the public in selling my own used cars . . . . .

I don't think that there are that many states that only charge sales tax on the difference between the new car and the trade in. And then, not every occasion for selling a car involves buying one to replace it.

I haven't bought any of my used/classic cars in-state, mostly because people don't generally own the kind of cars I like in Idaho; this is SUV and Pickup country.
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