[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by champignon

Certainly, it is.

Having bought a number of used cars in the last few years, including maybe 3 that are considered to be classics (996TT; 1M; Z3M Coupe) and having some sense of the automotive marketplace, I would advise against it.

The aphorism that fits best would be, "cheaper in, cheaper out." This applies to most purchases where the item being purchased is apt to be resold, such as a house or a car. That house that cost $20,000 less because it backs up to a busy road, will get you less when you resell it, because most buyers prefer to buy houses that are not exposed to lots of road noise.

Similarly, if you buy a used car with some age and miles on it, then resell it later, the miles and age the car had on it when you bought it used will also effect the resale price. If on the other hand you bought new for several thousand dollars more, you will only lose whatever the depreciation there is from when you bought it new, and the extra depreciation in the case of the used M2 cited doesn't compensate enough.

Don't get me wrong, I love to buy slightly used cars at advantageous prices; I did that with my 2013 135i coupe, and with my 135is convertible. But I saved arouond 40% on each of those, and they were only 2 years old and had low mileage at my time of purchase.

Here, with this M2, you appear to get the worst of both worlds; a minuscule discount plus age and mileage, and to boot, no new car smell!

Agree one million percent. If the buyer knows he will only be driving minimal miles and the car may catch up to the market over time then that might be a factor in making the decision, but really.... garbage in garbage out.

The idea is to buy low and sell high not buy low and sell low.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by afwares

This. Comparing the M2 to the 1M and concluding that their price trajectories can't be the same because of the difference in their production numbers misses the larger point - it's not about absolute numbers, it's about relative numbers. I believe the potential market for the M2 is much larger than that for the 1M. I'm just one guy with one opinion, but I had, and still have, no interest in the 1M. I don't care how well it performed or how rare it is - aesthetically it just doesn't appeal to me. The M2, to my eyes, is dramatically more attractive. So what if I'm not alone?

In absolute terms, yes the 1M is more rare than the M2. But in relative terms? What's more rare...3000 people chasing 800 1M, or 25,000 people chasing 5000 M2? I'm not predicting these numbers - I have no idea how many college juniors who are 2 years away from their first job are hoping for a chance at an M2, or how many Facebook programmers are waiting for the first round of their options packages to vest so they can get an M2. The point is, both the 1M and M2 boast production numbers that may be dramatically smaller than number of people who want one today, tomorrow, and 2 years from now.

You have an interesting theory, and I am sure there are some cases where it might apply. But the larger picture is most likely that people will move on. The 1M is a different animal all together. I agree, I don't like the styling on it, but the M2's does not blow me away either. Regardless, the 1M will always be a collector car due to those low numbers. The M2 will do much better than an average production vehicle, but at the same time those potential customers you mentioned will not pay $50k+ for a used one, when they can buy better cars for the same money (used Cayman for example). In the end the price value comes in to play with the supply demand.

Originally Posted by Black Gold

I guess. But the fact is there are cars on the lots at or under msrp. That’s a fact in Houston.

If supply didn’t exceed demand this wouldn’t be the case.

Exactly!

[champignon]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

Not enough information.

If the M2 competition wasn't coming , one could make that conclusion. However the M2 comp is known to be coming. Therefore demand for the original M2 is dropping.

As is supply. Dealers aren't gonna order a bunch of older models if they don't have to.

Look at the way X3 sales dropped as the new model is coming out. X3 sales of the new model will be strong again.

Same will happen in July when the M2 Competition version comes out.

Same thing happens when the next iPhone is coming ..

Fortunately for most people looking at buying an M2, be it used or new, it is fairly obvious that buying one satisfies a "want," not a "need." And also just as fortunately, there are other options out there if one wants a sporty car. All of these things get thrown into the mix and in the end people make decisions based upon their priorities.

I happen to like Alaska King Crab, and I used to eat it all the time when it cost $10/lb. Now that Costco charges $21/lb for it, I buy it maybe once a year, if that. It's not that I can't afford to pay $21/lb for the crab, it's just that if I can buy a Prime NY steak for <$15/lb, the decision usually makes itself. Adding to this is the fact that half of what I buy when I buy the crab is bones that are inedible and thrown away.

Similarly, Porsches are now so expensive that I would not even consider buying a new one; they can raise their prices all they want and that may represent added value to some people, but to me it is just irrelevant.

As a result, any fixed comparison of specific items to be purchased, like the consumer price indexes, can be misleading, because when the price of chicken goes up, people substitute other things like pork, when California cabernet goes up people buy cheaper French or Chilean wines, etc.

So the price movement, even if the given sale is actually completed in some cases, does not tell the whole story. A lot of people simply take themselves out of the market, and move on to something else.

Peace!

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by Bluenose-2er

If he sells for $49K, a 10% price drop for a used car is a pretty darned good hold of value.

Absolutely! I am not arguing that. Just the fact that the same car would have demanded $55k a few months ago. Proof market is softening.

Also, keep in mind, most M2's sold for $5-10k dealer mark up. At least here in CA. If that was the case for this car, then the price drop is more like 15-20%......now!

[Fear-Mongrel]

Originally Posted by champignon

Really, all of this is more or less irrelevant; one person's opinion vs. another's boils down to the old line that opinions are like assholes, everyone has one . . . .

The only thing that matters is actual selling prices, which clearly and unambiguously reflect supply and demand at any instant in time.

You're absolutely correct - I think I made the mistake of interpreting the discussion as one about the movement of prices going forward. I didn't realize this was a discussion about what the price is of the M2 today, right now, on a dealer's lot somewhere in Houston (or anywhere) at this moment. In that case, yes I agree, someone in Houston or anywhere buying an M2 today has a good chance of paying less than someone who bought one in that same place a year ago and that can be interpreted as price weakness with the M2. I'm good with dispensing with any form of prognostication - my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's.

[M2Nebula]

Originally Posted by champignon

I happen to like Alaska King Crab, and I used to eat it all the time when it cost $10/lb. Now that Costco charges $21/lb for it, I buy it maybe once a year, if that. It's not that I can't afford to pay $21/lb for the crab, it's just that if I can buy a Prime NY steak for <$15/lb, the decision usually makes itself. Adding to this is the fact that half of what I buy when I buy the crab is bones that are inedible and thrown away.

You forgot to factor in the soup stock you should be making from those bones. Julia child would be very upset with you!

[akkando]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

Agree one million percent. If the buyer knows he will only be driving minimal miles and the car may catch up to the market over time then that might be a factor in making the decision, but really.... garbage in garbage out.

The idea is to buy low and sell high not buy low and sell low.

Buy low sell high applies to investments, generally not vehicles.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by akkando

Buy low sell high applies to investments, generally not vehicles.

For vehicles, the usual is "Buy high sell low."

If you are smart, then you "Buy low and sell lower."

:-)

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by champignon

For vehicles, the usual is "Buy high sell low."

If you are smart, then you "Buy low and sell lower."

:-)

If u really smart then u just make more money
DB post of the day.

[Potatohead-M2]

Originally Posted by M2Nebula

You forgot to factor in the soup stock you should be making from those bones. Julia child would be very upset with you!

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by akkando

Buy low sell high applies to investments, generally not vehicles.

it ABSOLUTELY applies to the ones I buy!

BMW 1M and two BMW E30 M3 ....

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Absolutely! I am not arguing that. Just the fact that the same car would have demanded $55k a few months ago. Proof market is softening.

Also, keep in mind, most M2's sold for $5-10k dealer mark up. At least here in CA. If that was the case for this car, then the price drop is more like 15-20%......now!

# because idiots in CA

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Bt12

If u really smart then u just make more money
DB post of the day.

One way to do that is to avoid wasting time on automotive forums . . . .

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by champignon

One way to do that is to avoid wasting time on automotive forums . . . .

Lol. That wasa good one.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

# because idiots in CA

Yep, which is why many are moving to Texas

[Artemis]

Originally Posted by champignon

So the price movement, even if the given sale is actually completed in some cases, does not tell the whole story. A lot of people simply take themselves out of the market, and move on to something else.

Yes, fact of life: in life we all go through stages, encounter different situations and views, often influencing mindsets and (purchase) decisions at certain points in time, for better or for worse. Panta rhei. Choices ain't always related to the car itself - often those are predominantly related to your temporary personal situation, which inevitably is subject to evolution and shifting priorities.

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by norMcal

The 1M is a different animal all together. I agree, I don't like the styling on it, but the M2's does not blow me away either. Regardless, the 1M will always be a collector car due to those low numbers.

Like the m4 gts? I couldn't imagine a current limited car with a softer market value. The car not only needs to be limited, but special in a unique way. Like an M1. I don't see the long term appeal of the 1M or the m4 gts. Further, I'm really having my doubts about the future M2 CSL. I think the m4 gts is showing that the appeal of a car kitted with a roll cage is very limited.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Like the m4 gts? I couldn't imagine a current limited car with a softer market value. The car not only needs to be limited, but special in a unique way. Like an M1. I don't see the long term appeal of the 1M or the m4 gts. Further, I'm really having my doubts about the future M2 CSL. I think the m4 gts is showing that the appeal of a car kitted with a roll cage is very limited.

Sure! I figured that goes without saying.

The M4 GTS suffered from pretty mediocre reviews. It was presumed special, until the cat was out of the bag, that it kind of sucks, at least compared to a GT3.

Also, at more than twice the price of an 1M the market is obviously going to behave different, because of different competition.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Like the m4 gts? I couldn't imagine a current limited car with a softer market value. The car not only needs to be limited, but special in a unique way. Like an M1. I don't see the long term appeal of the 1M or the m4 gts. Further, I'm really having my doubts about the future M2 CSL. I think the m4 gts is showing that the appeal of a car kitted with a roll cage is very limited.

You will need to define what you mean by "long term."

More than 5 years out, this forum member's 1M with 12,000 miles on it just sold for more than its original MSRP:

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2011-bmw-1m-13/

Beyond resale data, everything else said about used car values is merely conjecture.

[ryem3]

Well, that was the asking anyway. The 1m is a neat car, but I just don't see the real collectability. Small car with a big motor, but this is far from a Shelby cobra. Or a z8, which is also very special, but again just doesn't really do anything particularly spectacularly.

I'll need to watch the Chris Harris video again. I think he still likes his 1m better, but I thought the m2 was a very close second.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Well, that was the asking anyway. The 1m is a neat car, but I just don't see the real collectability. Small car with a big motor, but this is far from a Shelby cobra. Or a z8, which is also very special, but again just doesn't really do anything particularly spectacularly.

I'll need to watch the Chris Harris video again. I think he still likes his 1m better, but I thought the m2 was a very close second.

1M has rarity + last hydraulic steering small coup from BMW + parts bin quirkiness and rawness not found in other models.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Well, that was the asking anyway. The 1m is a neat car, but I just don't see the real collectability. Small car with a big motor, but this is far from a Shelby cobra. Or a z8, which is also very special, but again just doesn't really do anything particularly spectacularly.

I'll need to watch the Chris Harris video again. I think he still likes his 1m better, but I thought the m2 was a very close second.

With BaT (Bring a Trailer) buyer's premium, more than $2000, the car sold for well more than $60K. The actual buyer, unknown at this point but who is likely to ultimately unmask himself in the 1M forum :-) , appears to have used the classic ebay buying technique of "sniping," which is to say that the bid price stayed static for quite a while at $56,000, but then in the last few minutes it went up to $58K, the ultimate selling price minus the buyer's premium. This tells me that there were at least 2 people seriously interested in the car, because otherwise it would either have stayed at $56K, or gone up slightly with a last minute bid, but instead it went up with several bids in the last 2 or 3 minutes. With a car this uncommon, this old, and this expensive, 2 serious bidders makes a "market," in my view. So, interest remains for the 1M, for whatever reason. We can debate the reasons, but interest remains nonetheless.

I bought mine from Canada 2.5 years ago for around $47K, all in. Since then I've added a few thousand miles to the odometer, which now sits at roughly 30K. I don't think it has been a "killer investment" in any sense of the word(s). When you net out the few thousand dollars I have into it at this point, for tires, insurance, the opportunity cost of money, etc., I've maybe broken even. Still, that's not bad for a 5 year old car.

Chris Harris liked the 1M more than the M2, because of its "naughtiness."