[6734202]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

Except that the The " factory limitation" is BMW AG wanting to push out X1... not because of any issues putting M2 out the door ..

X1 comes out of Leipzig as well? They must have had to shift a lot of production if a car was up 93% YOY.

[Destroya]

My X1 was built in Regensburg.

[calbears]

Originally Posted by 6734202

X1 comes out of Leipzig as well? They must have had to shift a lot of production if a car was up 93% YOY.

Think the E84 X1 was built in Leipzig, but the F48 is built at Regensburg

[mvigod]

I think if you wait you will see the prices come down. Probably 3k to 4k off MSRP on a new car. Will probably take about 6 months to a year to clear the backlog and once cleared the prices will drop.

The M3/M4/M5 all had same thing when new. I remember the F10 M5 was getting way over MSRP for first 3 to 6 months then it cooled off dramatically. A year after launch I saw cars going out more than 10k off msrp. You won't get 10k off an M2 as the total MSRP is half of the M5 loaded but you get the idea.

All depends how soon you want one and how much having one sooner rather than later is worth.

[pruettfan]

Originally Posted by mvigod

I think if you wait you will see the prices come down. Probably 3k to 4k off MSRP on a new car. Will probably take about 6 months to a year to clear the backlog and once cleared the prices will drop.

The M3/M4/M5 all had same thing when new. I remember the F10 M5 was getting way over MSRP for first 3 to 6 months then it cooled off dramatically. A year after launch I saw cars going out more than 10k off msrp. You won't get 10k off an M2 as the total MSRP is half of the M5 loaded but you get the idea.

All depends how soon you want one and how much having one sooner rather than later is worth.

I doubt we will see enough volume to impact the backlog to this point during 2017. Dealers were told what volume to expect for 2017 recently and the three I know of were disappointed to learn their 2017 volume will be the same as the 2016 volume was which for most is 4 cars, for the very high volume dealer they will get 10. Hard to say what the true demand is because so many are on multiple lists and we all know that there are those who are on the list and will pass when their turn comes up because of life circumstances. As frustrating as it was for me to wait for many months to get my car I am actually happy BMW hasn't flooded the market with these cars like so many factories would. Taking a disciplined approach is in the best interest of all of the current and future M2 owners. We have all seen a new car come out and it demands a premium for a few months and then within a few months they are selling just above invoice. I would rather not have that cycle on this car.

[mvigod]

It will be very hard for BMW to "leave money on the table" I think and those allocation numbers are going to go up as they try to satisfy demand. BMW has shareholders to satisfy and customers to satisfy and only by building enough M2's can they accomplish both. I don't see them positioning the M2 as a limited edition car like their actual limited edition cars of recent. Right now there is just an imbalance of supply and demand but they are working to increase production levels to bring things in balance I can almost guarantee.

Going a little further out you will see prices drop as these cars start to come off lease or owners simply decide to sell them and get something new (some people have a short attention span for any car whether it's a bmw, porsche, ferrari, etc).

Anyway, we are all guessing and will know for sure in the next 6 to 12 months what it looks like. I just think it's very rare for a full production vehicle (not limited edition) to hold anywhere close to MSRP after a year with the sole exception being Ferrari's.

[David1]

Originally Posted by mvigod

It will be very hard for BMW to "leave money on the table" I think and those allocation numbers are going to go up as they try to satisfy demand. BMW has shareholders to satisfy and customers to satisfy and only by building enough M2's can they accomplish both. I don't see them positioning the M2 as a limited edition car like their actual limited edition cars of recent. Right now there is just an imbalance of supply and demand but they are working to increase production levels to bring things in balance I can almost guarantee.

Going a little further out you will see prices drop as these cars start to come off lease or owners simply decide to sell them and get something new (some people have a short attention span for any car whether it's a bmw, porsche, ferrari, etc).

Anyway, we are all guessing and will know for sure in the next 6 to 12 months what it looks like. I just think it's very rare for a full production vehicle (not limited edition) to hold anywhere close to MSRP after a year with the sole exception being Ferrari's.

BMW has said from the start the M2 will not be produced in typical volume numbers. BMW is not trying to satisfy demand just like Porsche does on its more limited models. The plant where the M2 is made is at capacity and the new X2 will be built in the same plant very soon. Even the regular 2 series are constrained. My dealer knows their 2017 (through December) allocation and its the same as last year. They have enough of a list to go another 24 months of waiting so they are no longer adding to the list. Keep in mind that 1st quarter cars are already allocated so we are half way through the 17's already.

[mvigod]

Originally Posted by David1

BMW has said from the start the M2 will not be produced in typical volume numbers. BMW is not trying to satisfy demand just like Porsche does on its more limited models. The plant where the M2 is made is at capacity and the new X2 will be built in the same plant very soon. Even the regular 2 series are constrained. My dealer knows their 2017 (through December) allocation and its the same as last year. They have enough of a list to go another 24 months of waiting so they are no longer adding to the list. Keep in mind that 1st quarter cars are already allocated so we are half way through the 17's already.

You are assuming BMW doesn't add allocations. I am predicting they will.

My dealer has 2nd half allocations I can get in place for

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by mvigod

You are assuming BMW doesn't add allocations. I am predicting they will.

My dealer has 2nd half allocations I can get in place for

What? Who had second half allocations?
Presumably, dealers will get typical monthly allocations for m2s eventually. I don't know what your talking about, but dealers have already gotten build allocations through March. The next the months will be the last 2017 cars built. Then there is the German summer vacation factor- not quite sure how that will effect production.
Some assumptions were made about bmw protecting the value of consumers cars. I really think they couldn't care less. If they did, they wouldn't have produced 2016 cars for 4 months.

All that can really be said is that it is a great car for the money, right now. And very hard to get. And I would agree with others that there will not be a glut of these cars anytime soon. However, the 2018 lci will likely reduce some demand, yet increase demand for newer ones, thereby increase demand for older ones - full circle!