[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by doogee

Just look at current forecasts from vehicle manufacturers and quite a few credible people.

Again: the aim of all of these is revenue, first and foremost. Sell saving lives to governments, they buy in. Sell it to consumers, they buy in. Sell it to engineers, social scientists, practical realists such as myself, and any number of other intellectuals who can see the big picture -- we see the holes. And they are gargantuan.

We're not talking about speed cameras, downtown parking, or even universal healthcare here. We're talking about a primary method of individual travel and enabler of personal freedom, and an industry that throughout its history has been resistant to change unless it is forced upon it.

Originally Posted by doogee

It's your kind of thinking that stalls innovation.

No offense, because you don't know me ... but my entire career -- careers, actually -- has been made by my ability to think both creatively and practically in real-world situations. My kind of thinking keeps creatives who don't (or can't) see the big picture from being fired, and keeps others properly aware and informed, within certain areas of interest.

You're conversing with a bad-ass. Be careful about what you assume.

Originally Posted by doogee

I bet someone can answer your questions with great detail.

Just because I dont know, doesn't mean there is no answer lol.

Point taken. But you did decide to engage. And I have done my research (including reading the article you linked to; I'd read it beforehand) and understand the practical hurdles to the blanket adoption of autonomous vehicles. It goes beyond technology. Way beyond technology.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by Viffermike

Not to derail, so I'll metaphor-ize this:

Just as there are left-lane hogs who do that just to spite those who drive properly (see another thread) and clueless drivers who don't pay attention to how visible their car is at the proper times (headlights), there will be autonomous-car haters who will do crazy, crazy shite around those self-driving cars to see if they can get them to fail.

Bank on that.

That'd be me.

Has anyone considered that motorcycles will most likely never become autonomous vehicles...

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by Viffermike

Explain to me how an autonomous vehicle with no manual override would (I'm brainstorming here):
1). Be drive-able to be serviced if something needed repair: i.e., a body panel, a tire losing air, a knocked-off mirror, a noncritical software glitch, etc.
2). Be drive-able in countries without the infrastructure to support the system: i.e. [insert Second- and/or Third-World country here]
3). Be drive-able in remote areas where conventional GPS signals cannot or do not reach (i.e. parts of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Texas, Colorado, Oregon, etc.)
4). Be drive-able below ground (i.e. tunnels, parking garages, etc.) where conventional GPS signals cannot or do not reach
5). Be drive-able on a route not prescribed by the autonomous system (necessary due to everything from traffic issues to fulfilling, say, a distance-based restraining order)
6). Be drive-able for purposes other than simply going from Point A to Point B: i.e., hauling cargo with/without a trailer, going off-road, recreational use, etc. Not everyone has a use for an autonomous Chevy Bolt or somesuch ...
7). Be drive-able during legitimate emergencies where reliance on the system is impractical, too slow, or life-threatening (example: a woman giving birth)

And most of all:
8). Be drive-able because the system itself fails

I've said this in other threads: The autonomous operation of complex vehicles that endanger lives is a pipe dream that does not exist yet and will not exist for several generations. Even in instances where the technology has been in use for many years -- from aircraft autopilot systems to military applications such as guided armaments (cruise missiles, etc.) -- manual override is still either possible or required. Example: pilots must still execute the takeoffs and landings of commercial aircraft.

Don't believe the hype. Blanket autonomous personal vehicles will not happen for a very, very long time -- particularly in the U.S., where such a system goes against the most fundamental right our country was founded on: personal liberty. That cannot be completely sacrificed in the name of saving lives.

Perfectly stated and in a nutshell. Well done. The issue I see with autonomous vehicles is the changeover from self-operated vehicles. The US road infrastructure is a Public/private system where the Govt. builds the infrastructure and it is used by private citizens and their personal property. It's a highly effective means of transporting people, goods, and services. Autonomous operation of it means that the Government will have to take control of the traffic, which means the government will have to know the planned trip of each vehicle so that local traffic control can account for each vehicle operating within the ground space. This is how the FAA controls airplane traffic and that is the model the DOT will use once the autonomous vehicle technology develops. So self-operated vehicles will not be allowed to drive in the same ground space as the autonomous traffic, which means self-driving vehicles will stop being produced.

But the question is when. The are over 250 million self-driving privately-owned vehicles in the US today. It is not possible to instantly convert the private property part of the new autonomous transportation system over from self-driving to autonomous. Cars are produced and purchase in a just-in-time fashion, where the inventory of cars flows from factory to driveway based on free-market conditions. If the Government sets a mandate to switch over from self-driving to autonomous, say January 1st 2045, all self-driving cars are banned at that point, and people buy cars at $35K a pop and keep them 10 years on average, so when do people stop buying self-driving cars? I'm most certainly not going to buy a $40K self-driving car 5 years before the deadline, and not 2, or 1 year in advance of it. What if my current car in 2040 needs replacement 5 years before the mandate?

I don't see this happening ever. It's an engineering pipedream. Yup, it can be accomplished technically, but the adoption of a fully autonomous transportation system by society will be the far grater challenge to solve.