[sh_kross]

Originally Posted by Artemis

Marry a person you love who lives close to the mountains and lakes and enjoy from time to time that sweet wanderlust with that good old N55 wolf howling through the twisties.

Man... I got to admit... I'm feeling pretty jealous right now.

[3geekfamily]

Originally Posted by Artemis

Marry a person you love who lives close to the mountains and lakes and enjoy from time to time that sweet wanderlust with that good old N55 wolf howling through the twisties.

I wish it was that easy! Already married... but if anything ever happened, that would be my plan. Haha

[F87_LCI]

Originally Posted by Transfer

To OP: The N55 M2s will decrease in value as I think we all know. I think the rate is going to seem steep initially due to 2 years of backorders and many cars sold over MSRP that have held value, but will correct downward this summer/fall. The S55 M2 will be the "better" car, but not to all buyers. The N55 M2, especially the LCI will be cherished by many and will not have value or desireability fall off a cliff, but will decline like any other M car. The S55 cars will have a couple years where they seem to be holding strong value and then they will do the same.

There is nothing terribly special about the value or worth of the N55 M2 but also nothing to suggest it will become forgotten. It is a very good car and currently BMW's best driver's car.

I was thinking this as well with respect to the LCI. It was only built for 1 model year, 2018. I'm sure someone on here can tell us the exact numbers built, and it would be interesting to know how many. Often cars that have limited availability (regardless of the performance) are sought after. Then again ...who knows. I happened to stop by my dealer today and what do I see sitting there as a CPO? BSM 1M. Not what I would consider low mileage, but not high by any means. I thought these cars were supposed to be getting snapped up whenever they are available? I asked the SA how they got it and he said a customer traded it in for an SUV.

[DanG]

I find this thread pretty meaningless. If you are thinking of getting rid of your M2 in three years or less, you probably leased your car. The real residual doesn’t matter much because if it is low, you can just give the car back.

If you bought it, you probably are going to hold it for a long time. Otherwise the sales tax and other upfront costs are going to kill you.

I for one bought my M2 and I am planning on keeping it for at least eight years. I don’t care what BMW comes up with in the near future. I love this car and I am not looking at anything else.

[krizze]

Originally Posted by tomwac

Unless the EU will ban all combustion engines from most cities, like they're starting to ban diesels now... Then we'll have to rely on the needs of the African car market

And there are around 500 M2's for sale in Europe; the gates are opening

I don't think you read what I wrote properly, the car isn't registered meaning it's never been driven and this specific model is no longer in production, so it's irrelevant to me if there are 500 for sale in Europe, there are 16 for sale in the country I live in and due to not being registered I can export the car wherever I want, I'll go as far as saying I think the M2 will be a future classic, someone will want a completely brand new 1st gen. but yes you are right about diesels, but with BMW M planning to put in hybrid motors into future M cars, out M2's will increase in value it's inevitable and it's what I've been told by many car collectors

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by Artemis

Marry a person you love who lives close to the mountains and lakes and enjoy from time to time that sweet wanderlust with that good old N55 wolf howling through the twisties.
[PICTURES]

Phenomenal! Only problem I’d have with a place like this is.... there doesn’t appear to be any restaurants around. <- Trying to make myself feel better I live in a crappy high tax area with crappy roads

[Who?]

I only just bought an Lci,close to retail knowing the impending s55 update. All I really care(d) about is how phenominal it drove in a straight line and around the corner, and honestly couldn’t imagine how this car can possible improve. I may be wrong, and the s55 may take it that one step further, but do I care? Absolutely not

What I do care about is how sexy that new front bumper looks, so I might have to retrofit it when I feel like I need my own lifecycle impulse

[reppucci]

Originally Posted by F87_LCI

I was thinking this as well with respect to the LCI. It was only built for 1 model year, 2018. I'm sure someone on here can tell us the exact numbers built, and it would be interesting to know how many.

The pre-LCI production, although spanning 2 MY's 2016-2017, was really only 1.2 full year of production. The 2016 MY production didn't really ramp up until May and June 2016. I wouldn't expect the LCI MY 2018 numbers to be much different than the pre-LCI MY2016-17 numbers.

Perhaps SickFinga good give us an idea?

SickFinga did the pre-LCI numbers here

http://f87.bimmerpost.com/forums/sho....php?t=1404565

[norMcal]

The main reason the M2 is enjoying such good resale value is (was) supply and demand. However, what is overlooked a bit, is the fact that the car is actually too cheap. What else can you get for $55k with this sort of quality/performance/BMW image. I read a while back that inflation adjusted, the price of the M2 is cheaper than the e36 m3, and many would still rather have a used M2 than a new 240i, which is why the used prices are higher than they should be. Or higher than they typically are.

BTW, BMW made a similar "mistake" pricing the e36 M3 when it first came out. I bought an '97 m3 for right around $40k, and sold it after 42 months (3.5 year lease) for $32.5k with 42k miles on it. That was pretty spectacular resale, and keep in mind that the e36 M3 was nowhere near as rare as the M2 is.
Then I bought a e46 M3 for $53k and that seemed to be a bit more in line, as it depreciated faster, even though it was a better car than the e36 M3.

So IMHO a lot of the value retention has to do with where the cars fit in value wise, or how BMW set the starting price. Could very well be that the M2 Comp, being that it will be priced higher, will help the resale value of the N55 cars, because it raises the starting price of the M2 and $45-$50k will seem cheap in comparison, even a few years down the road.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

The main reason the M2 is enjoying such good resale value is (was) supply and demand. However, what is overlooked a bit, is the fact that the car is actually too cheap. What else can you get for $55k with this sort of quality/performance/BMW image. I read a while back that inflation adjusted, the price of the M2 is cheaper than the e36 m3, and many would still rather have a used M2 than a new 240i, which is why the used prices are higher than they should be. Or higher than they typically are.

BTW, BMW made a similar "mistake" pricing the e36 M3 when it first came out. I bought an '97 m3 for right around $40k, and sold it after 42 months (3.5 year lease) for $32.5k with 42k miles on it. That was pretty spectacular resale, and keep in mind that the e36 M3 was nowhere near as rare as the M2 is.
Then I bought a e46 M3 for $53k and that seemed to be a bit more in line, as it depreciated faster, even though it was a better car than the e36 M3.

So IMHO a lot of the value retention has to do with where the cars fit in value wise, or how BMW set the starting price. Could very well be that the M2 Comp, being that it will be priced higher, will help the resale value of the N55 cars, because it raises the starting price of the M2 and $45-$50k will seem cheap in comparison, even a few years down the road.

Plus, the US Government is doing everything within its power to debase the US$. A lot of any future "value retention" could be due to erosion in the value of the dollar, at least in absolute US$ in the USA.

[Happy Motoring]

Originally Posted by champignon

Actually, the biggest hits to the value of a N55 M2 are likely to be things that no one is discussing. These are entirely independent of the imminent arrival of the S55 version.

We haven't had a recession in a very long time. When we do get one, it could last for years, especially if the government intervenes. Just about no one "needs" an expensive small sporty coupe. I would venture to say that at least 98% of the car buying public has no interest in buying cars like an M2, and that's now, in good economic times. Just wait until the Ritz Carlson crowd starts staying at the Holiday Inn Express, and the Michelin Starred restaurant customers get forced instead to order take-out from Dominos.

Your M2, regardless of flavor, will be virtually unsaleable.

It could, however, be a good time to pick up a 1M :-)

This is the most probable scenario. And it's a scary one.

[kfscoll]

Originally Posted by norMcal

However, what is overlooked a bit, is the fact that the car is actually too cheap.

$55K certainly isn't "too cheap" IMHO. Its base price of $54,500 is exactly $12K less than the base price of the M3 -- which is right where it ought to be based on what that additional $12K buys you (bigger car, more power, more luxury, etc).

We're playing right into BMW's hands when we convince ourselves that a $60K+ car (because, let's face it, that's a more realistic OTD price of the M2) is somehow a bargain. It's a modified 2er for chrissakes, performance or not, using existing performance goodies pulled straight from the M3/M4, plus a legacy "non-M" motor. Don't get me wrong, I love my car, but I suspect BMW is making money hand over fist on these things.

Also, the fact that an M240i can be priced up to and over what the base M2 costs isn't a good indicator that the M2 is underpriced (not that you said this, but I see that argument bandied about). It's not too tough to option up a 340i to exceed the price of the base M3, and no one is arguing that the M3 is too cheap.

[Fear-Mongrel]

Originally Posted by norMcal

The main reason the M2 is enjoying such good resale value is (was) supply and demand. However, what is overlooked a bit, is the fact that the car is actually too cheap. What else can you get for $55k with this sort of quality/performance/BMW image. I read a while back that inflation adjusted, the price of the M2 is cheaper than the e36 m3, and many would still rather have a used M2 than a new 240i, which is why the used prices are higher than they should be. Or higher than they typically are.

BTW, BMW made a similar "mistake" pricing the e36 M3 when it first came out. I bought an '97 m3 for right around $40k, and sold it after 42 months (3.5 year lease) for $32.5k with 42k miles on it. That was pretty spectacular resale, and keep in mind that the e36 M3 was nowhere near as rare as the M2 is.
Then I bought a e46 M3 for $53k and that seemed to be a bit more in line, as it depreciated faster, even though it was a better car than the e36 M3.

So IMHO a lot of the value retention has to do with where the cars fit in value wise, or how BMW set the starting price. Could very well be that the M2 Comp, being that it will be priced higher, will help the resale value of the N55 cars, because it raises the starting price of the M2 and $45-$50k will seem cheap in comparison, even a few years down the road.

Big +1 to this. The M2 brought us out of automotive hibernation. We were car shopping because we needed something reliable, that's it. Our business is successful enough to buy what we want, but since we don't drive a lot we were just going to get a Mazda CX-5 or something similar. We were going to buy a car the way you'd buy a new coffee maker, just get something with good reviews and cross it off the to-do list. We shopped everything, and couldn't believe how much cars cost - my last new purchase was 2004 and I couldn't believe how much new cars cost and what you had to spend to get anything decent. We happened across the M2 accidentally - we don't even remember how we discovered it. And I remember thinking, "wait, you get all that, and it's an M car, and there are so few options to add because it already comes loaded, and they only want $55K for it??" We couldn't put a deposit down fast enough.

I'd always lusted after the E46 M3 in Laguna Seca Blue, but invested in our business instead. So this M2 is our make-up for missing that E46. We were going to buy a car without any excitement whatsoever, and the M2 changed that. NorMCal is very correct - I think BMW under-priced the M2 relative to the market and its competition. It's amazing to think that on an inflation-adjusted basis the M2 is cheaper than the E36.

With the M2 Comp, will BMW make up for leaving money on the table? I hope not via base price - I hope those of you who held out for the Competition are rewarded with as good a value as we're getting with the LCI. I do agree with everyone though that BMW will recapture that money via options and that what is a great value at $54,500 may become a difficult call at $70K+. And that's not even accounting for any exchange rate hammering they've taken over the last 12 months with the 20% move in the Euro - it wouldn't shock me if prices came in higher than expected for that reason alone. For us, at current pricing, and before what we think may be 2-3 rate hikes before anyone gets their hands on the Comp, and the possibility of price hikes due to exchange rate moves, the LCI is the right call for us for non-track weekend fun.

Will it take a hit from the S55? Maybe, but that's the least of our concerns. We agree with Champignon...we're far more concerned about dollar debasement, a shifting yield curve, the consequences of trade wars with Europe and China, and what happens when people wake up and realize how many assets are mis-priced. M2 depreciation, regardless of version, may be the least of anyone's concerns. Until then, we'll enjoy what we're getting and hope everyone else does too.

[Fear-Mongrel]

Originally Posted by kfscoll

$55K certainly isn't "too cheap" IMHO. Its base price of $54,500 is exactly $12K less than the base price of the M3 -- which is right where it ought to be based on what that additional $12K buys you (bigger car, more power, more luxury, etc).

We're playing right into BMW's hands when we convince ourselves that a $60K+ car (because, let's face it, that's a more realistic OTD price of the M2) is somehow a bargain. It's a modified 2er for chrissakes, performance or not, using existing performance goodies pulled straight from the M3/M4, plus a legacy "non-M" motor. Don't get me wrong, I love my car, but I suspect BMW is making money hand over fist on these things.

Also, the fact that an M240i can be priced up to and over what the base M2 costs isn't a good indicator that the M2 is underpriced (not that you said this, but I see that argument bandied about). It's not too tough to option up a 340i to exceed the price of the base M3, and no one is arguing that the M3 is too cheap.

On an absolute basis, you're absolutely right. $60K is a truckload of money - my parents paid less for the house I grew up in. But after 4 decades of fiat currency and the last 2 decades with the system completely, if not irrevocably, broken the M2 on a relative basis is priced very attractively. I'm talking about against its competition, which we just exhaustively shopped. The Lexus RC350 F Sport runs you over $50K and that car is a snooze-fest. A loaded Honda Accord gets you close to $40K. Again, I'm not trivializing the amount of money we're talking about...I grew up pretty close to poor. But in this system, with central banks backstopping everything and money flowing like cheap beer at a frat party, we like the M2 at $54,500.

[kfscoll]

Considering you can get a Camaro SS or Mustang GT starting in the low-$40K range, a Corvette starts at $55,500, a Civic R is $35K, not to mention other performance/muscle cars galore, I'd hardly call $55K for an M2 the bargain of the century. IMHO it's simply right-priced. It costs a little more than these other cars, but it brings a little more to the table too.

[champignon]

Of course the (US) dollar won't buy much, and almost all asset prices are inflated. Just go looking for income producing real estate and see what you can buy these days; dodgy properties yielding 5.0 to 6.5%, and this isn't allowing for vacancies. There appears to be little acceptance of the idea that good times end and bad times come around, all on an unpredictable schedule. I won't even fathom a guess as to how much the stock markets are overvalued.

In any comparison of relative value, with cars, the first few years with something like an M2 will look pretty good, however once the factory warranty has ended the cost of ownership can balloon, in comparison, for example, to a typical Japanese-made car.

Another thing to consider is the imminent demise of the sporty car as we know it, especially for those preferring manual transmissions. We have already lost hydraulic power steering, and the electric power steering (EPS) is a poor substitute, although relatively well-executed in the M2. How many more years will manual transmission BMWs even be available? How many more years until rear wheel drive disappears?

We are well into the 9th inning for these things, to use a baseball analogy. Older (used vintage) cars, which are readily available with manual transmissions, lack modern features. You can certainly do without a lot of these things, but it is nice to have some of the safety features and some of the integration with devices such as smart phones. We are well into the last hurrah for modern sporty cars with road feel and manual transmissions. If you like the M2, you probably do not have that much more time to get a new one, and once the platform changes, all bets are off.

[kfscoll]

Originally Posted by afwares

On an absolute basis, you're absolutely right. $60K is a truckload of money - my parents paid less for the house I grew up in. But after 4 decades of fiat currency and the last 2 decades with the system completely, if not irrevocably, broken the M2 on a relative basis is priced very attractively. I'm talking about against its competition, which we just exhaustively shopped. The Lexus RC350 F Sport runs you over $50K and that car is a snooze-fest. A loaded Honda Accord gets you close to $40K. Again, I'm not trivializing the amount of money we're talking about...I grew up pretty close to poor. But in this system, with central banks backstopping everything and money flowing like cheap beer at a frat party, we like the M2 at $54,500.

I'm with ya. I liked the M2 at my OTD price of $60K so much that I bought it! For me, it checked all the right boxes and the price was reasonable. But I don't think it was significantly underpriced. An M3/M4 at $60K OTD -- now that'd be underpriced. I also think that the M2 Competition will be right-priced assuming it starts around $60K. But to me, that's a shame, because right-priced or not, it becomes less accessible...moreso since it's replacing the "regular" M2. I would've loved to have seen BMW continue with the base M2 (say, with the B58 instead of the N55) and add the M2 Competition.

FWIW I have a 1996 Gary Fisher Joshua I can't bring myself to chuck in the bin!

Okay, I'm veering off-topic, so I'll shut up.

[Fear-Mongrel]

Originally Posted by kfscoll

I'm with ya. I liked the M2 at my OTD price of $60K so much that I bought it! For me, it checked all the right boxes and the price was reasonable. But I don't think it was significantly underpriced. An M3/M4 at $60K OTD -- now that'd be underpriced. I also think that the M2 Competition will be right-priced assuming it starts around $60K. But to me, that's a shame, because right-priced or not, it becomes less accessible...moreso since it's replacing the "regular" M2. I would've loved to have seen BMW continue with the base M2 (say, with the B58 instead of the N55) and add the M2 Competition.

FWIW I have a 1996 Gary Fisher Joshua I can't bring myself to chuck in the bin!

Okay, I'm veering off-topic, so I'll shut up.

We're only slightly off-topic, but it's fun ground to cover! And you make a great point with the Stingray and Camaro SS. We saw them at the recent auto show, and if my wife weren't so small (visibility a concern) we'd have shopped the Stingray. What a fantastic car at basically the same money as an M2, I totally agree. Same for the Camaro SS - we loved it. The Mustang, we'd have to debate - it disturbs me that Ford STILL cannot figure out how to align body panels on that car.

Re: the B58 in the M2, I'd have bought the N55 just to avoid the B58. I don't want any part of an engine that has to come out for VANOS service. It's my own limitation, I confess, I'm not a wrench-turner myself. I have to pay others to work on my cars so I'll trade a little horsepower and newness for easier servicing and track record. If I weren't afraid of engine-out servicing, I'd already own an F355, but I'm paranoid about repairs that can ruin your year, possibly even irrationally so!

Ok, sorry OP, back to our regularly scheduled programming...

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by kfscoll

$55K certainly isn't "too cheap" IMHO. Its base price of $54,500 is exactly $12K less than the base price of the M3 -- which is right where it ought to be based on what that additional $12K buys you (bigger car, more power, more luxury, etc).

We're playing right into BMW's hands when we convince ourselves that a $60K+ car (because, let's face it, that's a more realistic OTD price of the M2) is somehow a bargain. It's a modified 2er for chrissakes, performance or not, using existing performance goodies pulled straight from the M3/M4, plus a legacy "non-M" motor. Don't get me wrong, I love my car, but I suspect BMW is making money hand over fist on these things.

Also, the fact that an M240i can be priced up to and over what the base M2 costs isn't a good indicator that the M2 is underpriced (not that you said this, but I see that argument bandied about). It's not too tough to option up a 340i to exceed the price of the base M3, and no one is arguing that the M3 is too cheap.

Well I disagree. Let's just keep it apples to apples for all those (not you) that are comparing various other cars.

In 1997 I paid $40k for an e36 M3 Mt semi loaded
In 2001 I paid $54k for an e46 M3 Mt semi loaded
in 2018 I can buy a M2 with Mt and about the same options for ~$55k

E46 M3 and M2 are almost identical in size and performance. Same make, same clientele, yet the car is the same price, despite 17 years of inflation. Go look up what $55k would be in 2001 money. It is cheap compared to previous M models. Look at the price of a 911 in the same time frame. It nearly doubled.

Originally Posted by afwares

Big +1 to this. The M2 brought us out of automotive hibernation. We were car shopping because we needed something reliable, that's it. Our business is successful enough to buy what we want, but since we don't drive a lot we were just going to get a Mazda CX-5 or something similar. We were going to buy a car the way you'd buy a new coffee maker, just get something with good reviews and cross it off the to-do list. We shopped everything, and couldn't believe how much cars cost - my last new purchase was 2004 and I couldn't believe how much new cars cost and what you had to spend to get anything decent. We happened across the M2 accidentally - we don't even remember how we discovered it. And I remember thinking, "wait, you get all that, and it's an M car, and there are so few options to add because it already comes loaded, and they only want $55K for it??" We couldn't put a deposit down fast enough.

I'd always lusted after the E46 M3 in Laguna Seca Blue, but invested in our business instead. So this M2 is our make-up for missing that E46. We were going to buy a car without any excitement whatsoever, and the M2 changed that. NorMCal is very correct - I think BMW under-priced the M2 relative to the market and its competition. It's amazing to think that on an inflation-adjusted basis the M2 is cheaper than the E36.........

Thanks and congrats on the car.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by champignon

Of course the (US) dollar won't buy much, and almost all asset prices are inflated. Just go looking for income producing real estate and see what you can buy these days; dodgy properties yielding 5.0 to 6.5%, and this isn't allowing for vacancies. There appears to be little acceptance of the idea that good times end and bad times come around, all on an unpredictable schedule. I won't even fathom a guess as to how much the stock markets are overvalued.

In any comparison of relative value, with cars, the first few years with something like an M2 will look pretty good, however once the factory warranty has ended the cost of ownership can balloon, in comparison, for example, to a typical Japanese-made car.

Another thing to consider is the imminent demise of the sporty car as we know it, especially for those preferring manual transmissions. We have already lost hydraulic power steering, and the electric power steering (EPS) is a poor substitute, although relatively well-executed in the M2. How many more years will manual transmission BMWs even be available? How many more years until rear wheel drive disappears?

We are well into the 9th inning for these things, to use a baseball analogy. Older (used vintage) cars, which are readily available with manual transmissions, lack modern features. You can certainly do without a lot of these things, but it is nice to have some of the safety features and some of the integration with devices such as smart phones. We are well into the last hurrah for modern sporty cars with road feel and manual transmissions. If you like the M2, you probably do not have that much more time to get a new one, and once the platform changes, all bets are off.

I sold a bunch of investments. Market seems high. Not sure what to do with cash right now.

[doug_999]

Originally Posted by m34m

Isn't this why we lease? It's why I do anyway. I'll concern myself with this in two years time at lease expiry. There will be more data to make the right decision then. Until then however, it's all grins every time I push the (black) start button.

No
Because when BMW puts the residual at 46%, you walk from the lease. That means on a $55,000 M2, BMW says the car will be worth $27,000 at the end of 3 years (12K per year, 49% residual). For comparison sake, the trade in value of a 2015 235i is close to $23K - and they go for about $30K on the market. Do note that car is between 3 and 4 years old. Oh and there is a 240i out now (making the 235 worthless of course), and the M2, making the 240 worthless of course -and just wait until the M2 CS comes out and all 2-series become worthless (can you tell I find this thread silly?). But noooo, F87_LCI has to pull me in

Originally Posted by F87_LCI

As for my input…and I know this will give Doug999 and Captain Mushroom an aneurism…but this is EXACTLY why I lease cars.

Ok, we need to put a bet in place - can we do that here?

If at the beginning of 2020 (January?) a 2017 M2 (non LCI mind you ) with exec package is worth $28,000 or less on the median trade-in value at KBB, we can do one of two things
a) I fly "North" cause that's where you live. We go out to dinner and post pictures here of me buying you dinner
or
b) I go on record as saying "leasing the M2 was a good idea and I was wrong"

However... if the 2017 M2 is worth $30,000 or more, KBB with Exec package median price we can do one of two things
a) you fly to Chicago - we go to a great Italian restaurant, you pay, we post pics of my food from Sabatino's
b) You go on record as saying "leasing the M2 as a bad idea and Doug was right"

Come on, let's do it (and let's hope one of us remembers)

edit: Current residual for 36K/3 years is now 48% - I went with 49% for the above

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by champignon

Plus, the US Government is doing everything within its power to debase the US$. A lot of any future "value retention" could be due to erosion in the value of the dollar, at least in absolute US$ in the USA.

That happened at Davos