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      08-22-2016, 09:48 AM   #1
Ian ///M
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Allocations for October / November/ December (U.S.)

It's about that time so I decided to get the discussion rolling for the next roll out of allocations that are likely to come the second week of September.

I figured we are close enough and there are plenty of "sleeper agents" on here getting anxiety for this next roll out of allocations.

Personally I've always believed I was part of this batch (got a #7 spot at a local dealer last October a day after official announcement) and have been holding steady since, trying my hardest to not be annoying to my CA and SA lol.

Anything beyond the next batch , presumably December orders, will have me defeated personally

Anyone out there that have been hinted about history repeating itself and a new 3 month span of allocations being dropped in the U.S?
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      08-22-2016, 10:54 AM   #2
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Yup, but it won't be many more cars than the last batch.
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      08-22-2016, 11:05 AM   #3
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RE: Allocations for October / November/ December (U.S.)

Wasn't BMW expected to ramp up the volume of M2 production once the production line kinks were worked out? I would expect the allocations to be going up A LITTLE BIT now that the 2017 models are being produced.

-rb
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      08-22-2016, 12:44 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RBNetEngr View Post
Wasn't BMW expected to ramp up the volume of M2 production once the production line kinks were worked out? I would expect the allocations to be going up A LITTLE BIT now that the 2017 models are being produced.

-rb
No, that was purely speculation from members on this board hoping it would happen, but claiming it as truth and being too damn stubborn to listen to reason.

BMW has no plans to ramp up production and there are no "kinks" on the line - they can only make so many because of limitations on how to physically assemble the cars, it has nothing to do with "kinks". Best case scenario, with everything working super smoothly, they maybe, just maybe, can get 10 cars done in a day. Average has been 2-5.
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      08-22-2016, 12:45 PM   #5
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I wouldn't expect a significant increase in production capacity, or output, if they keep using the same production lines.
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      08-22-2016, 12:57 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
No, that was purely speculation from members on this board hoping it would happen, but claiming it as truth and being too damn stubborn to listen to reason.

BMW has no plans to ramp up production and there are no "kinks" on the line - they can only make so many because of limitations on how to physically assemble the cars, it has nothing to do with "kinks". Best case scenario, with everything working super smoothly, they maybe, just maybe, can get 10 cars done in a day. Average has been 2-5.
Yeah I think alot of people got caught up when one of the head BMW M guys said something to the effect of "we'll make as many as we can sell." That in no way means they'll ramp up, just that they'll keep making them into the foreseeable future, most likely at the same rate.
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      08-22-2016, 01:37 PM   #7
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And keep in mind that the New X2 starts coming down the line soon at the same plant so I do not see the M2 getting any more capacity.
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      08-22-2016, 01:57 PM   #8
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Just got a #8 spot on the list at a local high volume M dealership although now not positive if I want the car.

How this winter goes might be the deal-changer. Best case scenario, dealer gets 3-4 allocations (they've been averaging 2) and maybe someone drops off the list. I could live with being #3. Worst case, they get 1 (or zero ) allocations and in that case I'd probably decide it's not worth the wait.
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      08-22-2016, 02:01 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
No, that was purely speculation from members on this board hoping it would happen, but claiming it as truth and being too damn stubborn to listen to reason.

BMW has no plans to ramp up production and there are no "kinks" on the line - they can only make so many because of limitations on how to physically assemble the cars, it has nothing to do with "kinks". Best case scenario, with everything working super smoothly, they maybe, just maybe, can get 10 cars done in a day. Average has been 2-5.
Agreed, this was never stated to be fact by BMW

But to be fair, you are also speculating that it wont happen and that there is in fact no way that they can become more efficient. I dont think anyone would be shocked if BMW is able to create a few more units this time around.
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      08-22-2016, 02:05 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rmsport
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
No, that was purely speculation from members on this board hoping it would happen, but claiming it as truth and being too damn stubborn to listen to reason.

BMW has no plans to ramp up production and there are no "kinks" on the line - they can only make so many because of limitations on how to physically assemble the cars, it has nothing to do with "kinks". Best case scenario, with everything working super smoothly, they maybe, just maybe, can get 10 cars done in a day. Average has been 2-5.
Agreed, this was never stated to be fact by BMW

But to be fair, you are also speculating that it wont happen and that there is in fact no way that they can become more efficient. I dont think anyone would be shocked if BMW is able to create a few more units this time around.
Ok...let's catch up in six month's time and see if I was speculating

They may be able to make a few more, but unlikely worldwide production would change by more than 3-5%, if that.
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      08-22-2016, 03:17 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
Ok...let's catch up in six month's time and see if I was speculating

They may be able to make a few more, but unlikely worldwide production would change by more than 3-5%, if that.
Damn it.
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      08-22-2016, 04:20 PM   #12
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From Forbes article last Feb:
Quote:
BMW has no production cap for M2. “We will make as many as the market demands,” says Fröhlich. “We have already doubled the target production. I am having trouble getting the tooling in time to produce enough. Since we have published the idea of the M2, we think demand will grow more,” he says. “We may have a one-year waiting list.” A good problem to have.
Not sure how one can translate "we think demand will grow more" with "we will make as many as the market demands" as "BMW has no plans to ramp up production".
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      08-22-2016, 09:51 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
From Forbes article last Feb:
Not sure how one can translate "we think demand will grow more" with "we will make as many as the market demands" as "BMW has no plans to ramp up production".
I think what people are saying is this:

1. They are already making as many as they can, since the factory production procedure for this car is a PITA.

2. To make more, they would have to produce less of other models, of which they sell way more of.

3. Demand is already so high that they're already making as many as they can.

When you sum the three, the conclusion is that "we will make as many as we can" basically translates to "we're trying our best, calm the fuck down".
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      08-22-2016, 09:57 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wtfbrah View Post
I think what people are saying is this:

1. They are already making as many as they can, since the factory production procedure for this car is a PITA.
"They are already making as many as they can" is a meaningless statement, since the production limitations are inherent in the current process which can change.
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      08-22-2016, 10:14 PM   #15
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I may get a CA or TX allocation in Sept (#1 waitlist at two smaller dealerships). Probably just going to sell the allocation or take delivery and sell to pay off student loans. Message me if you're interested in purchasing an allocation (if I get one)
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      08-22-2016, 10:20 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brandoningram14 View Post
I may get a CA or TX allocation in Sept (#1 waitlist at two smaller dealerships). Probably just going to sell the allocation or take delivery and sell to pay off student loans. Message me if you're interested in purchasing an allocation (if I get one)
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      08-22-2016, 10:38 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brandoningram14 View Post
I may get a CA or TX allocation in Sept (#1 waitlist at two smaller dealerships). Probably just going to sell the allocation or take delivery and sell to pay off student loans. Message me if you're interested in purchasing an allocation (if I get one)
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      08-22-2016, 10:40 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
"They are already making as many as they can" is a meaningless statement, since the production limitations are inherent in the current process which can change.
lolwut

you do realize that changing the production process for a car like the m2 could be an extremely time-consuming and expensive project that could impact the production of other cars?

this is pretty basic stuff. bmw knows there are waiting lists and bmw knows that there's a ton of demand for the m2. they aren't just refusing to produce it because they just feel like fucking everyone over. they're having trouble producing it because that's the way production factories work. they're complicated and take lots of man-hours to make significant changes.
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      08-22-2016, 11:04 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wtfbrah View Post
you do realize that changing the production process for a car like the m2 could be an extremely time-consuming and expensive project that could impact the production of other cars?
I doubt the changes made so far to increase production and any further changes have impacted or will impact the production of the other cars. No one knows...
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      08-23-2016, 01:32 AM   #20
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I don't see BMW suddenly increasing production of the M2 significantly (then again what do I know), I doubt they want to end up with a surplus of these cars sitting on lots like they have experienced with cars like the I8. It seems to me that right now they have a good situation. Lots of folks dying for their product and willing to wait. Cars sold before they arrive at dealers and selling for at least MSRP and dealers begging for more. If they overproduce this niche product they could create the opposite of issues. We know that BMW will build this car for several model years and do a LCI, I suspect the M2 is going to be a long term model. The car is built on a line with other cars that likely deliver more profit per unit so this is probably a delicate balancing act not to mention that they are reliant on suppliers to provide some parts that are unique to the M2 so the capacity of those companies is a factor also.

Who knows? I suspect we will see a bunch of happy campers here the first week of September.
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      08-23-2016, 07:19 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pruettfan View Post
I don't see BMW suddenly increasing production of the M2 significantly (then again what do I know), I doubt they want to end up with a surplus of these cars sitting on lots like they have experienced with cars like the I8. It seems to me that right now they have a good situation. Lots of folks dying for their product and willing to wait. Cars sold before they arrive at dealers and selling for at least MSRP and dealers begging for more. If they overproduce this niche product they could create the opposite of issues. We know that BMW will build this car for several model years and do a LCI, I suspect the M2 is going to be a long term model. The car is built on a line with other cars that likely deliver more profit per unit so this is probably a delicate balancing act not to mention that they are reliant on suppliers to provide some parts that are unique to the M2 so the capacity of those companies is a factor also.

Who knows? I suspect we will see a bunch of happy campers here the first week of September.
What no one has mentioned in this thread (it has been mentioned in others) is that there is a lack of motivation for BMW to produce more M2s. They make way less on an M2 than they make on the other cars being produced in Liepzig. It is basically a halo car that they hope will lead to upsells and downsells.

Dealers on the other hand likely do just fine on their profit in the M2 supply chain. So of course they see excess demand as a huge profit potential if they can get more in. So they are saying all the right things to customers that want to hear it. In the meantime, they are playing the upsell and downsell game to keep potential buyers from walking elsewhere. If they feel they are losing BMW sales in general by the constraint, and those lost sales amount to more than the profit from the other Liepzig products, THEN we might see a shift.

Given the above, I am not hopeful of a ramp up, but will be patient (as I cannot find another car that ticks all my boxes like the M2). If the supply constraint continues, it will do nothing but help me when I get my car, by slowing depreciation
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      08-23-2016, 07:53 AM   #22
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I am #1 for the next allocation batch at a large dealership - so hoping and "likely" mine will be on order in September.
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