08-22-2016, 09:48 AM | #1 |
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Allocations for October / November/ December (U.S.)
It's about that time so I decided to get the discussion rolling for the next roll out of allocations that are likely to come the second week of September.
I figured we are close enough and there are plenty of "sleeper agents" on here getting anxiety for this next roll out of allocations. Personally I've always believed I was part of this batch (got a #7 spot at a local dealer last October a day after official announcement) and have been holding steady since, trying my hardest to not be annoying to my CA and SA lol. Anything beyond the next batch , presumably December orders, will have me defeated personally Anyone out there that have been hinted about history repeating itself and a new 3 month span of allocations being dropped in the U.S? |
08-22-2016, 10:54 AM | #2 |
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Yup, but it won't be many more cars than the last batch.
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08-22-2016, 11:05 AM | #3 |
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RE: Allocations for October / November/ December (U.S.)
Wasn't BMW expected to ramp up the volume of M2 production once the production line kinks were worked out? I would expect the allocations to be going up A LITTLE BIT now that the 2017 models are being produced.
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08-22-2016, 12:44 PM | #4 | |
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BMW has no plans to ramp up production and there are no "kinks" on the line - they can only make so many because of limitations on how to physically assemble the cars, it has nothing to do with "kinks". Best case scenario, with everything working super smoothly, they maybe, just maybe, can get 10 cars done in a day. Average has been 2-5. |
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08-22-2016, 12:57 PM | #6 | |
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08-22-2016, 01:37 PM | #7 |
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And keep in mind that the New X2 starts coming down the line soon at the same plant so I do not see the M2 getting any more capacity.
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08-22-2016, 01:57 PM | #8 |
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Just got a #8 spot on the list at a local high volume M dealership although now not positive if I want the car.
How this winter goes might be the deal-changer. Best case scenario, dealer gets 3-4 allocations (they've been averaging 2) and maybe someone drops off the list. I could live with being #3. Worst case, they get 1 (or zero ) allocations and in that case I'd probably decide it's not worth the wait. |
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08-22-2016, 02:01 PM | #9 | |
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But to be fair, you are also speculating that it wont happen and that there is in fact no way that they can become more efficient. I dont think anyone would be shocked if BMW is able to create a few more units this time around. |
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08-22-2016, 02:05 PM | #10 | ||
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They may be able to make a few more, but unlikely worldwide production would change by more than 3-5%, if that. |
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08-22-2016, 03:17 PM | #11 |
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08-22-2016, 04:20 PM | #12 | |
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From Forbes article last Feb:
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08-22-2016, 09:51 PM | #13 | |
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1. They are already making as many as they can, since the factory production procedure for this car is a PITA. 2. To make more, they would have to produce less of other models, of which they sell way more of. 3. Demand is already so high that they're already making as many as they can. When you sum the three, the conclusion is that "we will make as many as we can" basically translates to "we're trying our best, calm the fuck down". |
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08-22-2016, 09:57 PM | #14 |
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"They are already making as many as they can" is a meaningless statement, since the production limitations are inherent in the current process which can change.
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08-22-2016, 10:14 PM | #15 |
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I may get a CA or TX allocation in Sept (#1 waitlist at two smaller dealerships). Probably just going to sell the allocation or take delivery and sell to pay off student loans. Message me if you're interested in purchasing an allocation (if I get one)
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08-22-2016, 10:20 PM | #16 |
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08-22-2016, 10:38 PM | #17 |
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08-22-2016, 10:40 PM | #18 | |
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you do realize that changing the production process for a car like the m2 could be an extremely time-consuming and expensive project that could impact the production of other cars? this is pretty basic stuff. bmw knows there are waiting lists and bmw knows that there's a ton of demand for the m2. they aren't just refusing to produce it because they just feel like fucking everyone over. they're having trouble producing it because that's the way production factories work. they're complicated and take lots of man-hours to make significant changes. |
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08-22-2016, 11:04 PM | #19 |
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I doubt the changes made so far to increase production and any further changes have impacted or will impact the production of the other cars. No one knows...
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08-23-2016, 01:32 AM | #20 |
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I don't see BMW suddenly increasing production of the M2 significantly (then again what do I know), I doubt they want to end up with a surplus of these cars sitting on lots like they have experienced with cars like the I8. It seems to me that right now they have a good situation. Lots of folks dying for their product and willing to wait. Cars sold before they arrive at dealers and selling for at least MSRP and dealers begging for more. If they overproduce this niche product they could create the opposite of issues. We know that BMW will build this car for several model years and do a LCI, I suspect the M2 is going to be a long term model. The car is built on a line with other cars that likely deliver more profit per unit so this is probably a delicate balancing act not to mention that they are reliant on suppliers to provide some parts that are unique to the M2 so the capacity of those companies is a factor also.
Who knows? I suspect we will see a bunch of happy campers here the first week of September. |
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08-23-2016, 07:19 AM | #21 | |
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Dealers on the other hand likely do just fine on their profit in the M2 supply chain. So of course they see excess demand as a huge profit potential if they can get more in. So they are saying all the right things to customers that want to hear it. In the meantime, they are playing the upsell and downsell game to keep potential buyers from walking elsewhere. If they feel they are losing BMW sales in general by the constraint, and those lost sales amount to more than the profit from the other Liepzig products, THEN we might see a shift. Given the above, I am not hopeful of a ramp up, but will be patient (as I cannot find another car that ticks all my boxes like the M2). If the supply constraint continues, it will do nothing but help me when I get my car, by slowing depreciation |
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