[norMcal]

Originally Posted by akkando

In the comments he said he ordered the car and in between then and pick up in Europe his young son had some developmental issues so now he wants to sell the car so he can deal with his son's issues. He said he picked up the car in Germany and drove it like 20 miles to to drop it off, and flew back 12 hours later. So basically he picked up for Euro deliver but flew right back after receiving the car. Car had just over 20 miles on it when it got to the US.

He did mention he hopes he can make some money on the car, but that seems impossible to me.

I guess it pays to read the comments. Sorry for the guy having his Euro Delivery ruined and hope his son is OK. Puts things in perspective what's important.

Regardless, I agree with you regarding profit. Seems unrealistic at this point.

Originally Posted by jaykoolzboy

My 2 cents


1. M2 was never intent to be a collector car, however the character of the car is capable of being one in the future.

2. It's going to depreciate just like any other M cars, however the value is really about 8 or 10 years from now where 6MT RWD compact size sports car is completely distinguished from the mainstream lineups.

3. If you want to invest in something fun and special, just buy bitcoins.

4. Enjoy your M2 while you can, the future road-map for convention compact 6MT RWD petrol engine machine is very limited.


Enjoy it is everything I can say.

1.) Yes, not at the moment.

2.) Agreed. Best time to buy M cars seems to be about 6-8 years old. After that clean ones tend to go up again. It's actually the smartest route to go and I've been doing so as of late.
Time to sell the e46 M3 and get an e92 M3 for a few years, before getting an M2 ;-).

3.) Possibly, but then again, usually when the herds go for an investment, it's time to get out.

4.) It looks to be that way.

[bobert]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Agreed. Best time to buy M cars seems to be about 6-8 years old. After that clean ones tend to go up again. It's actually the smartest route to go and I've been doing so as of late.
Time to sell the e46 M3 and get an e92 M3 for a few years, before getting an M2 ;-).

Smart business, no question. I would do the same thing if I didn't have a genetic/inherited disease that compels me to want new cars.

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by bobert

Smart business, no question. I would do the same thing if I didn't have a genetic/inherited disease that compels me to want new cars.

I want to buy used cars, but my wife won’t let me😓

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by bobert

Smart business, no question. I would do the same thing if I didn't have a genetic/inherited disease that compels me to want new cars.

I was the same way for a looong time. Having to support wife, kids, dogs, house etc, and thinking about retirement down the road, forced me to go the change things up a bit.

Originally Posted by Bt12

I want to buy used cars, but my wife won’t let me😓

Preaching to the choir. My wife got tired of my car ADD and I was only able to convince her that I needed one extra car for HPDE's. If it was up to me, I'd have a few others and would have invested my 401k money in some classics by now.

[M3 Adjuster]

I wonder if anyone in this thread is also watching the " pricing, new orders and European delivery orders " thread ... which is still quite active ?!

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I wonder if anyone in this thread is also watching the " pricing, new orders and European delivery orders " thread ... which is still quite active ?!

Demand isn't going to go away from one day to another, especially not on a great car like this. It's just that there is no shortage of cars anymore, for anybody that wants one.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I wonder if anyone in this thread is also watching the " pricing, new orders and European delivery orders " thread ... which is still quite active ?!

I guess it is active in the sense of a one or two posts every day with hardly any pricing or other useful information in it . .. . . .

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

I wonder if anyone in this thread is also watching the " pricing, new orders and European delivery orders " thread ... which is still quite active ?!

Just did a search on Autotrader for NEW 2018 M2's. 118 matches cam up. I did not check every single listing, maybe some were duplicates or not new ones, but from what I can tell at first glance it looked accurate.

Note that many are listed @ MSRP and several for $1000 below it. You don't think that is vastly different from where we were not too long ago? I bet my bottom dollar that I can find a dealer at the end of this month (typical best time to buy a car) and talk them down to $750-$100 over invoice, which is cheaper than many of the used cars listed.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Just did a search on Autotrader for NEW 2018 M2's. 118 matches cam up. I did not check every single listing, maybe some were duplicates or not new ones, but from what I can tell at first glance it looked accurate.

Note that many are listed @ MSRP and several for $1000 below it. You don't think that is vastly different from where we were not too long ago? I bet my bottom dollar that I can find a dealer at the end of this month (typical best time to buy a car) and talk them down to $750-$100 over invoice, which is cheaper than many of the used cars listed.

What would be interesting would be to follow the listings on Autotrader/Cars.com/other sites and to see what happens with sales and price changes over a month or so, to get a better feel for the market. This would not be as good as having actual sales pricing data, but would be better than what we have now.

I obviously can't speak for dealers, since they are in the car business, but for individuals who want to unload a car, a month seems like an eternity. Once listed most private sellers will refrain from using the car much, to avoid putting on miles and risking damage to the car. Usually, a car is listed for sale because the seller wants to buy something else, and not being able to do so is a nuisance.

With a dealer you are probably correct in your tactics, and the end of the month and year are approaching. I think the deals will only improve over the next few months as the engine changeover to the S55 approaches. I believe there will be quite a few people who have deposits down now who are going to bail as the news of the new engine disseminates.

I have myself dropped back into the "maybe" category as applies to this car (the M2). I've been driving my 2013 135i Coupe around 400 miles the last few weeks, and this car has low miles (<20K), has the ppk engine flash bringing the hp up to 320, plus has some M3 suspension parts, an M steering wheel, M (ZHP) shifter, and M Sport seats. I rather like the car and don't feel that it is vastly inferior to the M2, plus it has hydraulic steering, which I consider to be highly preferable to EPS, even as executed on the M2. Since this is the car that I would trade in on the M2, and since the wallet biopsy with the trade would be rather large, I may just keep what I have and call it a day. Plus, I have a 1M for the summer, plus other cars.

One thing is for sure and that is that I won't be paying up the wazoo for this car, I'll just take a pass.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by champignon

What would be interesting would be to follow the listings on Autotrader/Cars.com/other sites and to see what happens with sales and price changes over a month or so, to get a better feel for the market. This would not be as good as having actual sales pricing data, but would be better than what we have now.

I obviously can't speak for dealers, since they are in the car business, but for individuals who want to unload a car, a month seems like an eternity. Once listed most private sellers will refrain from using the car much, to avoid putting on miles and risking damage to the car. Usually, a car is listed for sale because the seller wants to buy something else, and not being able to do so is a nuisance.

With a dealer you are probably correct in your tactics, and the end of the month and year are approaching. I think the deals will only improve over the next few months as the engine changeover to the S55 approaches. I believe there will be quite a few people who have deposits down now who are going to bail as the news of the new engine disseminates.

I have myself dropped back into the "maybe" category as applies to this car (the M2). I've been driving my 2013 135i Coupe around 400 miles the last few weeks, and this car has low miles (<20K), has the ppk engine flash bringing the hp up to 320, plus has some M3 suspension parts, an M steering wheel, M (ZHP) shifter, and M Sport seats. I rather like the car and don't feel that it is vastly inferior to the M2, plus it has hydraulic steering, which I consider to be highly preferable to EPS, even as executed on the M2. Since this is the car that I would trade in on the M2, and since the wallet biopsy with the trade would be rather large, I may just keep what I have and call it a day. Plus, I have a 1M for the summer, plus other cars.

One thing is for sure and that is that I won't be paying up the wazoo for this car, I'll just take a pass.

I believe cargurus shows how many days each car has been on market. It also shows when the price was reduced. Check it out, I think that is what you were referring to.

You are certainly not in a shortage of cool cars and can take it or leave it with the M2.

If I get one it would replace my garage queen/HPDE e46 M3, which I'm not always convinced is the smartest move. On one hand I'd like to get something new (car ADD) and on the other hand, I hate to give up the e46 M3, because it is cherry, dialed and sorted the way I want, holding its value, hydraulic steering, easier to work on, N/A engine and so forth. The disadvantages are that it isn't as usable for more "daily driving". Not that I would want to make my second car a DD, but I'd like to use it more often and with the e46 a e46 I am a bit reluctant to rack up the miles, as it is entering collectable status.
On a M2 I would not care so much racking up more miles. I probably would only keep it that long, only until I can get a 911.
The other alternative is just staying put for a few years and then get the Porsche.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

I believe cargurus shows how many days each car has been on market. It also shows when the price was reduced. Check it out, I think that is what you were referring to.

You are certainly not in a shortage of cool cars and can take it or leave it with the M2.

If I get one it would replace my garage queen/HPDE e46 M3, which I'm not always convinced is the smartest move. On one hand I'd like to get something new (car ADD) and on the other hand, I hate to give up the e46 M3, because it is cherry, dialed and sorted the way I want, holding its value, hydraulic steering, easier to work on, N/A engine and so forth. The disadvantages are that it isn't as usable for more "daily driving". Not that I would want to make my second car a DD, but I'd like to use it more often and with the e46 a e46 I am a bit reluctant to rack up the miles, as it is entering collectable status.
On a M2 I would not care so much racking up more miles. I probably would only keep it that long, only until I can get a 911.
The other alternative is just staying put for a few years and then get the Porsche.

I'll go over to cargurus, but when I've been there in the past they didn't seem to have the large volume of cars listed that I could find on other sites. I also don't trust their "conclusions" when they label cars as being a "good" or not so good deal. One other thing I noticed was that sellers would just take their cars off of Cargurus, then relist them slightly later and then they would show up as having just been listed, which was obviously being done so that it wouldn't look like a car had been there from the dawn of the last century.

If a Porsche is what you really seek, there are no shortage of used ones for sale, some at relatively attractive prices. You do have to worry about IMS problems in some models (roughly 1999 through 2007, non-turbos) but this isn't a huge mystery and there are fixes for a few thousand dollars. I did find dealing with Porsche sellers to be a bit complicated and unpleasant, but in the end it is do-able, and you can certainly get a nice used one for less than the cost of a new M2. Also, Porsches don't sell all that well in the winter, with the possible exception of some warm weather states, so if there is a time to buy one, it is now.

[AngryBaby]

FWIW Cars.com/Autotrader, etc are well-known to vastly overstate the availability of new M2s since they are apparently auto-added into the dealer online inventory even if pre-sold.

In the US, obviously supply today has significantly caught up with demand in much of the market but I wouldn't trust the online dealer repositories to be a remotely accurate reflection of to what degree this is true.

[Wharf Rat]

Do those sites also list cars in dealer inventory? If so, then many of them are likely sold. It's a common practice for dealerships to list new incoming (customer sold) cars as if they are available - it generates interest & may get a prospect to call or visit.
My car is listed in new inventory on dealer's website.

I still think the supply/demand is specific to cities. You'd be hard pressed to find one in the southwest... maybe in SoCal.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Wharf Rat

Do those sites also list cars in dealer inventory? If so, then many of them are likely sold. It's a common practice for dealerships to list new incoming (customer sold) cars as if they are available - it generates interest & may get a prospect to call or visit.
My car is listed in new inventory on dealer's website.

I still think the supply/demand is specific to cities. You'd be hard pressed to find one in the southwest... maybe in SoCal.

My dealer has one in inventory and has had it for a couple of months; I even got to test drive it :-) Other people posting here have commented on there being up to 7 of them sitting on dealer's lots in specific cities.

It obviously depends on where you live as to how far you would be willing to travel to either get a car immediately, to get a deal, or both. On both coasts and in some other places in the middle of the country, another dealer might be quite close or at most an hour's puddle-jumper flight away. In other areas, such as my state, your other options would be at least a couple of hundred miles away.

I bought a used Porsche 911 996 Twin Turbo this past May, and in order to get the car I wanted I flew an hour and a half and took almost 2 days to drive it ~1000 miles back. One's motivation to do this will depend on how much you want a car, the particular car for sale, your other obligations at home, the need or desire to trade in another vehicle, your financial situation, etc. I had been intensively looking for a Porsche 996 TT for months, and when the "right" car at the "right" price became available, 1000 miles distance was not going to deter me. Now that I have had the car for half a year, I think that I made the right decision, as the car has proven itself to be in the excellent condition that I assumed that it was before I bought it (as they say, with a used car, buy the seller, more than you buy the car). I made a very similar purchase of a used Z3M Coupe from Oregon several years ago, which also required a short airplane flight and a drive back home to accomplish.

I would feel way less motivated to do this sort of thing for a new car that is available all over the country, especially at a modest or no discount. I'm just not that eager, for this car. The biggest competition for a new M2 is either a used 1-Series 135i, 135is, or 1M, any of which would have advantages and disadvantages vs. the M2, but all of which other than the 1M, would be way way cheaper, plus all have hydraulic power steering, a huge plus. After a modest time interval, the used M2 market will rationalize itself (it has to, just based on economics), and then a used M2 at a significant discount to new will be another great alternative to a new M2.

All the indications are that it would probably be smartest at this time to defer a new M2 purchase for a bit, as the pricing of the current crop of M2s has nowhere to go but down, especially with the anticipated launch of the S55 version.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by champignon

I'll go over to cargurus, but when I've been there in the past they didn't seem to have the large volume of cars listed that I could find on other sites. I also don't trust their "conclusions" when they label cars as being a "good" or not so good deal. One other thing I noticed was that sellers would just take their cars off of Cargurus, then relist them slightly later and then they would show up as having just been listed, which was obviously being done so that it wouldn't look like a car had been there from the dawn of the last century.

If a Porsche is what you really seek, there are no shortage of used ones for sale, some at relatively attractive prices. You do have to worry about IMS problems in some models (roughly 1999 through 2007, non-turbos) but this isn't a huge mystery and there are fixes for a few thousand dollars. I did find dealing with Porsche sellers to be a bit complicated and unpleasant, but in the end it is do-able, and you can certainly get a nice used one for less than the cost of a new M2. Also, Porsches don't sell all that well in the winter, with the possible exception of some warm weather states, so if there is a time to buy one, it is now.

I am not a big user of CarGurus myself, and what you stated is probably true. It might not show on every car how long they've been on the market, due to the fact that they get relisted, but it would show on some, and if one is in the market and watches certain cars, then you would notice it.

Regarding Porsche. Yes, I could buy a used one in that price range and take care of the IMS bearing, but I really have my eyes set on the 991, which have not depreciated enough yet, at least not a MT Carrera S, and certainly not the GTS or GT3, which would be the ultimate. I really love what Porsche did with the 991, and to me they have gotten back to the looks of the 993's, with more pronounced fender flares and shorter overhangs. I never liked the 996, and to a lesser degree the 997, not to say they aren't good cars, but they just look dull.

Originally Posted by AngryBaby

FWIW Cars.com/Autotrader, etc are well-known to vastly overstate the availability of new M2s since they are apparently auto-added into the dealer online inventory even if pre-sold.

In the US, obviously supply today has significantly caught up with demand in much of the market but I wouldn't trust the online dealer repositories to be a remotely accurate reflection of to what degree this is true.

Originally Posted by Wharf Rat

Do those sites also list cars in dealer inventory? If so, then many of them are likely sold. It's a common practice for dealerships to list new incoming (customer sold) cars as if they are available - it generates interest & may get a prospect to call or visit.
My car is listed in new inventory on dealer's website.

I still think the supply/demand is specific to cities. You'd be hard pressed to find one in the southwest... maybe in SoCal.

I'm sure those sites are not the final word in how many are available, but it's a good indicator of the trend. There were certainly no where near that many listed a year ago.

Again, it is just confirming the trend and one could argue that a dealer might list one car, but actually has multiple in stock, so there is give and take on the amount of cars available.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

I'm sure those sites are not the final word in how many are available, but it's a good indicator of the trend. There were certainly no where near that many listed a year ago.

Again, it is just confirming the trend and one could argue that a dealer might list one car, but actually has multiple in stock, so there is give and take on the amount of cars available.

Absolutely. And the fact that you might be able to pick up a new M2 at $4K off of MSRP in Virginia might be worth next to nothing to someone living in Nevada. These are are all going to be macro-trends, not something that is very usable to many people reading this thread today.

Still, the handwriting is on the wall, to anyone who wants to read it. Virtually all cars depreciate once you drive them off the lot; the M2 was a rare, relative exception. The M2 is going to depreciate at least as much as other M cars do, and the new reality of supply and demand being better matched than before, plus the upcoming engine substitution will do nothing good for the price of used M2s and for new ones sitting in inventory. Once the word gets out that you can just call up a dealer and buy one of these cars off a lot, this will hurt the pre-order book, as will the knowledge of the upcoming model with the S55 engine in it. Cars canceled from the pre-order book are mostly going to end up on dealer lots.

Barring some sort of incentive right now, or some intense need to get into a new or used M2 right now, it seems to me that the most prudent approach would be to sit back and wait for a deal to come to you, rather than actively pursuing one of these cars now. Patience is a virtue.

Just my take.

[akkando]

Certainly the market has changed but m2s have not yet flooded the lots. I keep checking around Seattle so my parents can go see one, but they're pretty much never in stock. Last weekend there were two on dealer lots, one bring used. Today those are gone and just two private sales, 1500 miles for 61k and 10k miles for 54k.

Now obviously if people are getting off MSRP on new the market is not the same as when I bought 11 months ago, but the m2 hasn't quite caught up to demand everywhere.

As I have said before, I expect the s55 version to wreck the n55 value. Wonder the price a year from now between a MY17 240 and an m2?

[champignon]

Originally Posted by akkando

Certainly the market has changed but m2s have not yet flooded the lots. I keep checking around Seattle so my parents can go see one, but they're pretty much never in stock. Last weekend there were two on dealer lots, one bring used. Today those are gone and just two private sales, 1500 miles for 61k and 10k miles for 54k.

Now obviously if people are getting off MSRP on new the market is not the same as when I bought 11 months ago, but the m2 hasn't quite caught up to demand everywhere.

As I have said before, I expect the s55 version to wreck the n55 value. Wonder the price a year from now between a MY17 240 and an m2?

The MY 2017 240i will command a much lower % of its original purchase price than will an M2 of the same age. There is no reason to expect that a regular 2 Series car such as the 240i will depreciate slower than, for example, the 1-Series cars have depreciated. Even my 2013 135i Coupe, bought 2 years and 4 months ago for $28K (a very good deal at the time, vs. it's original MSRP of $46,425) has already depreciated down to around $20K. So my 135i Coupe is now, at 4 years and a few months of age, is now "worth" about 43% of its price when new.

I would expect any regular 2-Series car to follow this general depreciation trend; there is no reason to think that the few doodads associated with the "fake M" cars will reduce their depreciation curves.

Real M cars such as the M2, depreciate somewhat slower than this, which is just the reality of the resale market.

In the end it will be good for the overall M2 market to have it depreciate along a predictable curve. Those to whom that new car smell, and knowing that their car was bought new, is important, will buy new ones. Those who don't care as much about getting a new car and for whom a well-treated used example represents value, will be the people who will buy your formerly-new car from you when you decide to unload it.

With the previous situation, where the M2s were hard to get and used ones were not depreciating much, there were only so many people out there who would pay a new car's price for a used one. Once that small market is satisfied, then the owner/seller is caught between being unable to get rid of their used car, or having to feel like a jerk for having sold a car at "way under market" when in fact there was almost no real market for the car at the price it sold for when new.

Cars are not an investment, nor a store of value. There are rare situations where a car will hold its value, but in most cases these will not last. It is to everyone's benefit that the new and resale markets be transparent; only then can a buyer know how much a given car is going to cost him over any period of ownership.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by akkando

Certainly the market has changed but m2s have not yet flooded the lots. I keep checking around Seattle so my parents can go see one, but they're pretty much never in stock. Last weekend there were two on dealer lots, one bring used. Today those are gone and just two private sales, 1500 miles for 61k and 10k miles for 54k.

Now obviously if people are getting off MSRP on new the market is not the same as when I bought 11 months ago, but the m2 hasn't quite caught up to demand everywhere.

As I have said before, I expect the s55 version to wreck the n55 value. Wonder the price a year from now between a MY17 240 and an m2?

I'm sure in areas like Seattle, SF Bay, LA the cars still move a bit quicker, but the overall picture has changed. As far as the two sales you've mentioned; it proves that there are fools out there that make impulsive and/or emotional purchases. Or they rather pay a little more to buy from a local dealer, or have not done their homework.

Did a quick search and narrowed the criteria to cars with less than 3000 miles and under $52k (asking) price. I bet you'd be surprised to hear that there were still 30 cars to chose from.

[norMcal]

Just checked the BaT listing and the bidding is up to $55k. Pretty foolish IMHO, because with the 5% fee this car will already cost them $57.5k and there are dealers selling for less than that price.

One thing I didn't realize was that this is a 2018 MY. I thought it was a 2017, so $55k is not completely nuts yet, since the car is virtually new, but if it goes any higher, I would seriously question the buyers intellect.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Just checked the BaT listing and the bidding is up to $55k. Pretty foolish IMHO, because with the 5% fee this car will already cost them $57.5k and there are dealers selling for less than that price.

One thing I didn't realize was that this is a 2018 MY. I thought it was a 2017, so $55k is not completely nuts yet, since the car is virtually new, but if it goes any higher, I would seriously question the buyers intellect.

Hold the presses; he might be smarter than us . . . . here we are wasting our time navel gazing on this forum, while he (or she, the bidder) is in the process of buying a semi-used vehicle.

Of course, what we are doing doesn't cost anything, it's only saving grace, plus time spent here is time not spent buying stuff online in this holiday season, another benefit :-)

[M2Nebula]

Originally Posted by champignon

The MY 2017 240i will command a much lower % of its original purchase price than will an M2 of the same age. There is no reason to expect that a regular 2 Series car such as the 240i will depreciate slower than, for example, the 1-Series cars have depreciated. Even my 2013 135i Coupe, bought 2 years and 4 months ago for $28K (a very good deal at the time, vs. it's original MSRP of $46,425) has already depreciated down to around $20K. So my 135i Coupe is now, at 4 years and a few months of age, is now "worth" about 43% of its price when new.

I would expect any regular 2-Series car to follow this general depreciation trend; there is no reason to think that the few doodads associated with the "fake M" cars will reduce their depreciation curves.

Real M cars such as the M2, depreciate somewhat slower than this, which is just the reality of the resale market.

In the end it will be good for the overall M2 market to have it depreciate along a predictable curve. Those to whom that new car smell, and knowing that their car was bought new, is important, will buy new ones. Those who don't care as much about getting a new car and for whom a well-treated used example represents value, will be the people who will buy your formerly-new car from you when you decide to unload it.

With the previous situation, where the M2s were hard to get and used ones were not depreciating much, there were only so many people out there who would pay a new car's price for a used one. Once that small market is satisfied, then the owner/seller is caught between being unable to get rid of their used car, or having to feel like a jerk for having sold a car at "way under market" when in fact there was almost no real market for the car at the price it sold for when new.

Cars are not an investment, nor a store of value. There are rare situations where a car will hold its value, but in most cases these will not last. It is to everyone's benefit that the new and resale markets be transparent; only then can a buyer know how much a given car is going to cost him over any period of ownership.

Wow, I didn't realize there was this much bandwidth out there in Idaho.