[champignon]

Originally Posted by Bluenose-2er

S55 sounds like a loud, sustained fart when revved.

That settles it for me, I need the S55 for those socially challenged moments :-)

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by Bluenose-2er

Prices might not plummet (unless BMW decides to become a charity organization and offer the M2 Comp with no price hike from the base M2), but they have reached a point when they will continue to depreciate at a normal pace... or at least a normal M-car pace. Waiting will mean lower prices, as it does with all cars... but not necessarily drastically lower (unless that charity scenario arises).

S55 is a better engine, but the N55 is a really great engine too. S55 is closed deck, twin turbo and a bunch of other upgrades... some of which made it to the N55, some of which did not. N55 is open deck, twin-scroll single turbo. S55 has more tuning headroom stock, N55 has some room but would need a new turbo to get a lot more. S55 is a typical twin turbo that kicks you in the pants when it hits. N55 is smoother and more like an NA engine. Both are about the same emissions-wise. S55 sounds like a loud, sustained fart when revved. N55 sounds awesome, has wonderful crackle and burble, and brings smile to your face.

Under regular use, you will likely never need more than the N55 can give you in the city or cross country on winding roads just enjoying being alive. If you like to occasionally goose it and scare yourself... the N55 will do that too. If you like to track, like stoplight drag racing or other illegal activities, or just like bragging rights, you will need more.

Sounds to me like the N55 is actually a better choice.

Originally Posted by champignon

I own a 996TT, which is a great car, but the reason I bought that one was that it was the only Porsche Turbo whose price resembles what it is worth, at least to me. As you state, there are a lot of high-priced used sports cars on the market. As a "student" of the used 1M market, I can say that there are a lot of them that have been on the market for 2 years or more, at very high prices. It reminds me of resort area real estate in the area where I live; people put their trophy homes on the market at ridiculously high prices and they sit there for years and years and years, all the while during which the owners go about their business and use those homes. Listing them for sale is basically the owners saying, "if you are dumb enough to pay me $4 million for my house that is worth, at most, $2.5 million, it's yours."

Final comment is that BMWs are not Porsches, and the resale market for these brands reflects that fact.

Good analogy and exactly what is going on with lots of these cars on the market. Too much speculation going on these days.

I think on the subject of the GT3, what is happening, is that the residuals on the leases are set ridiculously low. I know from a friend that his is set at 85k after 3 years, but most are listed for over $120k still. So the guys that are leasing them probably put their cars on the market 6-12 months prior to lease end, and hope someone bites. Even if they drop their asking price by $10k, they still walk away with money after paying of the residual and get in to another car.

[Potatohead-M2]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Sounds to me like the N55 is actually a better choice.

A lot of people feel that way, myself included. I just don't think now is the time to buy one.

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by champignon

If you can buy a new one right now for the same price as a used one, the market will adjust, and from the tone of your post, you for one will not like that :-)

The M2 is a good car, but no way in hell would I buy a used one for the prices being asked now.

Yep! But that is the price now.
You might not, but others will, we don't make the market. If I listed my car for $70k, would anyone buy it? No, but you see the current listings.

I will extend logic to the extreme. I really want a tesla roadster, but I'm not going to pay $250k, I'm going to wait 10 years until they are $50k and then it will be a bargain.

If you wait, of course the M2 will cost less, it is depreciating. But you won't be driving one. There are A LOT of people that paid $5k over, hence a full sticker used price might not equate to a new price. See my next post.

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by norMcal

I don't agree completely. It always boils down to supply and demand and the GT3 has certainly been a prime example of that. However, there are now A LOT of them on the used market and just because the asking prices are high, does not mean the selling prices are also. Look how long some of them have been on the market. I bet many of them are just feeling out the market. If you own a GT3, then that is most likely your 3rd or 4th car and you can afford to buy a new one. So why not list yours and see if it sells for a ridiculous amount. I doubt that many sell for that much. Who in their right mind would pay $135k for a used one, when you can buy a new one for $145k?

Yes, they have been phenomenal regarding their value retention, but they will go through the exact same thing the M2 is starting to go through, especially since the 991.2 can now be had with MT.

Flawed logic if you take a look at the market. You can't buy a new one for $145k, that is the sticker price. Cars are going for $30k over.
Check the auction market. Auction cars have sold for $130k. So how the heck is anyone going to get one for less?
This market isn't like the market for a Camry. If course the M2 will depreciate. Maybe everyone will hate the s55 M2 and the old cars will go up in value (haha). I won't count on that. The market for the M2 is a want it now market. At the moment. That will fade, if you want to wait and keep driving your Camry.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by norMcal

I don't think there is a clear formula on the M cars holding their value. All of you make valid points, but it all depends on production numbers and age of the cars. E30 M3 is the iconic one but was also pretty limited in production with only about 18k made and only about 5k coming to the US. 1M was clearly very limited with only 800 coming to the US, thus both those models are almost considered investments.

US e36 M3 is only worth something if it is very low miles or maybe the LTW model. Euro Spec would be a different story due to having the real M engine.

E46 M3's have already bottomed a few years ago and have started to appreciate again, even though they are only 11-16 years old. I bought one 2 years ago with low miles for ~$26k and there are many going for well over $30k. Even high miles ones are still demanding $15-$20k if they are clean and well maintained. That is pretty astounding for a car that on average is 13 years old and cost ~$53k new.

E9x's are the smart buy right now IMHO. From what I've seen there are very nice examples to be had for mid $30k. I suspect that they will bottom out in the high mid $20's and the clean ones with lower miles will start appreciating to over $40k again, or never drop below at all. If the E9x wasn't as porky, I would probably "upgrade" from my e46 M3 now, but I don't want to give up the weight advantage. Besides, I like the looks much better on the e46.

So here is my struggle and to get back on topic of the M2 market. I was expecting the M2 to get in to the mid $40's by now (after 2 years) and at that point I could really justify making the switch to a newer M car again. But as they were holding at MSRP, it just didn't make sense, when I can buy a very nice E9X M3 for A LOT less.
As I stated before, I can't justify having my 2nd car (or 3rd if I count my wife's) depreciate a lot while mostly sitting idle, thus I have been picking up M cars that are 1 or 2 models behind. In some ways they are just as much fun, and on top of that they retain their value.

If the M2 were to catch up on the depreciation it never went through, then I could justify making the move. I would rather have an M2 than an E9X M3, but not if it cost me $20k of depreciation over a few years. In hind sight I could have owned one the last two years and done just that, but I honestly didn't have another $30k to put towards one the last few years, and financing isn't really my preferred choice.

I really want to buy an e92 M3 and it seems like now is a good time as far as price, but it's not a good time for me as I don't have room for another car. I think they are going to go up in value for sure, but not so much they will be out of reach. I am just starting to research what kind of e92 M3 would be a smart buy, I don't know the differences in the different model years.


As far as the N55 M2 I guess it will just hover a bit above the M240 used price as I assume most people would desire an M2 over the M240, even if the M240 is newer. I guess in some sense it's going to depend on what does the new 2 series bring? That's the Gxx platform? If the future non M models are all FWD then that will help all the old RWD 2 series cars hold their value a bit. Maybe they go down before they come back up though.

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by akkando

I am just starting to research what kind of e92 M3 would be a smart buy, I don't know the differences in the different model years.

LCI, manual, carbon roof(aka no sunroof), preferably an individual color.

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Flawed logic if you take a look at the market. You can't buy a new one for $145k, that is the sticker price. Cars are going for $30k over.
Check the auction market. Auction cars have sold for $130k. So how the heck is anyone going to get one for less?
This market isn't like the market for a Camry. If course the M2 will depreciate. Maybe everyone will hate the s55 M2 and the old cars will go up in value (haha). I won't count on that. The market for the M2 is a want it now market. At the moment. That will fade, if you want to wait and keep driving your Camry.

Give it time. I acknowledged that up until now, the first 3 years of the 991, the value retention has been nothing short of spectacular on these cars. But my prediction is that they will drop ~20% soon. Because for one the lease returns are starting to come back, and owners want to unload them and recoup some of the "equity" they have in the car. As I pointed out before, residuals are set crazy low on these. Many of the sellers will run out of time, as their lease will expire. We are just now entering this phase. Maybe buyers at auctions feel like $130k is a deal, I don't now. More power to them, but there are plenty on autotrader in that range. As a matter of fact there are 200 used ones for sale used on that site.

You are probably right on dealers still asking $30k over. It's ridiculous. But honestly, if I had the means, I probably still rather spend the $30k mark up, because from a dealer you can lease the car and save on the taxes and get better rates than buying it used. AND, on these cars chances are they were tracked excessively, so why buy someone else's thrashed car, only to save a few hundred dollars per month? I haven't done the math, but what would the payments be on a used $130k GT3, financed at 72 months, versus leasing a new one from the dealer? I know my buddy pays about $2500/month leasing his, and he will sell it for $115k after 3 years, then pocketing $30k because the residual is $85k. The car was heavily tracked or it would be a deal. Can't imagine that the payments on a $130k car would be much lower, if at all.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by ryem3

The market for the M2 is a want it now market. At the moment. That will fade, if you want to wait and keep driving your Camry.

I guess I will suffer and just have to drive my 1M

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Give it time. I acknowledged that up until now, the first 3 years of the 991, the value retention has been nothing short of spectacular on these cars. But my prediction is that they will drop ~20% soon. Because for one the lease returns are starting to come back, and owners want to unload them and recoup some of the "equity" they have in the car. As I pointed out before, residuals are set crazy low on these. Many of the sellers will run out of time, as their lease will expire. We are just now entering this phase. Maybe buyers at auctions feel like $130k is a deal, I don't now. More power to them, but there are plenty on autotrader in that range. As a matter of fact there are 200 used ones for sale used on that site.

You are probably right on dealers still asking $30k over. It's ridiculous. But honestly, if I had the means, I probably still rather spend the $30k mark up, because from a dealer you can lease the car and save on the taxes and get better rates than buying it used. AND, on these cars chances are they were tracked excessively, so why buy someone else's thrashed car, only to save a few hundred dollars per month? I haven't done the math, but what would the payments be on a used $130k GT3, financed at 72 months, versus leasing a new one from the dealer? I know my buddy pays about $2500/month leasing his, and he will sell it for $115k after 3 years, then pocketing $30k because the residual is $85k. The car was heavily tracked or it would be a deal. Can't imagine that the payments on a $130k car would be much lower, if at all.

You might be right about the lease return impact, didn't factor that in. On cars.com, there are a fair number, but 2014s are already 4 years old, so the lease impact didn't happen.
When we look at listing prices is one thing, but auctions are actual trades. I think some of the dealers will lose money on these cars, must be tricky business.
Some cars are tracked, some are not. Huge disparity in good cars and beat cars. Half are garage queens.
I have another spin on the lease math. Your buddy is paying $30k a year to fucking rent a car! After 3 years he will have spent $90k on depreciation! Recouping $30k isn't going to help much, reducing the cost to $60k. Hopefully he uses it as a business expense, which dramatically changes the economics. Oh and I could well imagine someone dreaming if they think they can track a lease car for 3 years and not expect to have a lease return adjustment. Porsche dealers aren't stupid. I wonder what experiences people have with that.

[ryem3]

Originally Posted by champignon

I guess I will suffer and just have to drive my 1M

Happy to hear you're driving it!

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by ryem3

You might be right about the lease return impact, didn't factor that in. On cars.com, there are a fair number, but 2014s are already 4 years old, so the lease impact didn't happen.
When we look at listing prices is one thing, but auctions are actual trades. I think some of the dealers will lose money on these cars, must be tricky business.
Some cars are tracked, some are not. Huge disparity in good cars and beat cars. Half are garage queens.
I have another spin on the lease math. Your buddy is paying $30k a year to fucking rent a car! After 3 years he will have spent $90k on depreciation! Recouping $30k isn't going to help much, reducing the cost to $60k. Hopefully he uses it as a business expense, which dramatically changes the economics. Oh and I could well imagine someone dreaming if they think they can track a lease car for 3 years and not expect to have a lease return adjustment. Porsche dealers aren't stupid. I wonder what experiences people have with that.

Maybe some of those auction cars were lease returns, and some fools think they can flip them for a profit. At $130k they might lose some money as you suggested.
Actually my buddy is only paying one third of that "rental" fee.because he is sharing the car with two other friends and they use it solely as a track car. His own car is a GT4, which gets a lot of track use also. Now that the GT3 lease is up, he is going to sell his GT4 as well, and take possession of a 991.2 GT3 in April. Must be rough.
I forgot what year his GT3 is, but he's had it from early on and his lease is just now up, so I am not sure if the lease impact is truly there yet. Only one or two model years have expired by now.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by ryem3

Happy to hear you're driving it!

Only to church on Sundays . . . . actually do not even have winter tires for it, and will not drive it on its MPSS in the winter at all. It's up on a lift, Stabil-ed and being float charged, as I type this. Have not retired my certified 1M VO driving shoes yet :-)

[M3 Adjuster]

@norMcal


I think your statement " supply has caught up to demand is factually incorrect. "

Demand has dropped to meet supply ( in part due to the fact that savvy buyers as well as well informed dealers know that the M2 Competition coming), Not the other way around.

Just because demand for the M2 has ebbed momentarily doesn't mean that will continue.

Agree with others that " waiting for the bottom to fall" on M2 values is more a decision on limiting " how much fun will I have with my new M2. "

Confucious says:

The more one waits for the price to drop, the more time one loses enjoying their M2.

As a 1M owner, I've certainly enjoyed the price drop hype that was " definitely gonna happen" to the 1M because the M2 was coming out.

There are less than 5k M2 in the US Currently. Do people really feel that there are only say, 5001 people in the US population of 300 million that want to own an M2 ??

I don't know why anyone could feel that demand for the M2 has dropped so much that suddenly they will drop to 40k value anytime in the next 12 months.

I mean geez... CosmosMpower was confident back in April of 2016 that he was gonna pick up one for around 40-45k about 6 months after the M2 came out because

" #price drop gonna happen "

He ended up getting in line for a new car and has been enjoying his car for over a year now and prices for used models STILL hasn't gotten to the price he was originally hoping for

[norMcal]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

@norMcal


I think your statement " supply has caught up to demand is factually incorrect. "

Demand has dropped to meet supply ( in part due to the fact that savvy buyers as well as well informed dealers know that the M2 Competition coming), Not the other way around.

Just because demand for the M2 has ebbed momentarily doesn't mean that will continue.

Agree with others that " waiting for the bottom to fall" on M2 values is more a decision on limiting " how much fun will I have with my new M2. "

Confucious says:

The more one waits for the price to drop, the more time one loses enjoying their M2.

As a 1M owner, I've certainly enjoyed the price drop hype that was " definitely gonna happen" to the 1M because the M2 was coming out.

There are less than 5k M2 in the US Currently. Do people really feel that there are only say, 5001 people in the US population of 300 million that want to own an M2 ??

I don't know why anyone could feel that demand for the M2 has dropped so much that suddenly they will drop to 40k value anytime in the next 12 months.

I mean geez... CosmosMpower was confident back in April of 2016 that he was gonna pick up one for around 40-45k about 6 months after the M2 came out because

" #price drop gonna happen "

He ended up getting in line for a new car and has been enjoying his car for over a year now and prices for used models STILL hasn't gotten to the price he was originally hoping for

You can't compare the 1M market with the M2 market. ~800 vs 5k and climbing.

The price drop is happening. Just look around. Will it continue? I don't know, but chances are people aren't going to pay MSRP for cars with 10-20k miles, when the dealer is selling them for that or less, as they currently seem to be. That is just common sense.

Just one example on GarGurus where a private seller has dropped the price by $2k the other day, after the car was on the market for a couple of weeks. Last I checked he was asking $49k, and that was not the first one I've seen with an (asking) price of under $50k. So the evidence is against your argument, at least at the moment. We will see what happens when the M2 CS or whatever it is going to be comes out.

[Fear-Mongrel]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

@norMcal

There are less than 5k M2 in the US Currently. Do people really feel that there are only say, 5001 people in the US population of 300 million that want to own an M2 ??

This. Comparing the M2 to the 1M and concluding that their price trajectories can't be the same because of the difference in their production numbers misses the larger point - it's not about absolute numbers, it's about relative numbers. I believe the potential market for the M2 is much larger than that for the 1M. I'm just one guy with one opinion, but I had, and still have, no interest in the 1M. I don't care how well it performed or how rare it is - aesthetically it just doesn't appeal to me. The M2, to my eyes, is dramatically more attractive. So what if I'm not alone?

In absolute terms, yes the 1M is more rare than the M2. But in relative terms? What's more rare...3000 people chasing 800 1M, or 25,000 people chasing 5000 M2? I'm not predicting these numbers - I have no idea how many college juniors who are 2 years away from their first job are hoping for a chance at an M2, or how many Facebook programmers are waiting for the first round of their options packages to vest so they can get an M2. The point is, both the 1M and M2 boast production numbers that may be dramatically smaller than number of people who want one today, tomorrow, and 2 years from now.

[Black Gold]

I guess. But the fact is there are cars on the lots at or under msrp. That’s a fact in Houston.

If supply didn’t exceed demand this wouldn’t be the case.

[tke743]

Originally Posted by Bluenose-2er

Prices might not plummet (unless BMW decides to become a charity organization and offer the M2 Comp with no price hike from the base M2), but they have reached a point when they will continue to depreciate at a normal pace... or at least a normal M-car pace. Waiting will mean lower prices, as it does with all cars... but not necessarily drastically lower (unless that charity scenario arises).

S55 is a better engine, but the N55 is a really great engine too. S55 is closed deck, twin turbo and a bunch of other upgrades... some of which made it to the N55, some of which did not. N55 is open deck, twin-scroll single turbo. S55 has more tuning headroom stock, N55 has some room but would need a new turbo to get a lot more. S55 is a typical twin turbo that kicks you in the pants when it hits. N55 is smoother and more like an NA engine. Both are about the same emissions-wise. S55 sounds like a loud, sustained fart when revved. N55 sounds awesome, has wonderful crackle and burble, and brings smile to your face.

Under regular use, you will likely never need more than the N55 can give you in the city or cross country on winding roads just enjoying being alive. If you like to occasionally goose it and scare yourself... the N55 will do that too. If you like to track, like stoplight drag racing or other illegal activities, or just like bragging rights, you will need more.

I think that might be the best comparison I've seen for the 2 engines. I track it so I have a reason to wait. Also hoping they help the exhaust noise a bit. Early F8X's sounded like a blender chopping concrete, the later ones are as you describe above. Sound from the M2 Comp test mules we've seen on tape, appears better, but we have no idea what's real there.

[champignon]

Originally Posted by afwares

This. Comparing the M2 to the 1M and concluding that their price trajectories can't be the same because of the difference in their production numbers misses the larger point - it's not about absolute numbers, it's about relative numbers. I believe the potential market for the M2 is much larger than that for the 1M. I'm just one guy with one opinion, but I had, and still have, no interest in the 1M. I don't care how well it performed or how rare it is - aesthetically it just doesn't appeal to me. The M2, to my eyes, is dramatically more attractive. So what if I'm not alone?

In absolute terms, yes the 1M is more rare than the M2. But in relative terms? What's more rare...3000 people chasing 800 1M, or 25,000 people chasing 5000 M2? I'm not predicting these numbers - I have no idea how many college juniors who are 2 years away from their first job are hoping for a chance at an M2, or how many Facebook programmers are waiting for the first round of their options packages to vest so they can get an M2. The point is, both the 1M and M2 boast production numbers that may be dramatically smaller than number of people who want one today, tomorrow, and 2 years from now.

Really, all of this is more or less irrelevant; one person's opinion vs. another's boils down to the old line that opinions are like assholes, everyone has one . . . .

The only thing that matters is actual selling prices, which clearly and unambiguously reflect supply and demand at any instant in time.

[Bluenose-2er]

Originally Posted by norMcal

Just one example on GarGurus where a private seller has dropped the price by $2k the other day, after the car was on the market for a couple of weeks. Last I checked he was asking $49k, and that was not the first one I've seen with an (asking) price of under $50k. So the evidence is against your argument, at least at the moment. We will see what happens when the M2 CS or whatever it is going to be comes out.

If he sells for $49K, a 10% price drop for a used car is a pretty darned good hold of value.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by Black Gold

I guess. But the fact is there are cars on the lots at or under msrp. That’s a fact in Houston.

If supply didn’t exceed demand this wouldn’t be the case.

Not enough information.

If the M2 competition wasn't coming , one could make that conclusion. However the M2 comp is known to be coming. Therefore demand for the original M2 is dropping.

As is supply. Dealers aren't gonna order a bunch of older models if they don't have to.

Look at the way X3 sales dropped as the new model is coming out. X3 sales of the new model will be strong again.

Same will happen in July when the M2 Competition version comes out.

Same thing happens when the next iPhone is coming ..

Most savvy M2 buyers are wary of being " that guy " that bought the iPhone 8 knowing the iPhone X was coming. The last thing you want to do is trade the 8 back in right away ..

[champignon]

Originally Posted by Bluenose-2er

If he sells for $49K, a 10% price drop for a used car is a pretty darned good hold of value.

Certainly, it is.

Having bought a number of used cars in the last few years, including maybe 3 that are considered to be classics (996TT; 1M; Z3M Coupe) and having some sense of the automotive marketplace, I would advise against it.

The aphorism that fits best would be, "cheaper in, cheaper out." This applies to most purchases where the item being purchased is apt to be resold, such as a house or a car. That house that cost $20,000 less because it backs up to a busy road, will get you less when you resell it, because most buyers prefer to buy houses that are not exposed to lots of road noise.

Similarly, if you buy a used car with some age and miles on it, then resell it later, the miles and age the car had on it when you bought it used will also effect the resale price. If on the other hand you bought new for several thousand dollars more, you will only lose whatever the depreciation there is from when you bought it new, and the extra depreciation in the case of the used M2 cited doesn't compensate enough.

Don't get me wrong, I love to buy slightly used cars at advantageous prices; I did that with my 2013 135i coupe, and with my 135is convertible. But I saved around 40% on each of those, and they were only 2 years old and had low mileage at my time of purchase.

Here, with this M2, you appear to get the worst of both worlds; a minuscule discount plus age and mileage, and to boot, no new car smell!