BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BMW M2 Forum > BMW M2 Discussions > Supply has finally caught up with demand

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      11-27-2017, 08:09 AM   #1
norMcal
Lieutenant
norMcal's Avatar
United_States
285
Rep
552
Posts

Drives: 2016 Porsche GT4 & 2013 VW GTI
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Grass Valley, CA

iTrader: (1)

Supply has finally caught up with demand

I've been watching the used market on the M2 for a while and it seems that the prices are finally getting a bit more "normal". I mean for the first couple of years now, even used M2's were going for almost MSRP or more, at least the asking prices were set there. Maybe it was a 1M carryover effect, but now that supply has met demand, the cars might actually depreciate like they should.
I have now seen a few below $50k and even some new 2018's listed for what appears to be MSRP. Maybe the dealer markups will be over on new ones going forward also.

Coincidentally I noticed a similar thing on the GT350. Perhaps the overall market is getting softer, or it is just coincidence because both models have been around for about the same time.
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 08:31 AM   #2
tke743
Major
tke743's Avatar
United_States
739
Rep
1,066
Posts

Drives: LBB M2 Comp
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Massachusetts

iTrader: (5)

Quote:
Originally Posted by norMcal View Post
I've been watching the used market on the M2 for a while and it seems that the prices are finally getting a bit more "normal". I mean for the first couple of years now, even used M2's were going for almost MSRP or more, at least the asking prices were set there. Maybe it was a 1M carryover effect, but now that supply has met demand, the cars might actually depreciate like they should.
I have now seen a few below $50k and even some new 2018's listed for what appears to be MSRP. Maybe the dealer markups will be over on new ones going forward also.

Coincidentally I noticed a similar thing on the GT350. Perhaps the overall market is getting softer, or it is just coincidence because both models have been around for about the same time.
It might be that everyone is waiting on the M2 Competition. My CA told me that the market suddenly dried up once the rumors of S55 equipped M2 started in earnest.
__________________
Formerly - "That Guy" in the purple BMW
Appreciate 3
norMcal284.50
SW192441.50
      11-27-2017, 09:22 AM   #3
stefan
Brigadier General
stefan's Avatar
No_Country
2347
Rep
4,250
Posts

Drives: M2 Comp
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: North

iTrader: (2)

While I think some people will wait for the CS or competition or whatever the hell the rumor mill calls it, I do think we are seeing the BRZ effect. Everyone who wants one has one and sales just sharply drop off after the initial rabid enthusiast uptake.

Personally I think people are in for some sticker shock when the pricing comes out for the competition. "this much for a 2 series" will likely be the phrase.
__________________
///M Power
Appreciate 7
norMcal284.50
flyaway140.50
DOMs335D220.50
VR-Tech117.00
Artemis28911.50
      11-27-2017, 09:33 AM   #4
six-n-twins53
Amateur Tattoo Artist
808
Rep
699
Posts

Drives: 2018 M3 zcp
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ohio

iTrader: (1)

Agree with stefan. Most people who had to have them, have them. As far as the cs goes, one of the attractions of the m2 for me was the price. I had an M5 for my last car. Worth every penny. As the price goes up in the m2, my interest goes in the opposite direction
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 09:53 AM   #5
arquitecto
Second Lieutenant
arquitecto's Avatar
536
Rep
289
Posts

Drives: '18 M2 MG 6MT, '03 E39
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: FL

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 BMW M2  [0.00]
2003 BMW 530i  [0.00]
Also consider that the longer the cars have been out the more likely that some examples will start to acquire higher mileage so their resale value will reflect that as well.

It also varies by location, my local dealer still has a lengthy wait list and it has remained pretty consistent like that for the past year.
__________________
Current Car | 2018 ///M2 MG 6MT
Previous Car | 2003 E39 530i Sport
Appreciate 1
      11-27-2017, 09:58 AM   #6
jmh600cbr
Lieutenant
jmh600cbr's Avatar
Canada
265
Rep
443
Posts

Drives: G80
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Toronto

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2021 BMW G80  [0.00]
I just ordered mine a month ago and got an allocation 3 weeks later. BUT i bought it at the highest volume dealer in Canada.
__________________
2018 F87 LCI gone but not forgotten
2021 G80 6MT BSM
Appreciate 1
      11-27-2017, 10:01 AM   #7
JPizzz
Private First Class
29
Rep
134
Posts

Drives: Porsche Boxster S
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: pa

iTrader: (0)

KBB still lists used 16/17 with typical miles in the 50’s. I wonder how accurate that is at this point.

I’m struggling with pulling the trigger on an 18’ that I was offered $2k off msrp (no USAA), $1500 extra on my trade, and 1.9% financing. Great deal if it wasn’t for these CS rumors that has me wondering if I should wait. A nice perk for this car was the slower depreciation, which moved me away from some other models. Now who knows how it will hold up....
Appreciate 1
      11-27-2017, 10:04 AM   #8
Blurbo311
Private First Class
197
Rep
177
Posts

Drives: 2018 M2 LBB 6-Speed
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Phoenix

iTrader: (0)

I agree with the BRZ effect, most people who want one and can afford one already have one. And I'm sure there are a handful of people holding out for the CS or whatever it will be called. The demand is no longer significantly more than the supply. Same with GT350.

With that said, used M2s are still holding their value well, very few used M2s have been listed below $50k. I'm sure a few have sold for less than $50k, but asking prices for the most part have stayed north of $50k.
Appreciate 1
VR-Tech117.00
      11-27-2017, 10:12 AM   #9
champignon
Disrupter
champignon's Avatar
United_States
1562
Rep
2,484
Posts

Drives: 1M;Z3M Cp;135is Vert, 996TT
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Idaho

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stefan View Post
While I think some people will wait for the CS or competition or whatever the hell the rumor mill calls it, I do think we are seeing the BRZ effect. Everyone who wants one has one and sales just sharply drop off after the initial rabid enthusiast uptake.

Personally I think people are in for some sticker shock when the pricing comes out for the competition. "this much for a 2 series" will likely be the phrase.
Can't speak to future pricing for any competition or other special editions. Porsche has a long history of coming out with special editions and rare cars, and the prices do stick for them, but I think probably less so for BMW. Once you push the price of almost any BMW to extreme heights, people discover real super cars that can be had for not much more.

Agree very much on the "BRZ effect." I don't recall Subaru dealers being able to get above MSRP on them, nor do I recall them being very hard to find, even shortly after they were released. I found mine sitting on a dealer's lot, and bought it on a whim in June of 2013; I think I even got somewhat of a deal on it. When I bought my 2015 STi, dealers all over the country were trying to get "market adjustments," however I just drove into the dealer and they caved on that $5K adjustment immediately. Similarly, the Mk VII Golf R was hot on release, but market adjustments were a challenge to execute, and these things have finally started to depreciate significantly.

Expensive and small performance cars like the M2 are a very tiny niche in the automotive marketplace, even moreso if we are talking MT vehicles, especially in N. America, where trucks and SUVs reign supreme.

The other part of the equation which people may not be ready for, is that these (M2) cars are going to depreciate like other BMWs, or at least like the most similar BMW vehicle in the stable, the M3, does. There's been a 2 year delay in this, but it is going to start with gusto, and will accelerate with model refreshes and engine changes. Another thing that ultimately depresses demand for used M-cars, is that BMWs are not cheap to keep running, and just because one can afford to purchase a used M-car at 1/2 off it's original selling price, does not mean that one can afford to maintain and repair it; this further reduces demand for used ones.

Gravity is a very hard force to overcome :-)

The only reasons why the 1M has been immune to this depreciation, so far, are the car's unpolished quirkiness and rarity.
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 11:36 AM   #10
M3 Adjuster
Banned
Albania
7905
Rep
11,785
Posts

Drives: 1M, X1 M Sport, E46 325ic
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Dallas, Tx

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jmh600cbr View Post
I just ordered mine a month ago and got an allocation 3 weeks later. BUT i bought it at the highest volume dealer in Canada.
Apparently according to " the BRZ effect " , you were the last person that " had to have one "
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 11:40 AM   #11
M3 Adjuster
Banned
Albania
7905
Rep
11,785
Posts

Drives: 1M, X1 M Sport, E46 325ic
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Dallas, Tx

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPizzz View Post
KBB still lists used 16/17 with typical miles in the 50’s. I wonder how accurate that is at this point.

I’m struggling with pulling the trigger on an 18’ that I was offered $2k off msrp (no USAA), $1500 extra on my trade, and 1.9% financing. Great deal if it wasn’t for these CS rumors that has me wondering if I should wait. A nice perk for this car was the slower depreciation, which moved me away from some other models. Now who knows how it will hold up....
CS Effect >>>>> BRZ effect ...

This is exactly why Manufacturers don't publish a schedule/timeline for when The next big thing will come out.

That's a hella deal on an M2.
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 11:46 AM   #12
norMcal
Lieutenant
norMcal's Avatar
United_States
285
Rep
552
Posts

Drives: 2016 Porsche GT4 & 2013 VW GTI
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Grass Valley, CA

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stefan View Post
While I think some people will wait for the CS or competition or whatever the hell the rumor mill calls it, I do think we are seeing the BRZ effect. Everyone who wants one has one and sales just sharply drop off after the initial rabid enthusiast uptake.

Personally I think people are in for some sticker shock when the pricing comes out for the competition. "this much for a 2 series" will likely be the phrase.
I agree with all of that. CS speculations have been around from the get go and as much I would like to hold out for one, there is no way I (or most others) would pay what is likely going to be a ridiculous price. Even if the MSRP was reasonable, the dealers will mark them up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by arquitecto View Post
Also consider that the longer the cars have been out the more likely that some examples will start to acquire higher mileage so their resale value will reflect that as well.

It also varies by location, my local dealer still has a lengthy wait list and it has remained pretty consistent like that for the past year.
Yes, but I narrowed my searches down to miles under 10k and most of them are still in the 3-5k range.
Yes, location matters on new ones, but the used market is nationwide and not as affected by location.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blurbo311 View Post
I agree with the BRZ effect, most people who want one and can afford one already have one. And I'm sure there are a handful of people holding out for the CS or whatever it will be called. The demand is no longer significantly more than the supply. Same with GT350.

With that said, used M2s are still holding their value well, very few used M2s have been listed below $50k. I'm sure a few have sold for less than $50k, but asking prices for the most part have stayed north of $50k.
Like I wrote. I had noticed almost the same effect on the GT350. Could not find one for under $60k it seemed, and now I have seen a few for under $50k. Sure mileage plays a factor, but it seems that both cars are filling demand after 2-3 years on the market. That means dealers will no longer be able to mark them up when new, which subsequently will effect the used car prices. Who would pay as much for a used one, when you can get a new one for the same price? The old rule used to be that a car drops 10-20% when you drive it off the lot, and that might start being the case again with supply meeting demand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by champignon View Post
The other part of the equation which people may not be ready for, is that these (M2) cars are going to depreciate like other BMWs, or at least like the most similar BMW vehicle in the stable, the M3, does. There's been a 2 year delay in this, but it is going to start with gusto, and will accelerate with model refreshes and engine changes. Another thing that ultimately depresses demand for used M-cars, is that BMWs are not cheap to keep running, and just because one can afford to purchase a used M-car at 1/2 off it's original selling price, does not mean that one can afford to maintain and repair it; this further reduces demand for used ones.

Gravity is a very hard force to overcome :-)

The only reasons why the 1M has been immune to this depreciation, so far, are the car's unpolished quirkiness and rarity.
Yep, up until now M2 owners got spoiled with great resale. The 1M affect probably helped the cause also, but once the market adjusts it will be closer to M3/M4 depreciation.
Appreciate 1
stefan2346.50
      11-27-2017, 12:46 PM   #13
gmzanatta
Colonel
gmzanatta's Avatar
Canada
1823
Rep
2,948
Posts

Drives: LBB 6MT M2 # 660/713
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: NB

iTrader: (0)

Still blows me away how worried people are over resale. Buy the car to drive it, not turn a profit.

It'll hold its price well compared others (RS3, CLA45, etc) and once the sticker shock and pudgier weight of the CS sets in, there will still be a place for the OG M2.
Appreciate 7
DETRoadster11446.00
bobert858.50
M2OG399.00
HODLM363.50
qnet676.00
      11-27-2017, 12:54 PM   #14
akkando
Major General
akkando's Avatar
5860
Rep
6,631
Posts

Drives: 17 M2 DCT LBB,11 e90 M3 ZCP IB
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Bay Area

iTrader: (1)

The 2 series has been pretty reliable so I wonder if that will affect depreciation, but BMW and M car reliability reputation will probably have its way with the value of the car.

Anyway I still think the M2 Competition is going to just dump all over the value of the N55 M2.

I guess the M2 will hover a bit above the M240. M240 is pretty young in its life cycle but they are what 42k-47k used?
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 01:13 PM   #15
norMcal
Lieutenant
norMcal's Avatar
United_States
285
Rep
552
Posts

Drives: 2016 Porsche GT4 & 2013 VW GTI
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Grass Valley, CA

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by gmzanatta View Post
Still blows me away how worried people are over resale. Buy the car to drive it, not turn a profit.

It'll hold its price well compared others (RS3, CLA45, etc) and once the sticker shock and pudgier weight of the CS sets in, there will still be a place for the OG M2.
Not sure who you are referring to being worried? I've been keeping an eye on the market in order to possible find a deal and have notice the drop now. it's an observation and has nothing to do with worry.
Appreciate 2
flyaway140.50
stefan2346.50
      11-27-2017, 02:52 PM   #16
six-n-twins53
Amateur Tattoo Artist
808
Rep
699
Posts

Drives: 2018 M3 zcp
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ohio

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkando View Post
The 2 series has been pretty reliable so I wonder if that will affect depreciation, but BMW and M car reliability reputation will probably have its way with the value of the car.

Anyway I still think the M2 Competition is going to just dump all over the value of the N55 M2.

I guess the M2 will hover a bit above the M240. M240 is pretty young in its life cycle but they are what 42k-47k used?
Disagree with the cs effecting n55 m2 value. The m2 sits perfectly where it's at. A 70k (rumors) m2 cs holds no interest for me. At that point I'm looking at an m4 or just going all in with another m5. If the m2 cs cost another 7k, I'd be considering a trade in. At m4 prices, it's not even on my radar. The future value of the affordable m2 shouldn't change due to something priced at a completely other level
Appreciate 3
      11-27-2017, 03:19 PM   #17
M3 Adjuster
Banned
Albania
7905
Rep
11,785
Posts

Drives: 1M, X1 M Sport, E46 325ic
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Dallas, Tx

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by norMcal View Post
Not sure who you are referring to being worried? I've been keeping an eye on the market in order to possible find a deal and have notice the drop now. it's an observation and has nothing to do with worry.
it was a worry for you (clearly based on your comment above! ) until the values dropped in order for you to make an observation.. so.... yea... I think @gmzanattaa had it right..
Appreciate 1
mtoosexy723.00
      11-27-2017, 03:35 PM   #18
norMcal
Lieutenant
norMcal's Avatar
United_States
285
Rep
552
Posts

Drives: 2016 Porsche GT4 & 2013 VW GTI
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Grass Valley, CA

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster View Post
it was a worry for you (clearly based on your comment above! ) until the values dropped in order for you to make an observation.. so.... yea... I think @gmzanattaa had it right..
No @gmzanatta was referring to resale

(quote: Still blows me away how worried people are over resale)


I'm not worried about resale, I'm just observing the prices finally being where they normally should be for a used car after a year or two.... 10-20% below the MSRP, not the same of above.
Appreciate 1
      11-27-2017, 03:58 PM   #19
DOMs335D
Major
Canada
221
Rep
1,073
Posts

Drives: 1991 318is; 2017 M2
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Vancouver, BC

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
1991 BMW 318is  [0.00]
2017 BMW M2  [0.00]
2011 BMW 335is  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by stefan View Post
While I think some people will wait for the CS or competition or whatever the hell the rumor mill calls it, I do think we are seeing the BRZ effect. Everyone who wants one has one and sales just sharply drop off after the initial rabid enthusiast uptake.

Personally I think people are in for some sticker shock when the pricing comes out for the competition. "this much for a 2 series" will likely be the phrase.
I think you hit the nail on the head, but I would add that the M2 has a bit more competition as well. Especially the RS3's interior might be enough to convince those that don't have the driving feel as the top priority.

It'll be interesting to see how close to the M4 the M2 "CS" will land in terms of pricing, if I were looking in that price category I would have a hard time justifying that sort of money for a car with a fraction of the options as the M4.
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 04:03 PM   #20
akkando
Major General
akkando's Avatar
5860
Rep
6,631
Posts

Drives: 17 M2 DCT LBB,11 e90 M3 ZCP IB
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Bay Area

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by six-n-twins53 View Post
Disagree with the cs effecting n55 m2 value. The m2 sits perfectly where it's at. A 70k (rumors) m2 cs holds no interest for me. At that point I'm looking at an m4 or just going all in with another m5. If the m2 cs cost another 7k, I'd be considering a trade in. At m4 prices, it's not even on my radar. The future value of the affordable m2 shouldn't change due to something priced at a completely other level
Yeah, IF it's 70k. We shall see.
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 04:24 PM   #21
stefan
Brigadier General
stefan's Avatar
No_Country
2347
Rep
4,250
Posts

Drives: M2 Comp
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: North

iTrader: (2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DOMs335D View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by stefan View Post
While I think some people will wait for the CS or competition or whatever the hell the rumor mill calls it, I do think we are seeing the BRZ effect. Everyone who wants one has one and sales just sharply drop off after the initial rabid enthusiast uptake.

Personally I think people are in for some sticker shock when the pricing comes out for the competition. "this much for a 2 series" will likely be the phrase.
I think you hit the nail on the head, but I would add that the M2 has a bit more competition as well. Especially the RS3's interior might be enough to convince those that don't have the driving feel as the top priority.

It'll be interesting to see how close to the M4 the M2 "CS" will land in terms of pricing, if I were looking in that price category I would have a hard time justifying that sort of money for a car with a fraction of the options as the M4.
I agree. So many people seem to be fine waiting for a car that will outprice its abilities. Personally I won't be able to afford or justify it. With so many good offers right now on the n55 model I am surprised people aren't jumping on it.
__________________
///M Power
Appreciate 0
      11-27-2017, 04:37 PM   #22
Bluenose-2er
Captain
Bluenose-2er's Avatar
565
Rep
787
Posts

Drives: 2017 LBB 6MT M2
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Halifax

iTrader: (0)

I do note that an unsold 2018 M2 is in the local BMW showroom (as of last week when I went in for maintenance). We have had a very low volume sold here in Nova Scotia, so to see one sitting in the showroom was quite a surprise. Definitely a sign that supply has caught up with demand.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:42 AM.




m2
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST