Demand of M2 once CS rolls out

O Haiii · 07-31-2017, 06:18 PM

What do you think is the likelihood of the regular M2 becoming easier to obtain (~2-3k under msrp, 1-2 month wait at most) after the CS model becomes released? I would assume there would be a number of people that would prefer the CS hence the demand for the regular M2 would come down a bit...

but then again, I wouldn't have guessed in a million years that after almost 3 years the m2 would still be in this state of high demand.

Spa2k · 07-31-2017, 06:26 PM

I don't think the CS will affect M2 sales at all. If anything, M2 sales may start to slip because it will be in its 4th model year and the market is expecting something updated. Plus, the CS will be a lot more hard-core (more suited to the track), considerably more expensive and (horrors!) DCT only.

Motivate · 07-31-2017, 07:43 PM

I agree that the demand will be affected once we get to the second part of 2018 in that we will be getting very close to the next gen M2. People thinking about ordering the 2019 & 2020 models will start to think that maybe they should just wait for the next gen.

At the same time wen the CS model goes into production in March of 2018, that should add on to the decrease in demand for the regular M2. Not to say that it will be sold for below invoice, but you will see more available in stock and more sold at discounts.

I believe BMW anticipates that demand for the base M2 will die down and the CS is a good way to keep their sales going.

soco352 · 07-31-2017, 09:11 PM

The base m2 is still a pretty damn hard car to get today and I doubt snagging the CS will be any easier. Unless BMW decides to ramp up production on the CS, I would think the base m2 demand will remain high until closer to EOP. Just my thoughts.

akkando · 07-31-2017, 09:56 PM

Well if CS is DCT only, then in the US at least the way this forum tells it.... people would rather buy a van than a DCT sports car.... so the demand for the regular M2 because it has the MT option wouldn't be reduced much if at all. Maybe it makes it more in demand as people start to think there will be no more manuals soon?

Also some speculate CS will be in high demand and very low numbers. If you're already not #1 on the list at a dealer, forget about getting a CS. If that's the case then it doesn't seem like it will impact demand for regular M2 at all, because all the CS cars that will be sold, are already sold.

Your best bet for getting a discount I think is when MY18 is about to switch over to MY19 and 18s are sitting on the lot a little longer as people are holding out for 19s (engine change?).

And end of production if BMW is making noises about killing off the inline 6 in the next gen or no manual and just an auto expect demand to go up for the last model years...

bobert · 07-31-2017, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soco352

The base m2 is still a pretty damn hard car to get today and I doubt snagging the CS will be any easier. Unless BMW decides to ramp up production on the CS, I would think the base m2 demand will remain high until closer to EOP. Just my thoughts.

I'm thinking along the same lines. My guess is that overall M2 production levels won't increase, only that a certain subset will be the CS for MY2019.

zenmaster · 07-31-2017, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O Haiii

What do you think is the likelihood of the regular M2 becoming easier to obtain (~2-3k under msrp, 1-2 month wait at most) after the CS model becomes released?

What will the price of the CS be? Will it be the same proportion of increase as the M4 CS to the M4?

wanofakind01 · 07-31-2017, 11:31 PM

Doubt CS production will have a high impact against m2 sales as CS pricing will likely be at another level. M2 is a great entry price point for the performance it offers, and with 6MT as an option that won't likely be available for a track oriented CS.

You can already find some dealers willing to work with you on MY17 models now for ones that have been on the lot for over a month.

termigni · 08-01-2017, 07:31 AM

CS will be pretty limited in numbers and it will probably hit close to $80k.

I could've waited for a CS but at $80k, I passed and ordered '18 M2 for $60k.

I don't think CS will do too much on regular M2's sales volume.

O Haiii · 08-01-2017, 10:32 AM

I guess the ultimate question is are they gonna produce the CS in addition to the normal M2 production numbers or are they gonna reserve a portion of the m2 production for the cs? if latter is the case, demand will stay up. Personally I wish BMW produced more of these if this wasn't gonna be a limited production run to begin with.

chmura · 08-01-2017, 11:10 AM

If the CS is DCT only demand on the standard M2 may go up.

If you look at the poll on this forum, many people prefer the 6MT here over the DCT.

Look at Porsche and their GT3. Manual came back this time. M2 was suppose to go back to its 'roots' and be more 'raw'. Isn't that the purpose of the M2?
I would be surprised of the CS was DCT only.

bruin1md · 08-01-2017, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenmaster

What will the price of the CS be? Will it be the same proportion of increase as the M4 CS to the M4?

My understanding is that it will be just above $80K.

O Haiii · 08-01-2017, 09:32 PM

id rather get regular m2 and use 20k to mod it.

Spa2k · 08-01-2017, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruin1md

My understanding is that it will be just above $80K.

Wow - That's an M2 and a 1/2! The M2 CS will probably be 1 1/2 times the exclusivity, but will it be 1 1/2 times the performance? I have my doubts...

David1 · 08-03-2017, 02:24 PM

The more CSs they make, the less base M2s there will be.

Spa2k · 08-03-2017, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1

The more CSs they make, the less base M2s there will be.

Not neccessarily - These cars will serve totally different markets, and I don't think BMW will abandon the potential of thousands of M2 sales for hundreds of potential CS sales. There's no practical manufacaturing reason BMW can't just add the CS production to the "regular" number of M2s - unless it wants to limit production of these cars in favor of the other vehicles the plant builds.

Space gray · 08-03-2017, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spa2k

Not neccessarily - These cars will serve totally different markets, and I don't think BMW will abandon the potential of thousands of M2 sales for hundreds of potential CS sales. There's no practical manufacaturing reason BMW can't just add the CS production to the "regular" number of M2s - unless it wants to limit production of these cars in favor of the other vehicles the plant builds.

As stated in this forum before, M2 is made in the same production line as other 2-series. I think the previous poster's assumption that the CS will be made in the same production line is correct. Therefore, for every M2 CS that is made, there will be one less M2 made. That is unless BMW decides that it is OK to slow down the production line to make more M2s and M2 CS, but this would affect the total output of the plant so it would be unlikely.
You're assuming that there would be a way for M2 and M2 CS production to make up the loss of production other vehicles, but if that is true they would be doing it now and M2s would be more plentiful today. It is just a fact that some components of the M2 take more time to assemble, therefore they are spaced apart in the production line so it doesn't have to slow down.

Spa2k · 08-03-2017, 09:51 PM

I agree that the CS will be built with the other 2s in the family at BMW's Leipzig Plant; it would make no sense to duplicate much of the tooling and the production process elsewhere for such a low-production vehicle. However, there's absolutely no reason that the production runs of the other vehicles being built there couldn't be adjusted to allow for the same number of M2s to be built while several hundred CSs are produced, assuming Leipzig really is running at full capacity - especially since the annual production of the CS likely won't even reach 1% of the total annual production at Leipzig. I've also never seen any evidence that Leipzig has to slow down the line to produce the M2; in fact, it's likely just the opposite, with the line running a mix of vehicles at a steady rate - not a run of one model and then a run of another. The only thing that will slow or shut down the line is if something goes wrong with the build of a specific car, there's an equipment failure or a worker gets hurt on the line.

pruettfan · 08-04-2017, 01:59 AM

I wouldn't count on the CS having a negative impact on M2 values. They will be priced to a point where they are not competitors and the CS is not likely to be built in high enough volume to satisfy demand just as the M2 hasn't been built at that rate. Of course it is always possible that BMW produces the M2 in volume enough to reduce new pricing but I don't think that is likely, they seem to have this down to a science right now and keeping volume down has protected both new and used values which is important.

David1 · 08-04-2017, 08:25 AM

The new X2 is going to built there soon so that will limit 2 series production even more.

geogerf · 08-04-2017, 11:25 AM

I don't think M2s are hard to find; just those at MSRP.

Spa2k · 08-04-2017, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1

The new X2 is going to built there soon so that will limit 2 series production even more.

How do you know this? Why won't Leipzig just increase overall production at the plant or reduce production of one of the other models it produces?

07-31-2017, 06:18 PM	#1
O Haiii Second Lieutenant 192 Rep 228 Posts Drives: Toyota Tercel Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: Los Angeles iTrader: (0)	Demand of M2 once CS rolls out What do you think is the likelihood of the regular M2 becoming easier to obtain (~2-3k under msrp, 1-2 month wait at most) after the CS model becomes released? I would assume there would be a number of people that would prefer the CS hence the demand for the regular M2 would come down a bit... but then again, I wouldn't have guessed in a million years that after almost 3 years the m2 would still be in this state of high demand.
	Appreciate 0 Tweet Quote

07-31-2017, 06:26 PM	#2
Spa2k Major 1194 Rep 1,086 Posts Drives: '13 JCW Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: US iTrader: (0)	I don't think the CS will affect M2 sales at all. If anything, M2 sales may start to slip because it will be in its 4th model year and the market is expecting something updated. Plus, the CS will be a lot more hard-core (more suited to the track), considerably more expensive and (horrors!) DCT only.
	Appreciate 2 Ramos861.00 M3 Adjuster7904.50 Quote

07-31-2017, 07:43 PM	#3
Motivate Private First Class 42 Rep 195 Posts Drives: Shopping for a new one Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: USA iTrader: (0)	I agree that the demand will be affected once we get to the second part of 2018 in that we will be getting very close to the next gen M2. People thinking about ordering the 2019 & 2020 models will start to think that maybe they should just wait for the next gen. At the same time wen the CS model goes into production in March of 2018, that should add on to the decrease in demand for the regular M2. Not to say that it will be sold for below invoice, but you will see more available in stock and more sold at discounts. I believe BMW anticipates that demand for the base M2 will die down and the CS is a good way to keep their sales going.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

07-31-2017, 09:11 PM	#4
soco352 Private First Class 78 Rep 121 Posts Drives: F87 M2 (On Order) Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Orange County iTrader: (0)	The base m2 is still a pretty damn hard car to get today and I doubt snagging the CS will be any easier. Unless BMW decides to ramp up production on the CS, I would think the base m2 demand will remain high until closer to EOP. Just my thoughts.
	Appreciate 1 ///M2NYC1574.00 Quote

07-31-2017, 09:56 PM	#5
akkando Major General 5863 Rep 6,634 Posts Drives: 17 M2 DCT LBB,11 e90 M3 ZCP IB Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: Bay Area iTrader: (1)	Well if CS is DCT only, then in the US at least the way this forum tells it.... people would rather buy a van than a DCT sports car.... so the demand for the regular M2 because it has the MT option wouldn't be reduced much if at all. Maybe it makes it more in demand as people start to think there will be no more manuals soon? Also some speculate CS will be in high demand and very low numbers. If you're already not #1 on the list at a dealer, forget about getting a CS. If that's the case then it doesn't seem like it will impact demand for regular M2 at all, because all the CS cars that will be sold, are already sold. Your best bet for getting a discount I think is when MY18 is about to switch over to MY19 and 18s are sitting on the lot a little longer as people are holding out for 19s (engine change?). And end of production if BMW is making noises about killing off the inline 6 in the next gen or no manual and just an auto expect demand to go up for the last model years...
	Appreciate 0 Quote

07-31-2017, 11:31 PM	#8
wanofakind01 Lieutenant 282 Rep 521 Posts Drives: '17 BMW M2 6MT, '16 BMW X1 Join Date: Jun 2015 Location: DC iTrader: (3)	Doubt CS production will have a high impact against m2 sales as CS pricing will likely be at another level. M2 is a great entry price point for the performance it offers, and with 6MT as an option that won't likely be available for a track oriented CS. You can already find some dealers willing to work with you on MY17 models now for ones that have been on the lot for over a month. Last edited by wanofakind01; 08-01-2017 at 09:42 AM..
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-01-2017, 07:31 AM	#9
termigni Lieutenant Colonel 1081 Rep 1,761 Posts Drives: S2000, MacanS, M4CS Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: NJ iTrader: (0) Garage List 2018 BMW M2 [0.00]	CS will be pretty limited in numbers and it will probably hit close to $80k. I could've waited for a CS but at $80k, I passed and ordered '18 M2 for $60k. I don't think CS will do too much on regular M2's sales volume. __________________ 2020 ///M4 CS, Alpine White, DCT 2018 ///M2 LCI, Metallic Orange, 6MT, Exec Pkg, Apple.. Sold Instagram: Tommys911
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-01-2017, 10:32 AM	#10
O Haiii Second Lieutenant 192 Rep 228 Posts Drives: Toyota Tercel Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: Los Angeles iTrader: (0)	I guess the ultimate question is are they gonna produce the CS in addition to the normal M2 production numbers or are they gonna reserve a portion of the m2 production for the cs? if latter is the case, demand will stay up. Personally I wish BMW produced more of these if this wasn't gonna be a limited production run to begin with.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-01-2017, 11:10 AM	#11
chmura Colonel 1558 Rep 2,505 Posts Drives: 2019 M2 Competition Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Orange County, California iTrader: (1)	If the CS is DCT only demand on the standard M2 may go up. If you look at the poll on this forum, many people prefer the 6MT here over the DCT. Look at Porsche and their GT3. Manual came back this time. M2 was suppose to go back to its 'roots' and be more 'raw'. Isn't that the purpose of the M2? I would be surprised of the CS was DCT only. __________________ 2019 M2 Competition- October 2, 2018 ED 2011 BMW M3 Sedan Alpine White Picked up via ED 9/27/2011 & Redelivered 11/23/2011 SOLD
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-01-2017, 09:32 PM	#13
O Haiii Second Lieutenant 192 Rep 228 Posts Drives: Toyota Tercel Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: Los Angeles iTrader: (0)	id rather get regular m2 and use 20k to mod it.
	Appreciate 1 ///Cardia299.50 Quote

08-03-2017, 02:24 PM	#15
David1 Brigadier General 812 Rep 3,949 Posts Drives: 09 E92 09 X5 Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Columbus, OH iTrader: (1)	The more CSs they make, the less base M2s there will be. __________________ 2021 M2 Comp Sunset Orange \|Black with orange Stitching Dakota Leather\|Executive Pkg\|DCT
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-03-2017, 09:51 PM	#18
Spa2k Major 1194 Rep 1,086 Posts Drives: '13 JCW Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: US iTrader: (0)	I agree that the CS will be built with the other 2s in the family at BMW's Leipzig Plant; it would make no sense to duplicate much of the tooling and the production process elsewhere for such a low-production vehicle. However, there's absolutely no reason that the production runs of the other vehicles being built there couldn't be adjusted to allow for the same number of M2s to be built while several hundred CSs are produced, assuming Leipzig really is running at full capacity - especially since the annual production of the CS likely won't even reach 1% of the total annual production at Leipzig. I've also never seen any evidence that Leipzig has to slow down the line to produce the M2; in fact, it's likely just the opposite, with the line running a mix of vehicles at a steady rate - not a run of one model and then a run of another. The only thing that will slow or shut down the line is if something goes wrong with the build of a specific car, there's an equipment failure or a worker gets hurt on the line.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-04-2017, 01:59 AM	#19
pruettfan Brigadier General 1622 Rep 3,402 Posts Drives: 2017 M2, LBB, DCT, Exec Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Chandler, AZ iTrader: (0)	I wouldn't count on the CS having a negative impact on M2 values. They will be priced to a point where they are not competitors and the CS is not likely to be built in high enough volume to satisfy demand just as the M2 hasn't been built at that rate. Of course it is always possible that BMW produces the M2 in volume enough to reduce new pricing but I don't think that is likely, they seem to have this down to a science right now and keeping volume down has protected both new and used values which is important.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-04-2017, 08:25 AM	#20
David1 Brigadier General 812 Rep 3,949 Posts Drives: 09 E92 09 X5 Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Columbus, OH iTrader: (1)	The new X2 is going to built there soon so that will limit 2 series production even more. __________________ 2021 M2 Comp Sunset Orange \|Black with orange Stitching Dakota Leather\|Executive Pkg\|DCT
	Appreciate 0 Quote

08-04-2017, 11:25 AM	#21
geogerf First Lieutenant 116 Rep 306 Posts Drives: MY17 LBB M2 Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: Pasadena iTrader: (1) Garage List 2017 BMW M2 [0.00]	I don't think M2s are hard to find; just those at MSRP.
	Appreciate 0 Quote