[bradleyland]

I would add the following words of caution:

It is very difficult to gauge a used-car market by listing price, especially for a car like the M2. There are two major factors that drive sellers to ask ridiculous prices:

1) The M2 is a low-volume car, which means there aren't many new models available. On the used car side of things, the car is only ~12 months old, so there is very little supply. This leads to a scenario where dealers are more than happy to put a used M2 on the lot at a crazy asking price, because they know they can drop the price and sell the car at any time.

2) The 1M carry over effects are tremendous. Now 6 years on, 1M prices are still holding up incredibly well. There are easily identifiable reasons for this: very low production numbers, well received/reviewed, great development story, positive ownership stigma (exclusivity, sporting, eclectic). The M2 is experiencing some carry over from this, but used prices haven't been tested in the market. Sellers are absolutely going to experiment to try and capitalize on the 1M carry over. Just recognize that it may or may not play out.

None of the above should be interpreted as discouraging the purchase of an M2. I think the car will very easily beat the 50% residual mark. I just don't know if I think they'll make 70-75%. BMW shows every intention of continuing — and even expanding — the M2 line-up. Another unknown is how the presence of a model like the M2 CS will affect base M2 values. That's a major wildcard.

The strategy I'm advising against is someone buying an M2 and treating it like a 1M or a 911 GT3, where you can expect to buy the car and turn it around in 2-3 years to recover your full investment (or even turn a profit). There are still a ton of unknowns in the M2 market, which I believe is the primary motivator for the low residual ratings. Finance companies and insurance providers are masters of quantitative evaluation. Somewhere inside BMW finance, there is a massive table of residual rates with confidence intervals and detailed market analysis.

Speculative enthusiasts each have their own risk tolerance, but the cut and dry analysis leans heavily toward more traditional residuals (55%-65%).