This is a choice between two options, but it's not simply 6MT vs DCT:
- BMW must achieve separation between models or they will hurt margins. Marketing wants clear messaging and identities- models with specs that are too similar create uncertainty, are tested against each-other instead of the competition, and generally sow discontent.
- The M4 and M2 will sit very close to each-other in terms of price point, engine, configuration, performance, etc.
- BMW separated the 1M from the M3 in many ways: by giving it more of a knife-edge handling, a very high torque 6 instead of the linear 8, under-rated the power output, and obviously by offering a manual only.
- Despite this the separation was uncomfortably close, witness the 1M/ M3 rancor often seen here, or the fact that EVO said that the 1M was better than M3. This probably didn't do wonders for M3 sales, though the M3's run was nearly over.
Given all this, BMW faces a tradeoff with the M2:
- If BMW offers a DCT, it will both increase the M2's price-point and performance, decreasing the separation between the M2 DCT and M4 manual.
- As a result, BMW will probably have to decrease the performance of the M2, cutting power or increasing weight, in order to maintain a sufficient gap.
Thus I suspect we have the option of a manual only M2 that's closer to the M4 in terms of power to weight, but achieves separation in part by the transmission, or we can get a car with a DCT option that needs to achieve separation by other means. Most likely including reducing its power.
You can see here how BMW's current and historical M car lineups stack up, and figure out where you'd like to be in terms of price/ performance. Just keep in mind that you probably won't get "better than the M4":
