Quote:
Originally Posted by stefan
The hell.. is the S55 really worth that much to you? Let's conservatively say the competition will be only $8K over the base (I actually suspect higher). Dealer markups could be $5K right off the bat. So right away before you've even got behind the wheel, after your $4500 discount, the price difference between the competition and the model you can drive *right now* is $17,500 nevermind financing incentives.
That just seems bonkers to me plus you've got a years' wait ahead of you. Why bother?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster
This is actually not correct.
The more affordable M cars hold their value well. M3 of all generations , Z3M, Z4 M, 1M , and thus far M2. Has the bottom fallen out of E9x M3 pricing ? I haven't looked in a while but they held steady for quite awhile in the $35-40 K range with original msrp of 65-70k.
the more expensive models....5,6,7 and X SAV models of course have tons of depreciation.
BMW Convertibles, particularly M car convertibles  start off around 6-8k higher than the hardtops and depreciate quickly to values around 2k below the hardtop models.
With the E36 M3 and E46 M3, add an automatic box and it would lose another 1-2k in value. I haven't really looked at at E9X M verts plus the metal roof is a different animal.
BMW convertibles however make excellent purchases as 7-10 year old vehicles when lightly used - ask me how I know! - I've had three different E46 convertibles (including an M) in my garage over the years. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by champignon
I think you have to define what you mean by M-Cars holding "their value well."
Even my 2000 Z3M coupe, in outstanding condition, with around 60K miles (not a lot for an 18 year old car) had an original MSRP of $42,870 when it was sold in late 1999. A very optimistic estimate of what it might sell for today would be $30K, probably more like $27K. And I've put several thousand into it over the last 2.5 years, during which it has accumulated maybe 2500 miles.
According to Dr. Google, a 1999 US Dollar is worth around $1.47 today. So, in 2017 dollars the car cost $63K, and is now worth well less than 50% of that. And this is for one of the "poster children" for rare BMW M cars, in that around 3000 were sold in N. America, and certainly many less remain in "collectible condition" after 18 years.
Further, most of the depreciation of an M-Car, or any BMW, is going to happen quickly. No one in their right mind wants someone else's used car, even if only a couple of years old, when they can buy a brand new one for about the same price.
I don't mind buying someone else's used car, but I want a deal on it, otherwise I would just buy new, and so would most other people. The only way that this would not be a factor would be if you couldn't find a new one to buy. But the evidence strongly points to the idea that this is not going to be a huge factor going forward, especially for the current N55 version.
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I don't think there is a clear formula on the M cars holding their value. All of you make valid points, but it all depends on production numbers and age of the cars. E30 M3 is the iconic one but was also pretty limited in production with only about 18k made and only about 5k coming to the US. 1M was clearly very limited with only 800 coming to the US, thus both those models are almost considered investments.
US e36 M3 is only worth something if it is very low miles or maybe the LTW model. Euro Spec would be a different story due to having the real M engine.
E46 M3's have already bottomed a few years ago and have started to appreciate again, even though they are only 11-16 years old. I bought one 2 years ago with low miles for ~$26k and there are many going for well over $30k. Even high miles ones are still demanding $15-$20k if they are clean and well maintained. That is pretty astounding for a car that on average is 13 years old and cost ~$53k new.
E9x's are the smart buy right now IMHO. From what I've seen there are very nice examples to be had for mid $30k. I suspect that they will bottom out in the high mid $20's and the clean ones with lower miles will start appreciating to over $40k again, or never drop below at all. If the E9x wasn't as porky, I would probably "upgrade" from my e46 M3 now, but I don't want to give up the weight advantage. Besides, I like the looks much better on the e46.
So here is my struggle and to get back on topic of the M2 market. I was expecting the M2 to get in to the mid $40's by now (after 2 years) and at that point I could really justify making the switch to a newer M car again. But as they were holding at MSRP, it just didn't make sense, when I can buy a very nice E9X M3 for A LOT less.
As I stated before, I can't justify having my 2nd car (or 3rd if I count my wife's) depreciate a lot while mostly sitting idle, thus I have been picking up M cars that are 1 or 2 models behind. In some ways they are just as much fun, and on top of that they retain their value.
If the M2 were to catch up on the depreciation it never went through, then I could justify making the move. I would rather have an M2 than an E9X M3, but not if it cost me $20k of depreciation over a few years. In hind sight I could have owned one the last two years and done just that, but I honestly didn't have another $30k to put towards one the last few years, and financing isn't really my preferred choice.